With RIAU's sudden departure, I am forced to abandon my expansionist plans and go back on the defensive. Luckily, my morale has improved enough by this point such that I should be able to hold the front even with inferior numbers.
This Russian attempt to recapture Kiev, for example, is successfully repelled.
And then this happens...
Without making peace, Poles and the Soviets agreed to freeze all fighting along their front line and will now concentrate all their efforts on other enemies. Mostly, me. And this is not just Poland, either. Same thing applies to Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Historically this happened around October 1919 and it was one of the biggest and decisive factors in allowing the Soviets to turn the tide especially against Denikin and emerge victorious in the war.
The reasons why this became possible are pretty complex. On one hand, the Soviets felt sufficiently threatened such that they decided they could no longer afford to fight for the pre-1914 borders or to "export the revolution" westward, and so they were prepared to recognize the independence of Finland, Poland, and the Baltic States as a necessary sacrifice in order to ensure victory in the civil war.
On the other hand, the secessionist states, having achieved de-facto Soviet acceptance of their main demands, were also not in the mood for advancing deeper into Russia proper. Unlike how the Bolshevik propaganda portrayed them, not only did they not have a clear stake in who wins the struggle for Moscow, but even more than that - most of them actually preferred a Red victory to a White one. Poland in particular - for a complex set of reasons Pilsudski considered dealing with Bolshevik Russia to be preferable to non-Bolshevik one, viewing the latter as a much greater long-term threat to Poland's independence. So even when he thought it was possible for the Polish troops to march on Moscow and occupy the city, he simply found it against Polish interests to do so. Denikin in his memoirs after the war accused Pilsudski of being one of the primary culprits in enabling a Bolshevik victory in Russia.
In game, there are a number of conditions that have to be met for the event to fire, but the main ones are these:
OR = {
region = { region = "Southern Russia" country = UTC data = 1 value = 40 }
region = { region = "Ukraine" country = UTC data = 1 value = 40 }
region = { region = "Russia" country = UER data = 1 value = 15 }
vp = { country = UER value = 120 }
vp = { country = UTC value = 70 }
}
In other words, whenever the Whites seem to be doing a little too well, if Poland is AI controlled, Pilsudski will order a ceasefire on the Western Front in order to allow the Reds to turn the tide. Player controlled Poland also has that option available but as a decision and the set of requirements is much smaller. As you can imagine, this makes it pretty difficult for the Whites to win the war overall. And here are the main trigger conditions for the ceasefire to end:
OR = {
NOT = {
region = { region = "Southern Russia" country = UTC data = 1 value = 10 }
region = { region = "Kaukasus" country = UTC data = 1 value = 14 } #No more than 3/24 = 12.5%
region = { region = "Ukraine" country = UTC data = 1 value = 20 } #includes crimea (12%)
region = { region = "Russia" country = UER data = 1 value = 1 }
region = { region = "Eastern Russia" country = UER data = 1 value = 1 }
region = { region = "Urals" country = UER data = 1 value = 50 }
region = { region = "Novosibirsk" country = UER data = 1 value = 100 }
}
event = { id = 2007501 days = 1260 } #May 1921
flag = ceasefireRus
}
So, once ceasefire is made, it will either break by around May 1921 (or rather 1260 days from the date of revolution, whenever that is) or whenever Whites are nearly beaten, whichever happens first. In other words, Poland will give the Reds more than enough time to crush their internal opponents, but their patience is not infinite and if the Soviets are taking too long, the ceasefire will eventually end regardless of how the RCW is going.
Where does this leave me? Well... I'm pretty much f*cked now. The best I can hope for is to try to weather the storm until the ceasefire breaks. Although even then, only Poland typically chooses to resume the war, while Finland and the Baltics sign peace treaties and exit the war entirely as their default option.
The very first thing that happens after I notice the ceasefire, is a combined Polish-Soviet assault on Mozyr. So not only they are in a ceasefire, they are actually working together now. How cute!
Luckily i'm not quite the only enemy for the Poles - they still want to finish off the "Western Russia" as well, though it won't take them very much time to accomplish this now that they've taken nearly all their troops off from the Soviet frontline.
I was forced to commit a serious force to Mozyr to repel this combined attack, at which point the Soviets attacked me in Korosten and the Russians at the same time attacked in Zhitomir.
I was able to hold Korosten but lost Zhitomir. The overall situation along the entire front is getting really dangerous, I simply do not have enough troops to cover its entire length and defend everywhere. Russians launch another attack on Kiev. Miraculously I am still able to hold it after bringing reinforcements, but just barely.
By November 1919, "Western Russia" appears to be as good as finished. Afterwards, I can expect all these troops to show up at my doorstep instead. Oh boy.
The option to surrender to Poland is still there as my "exit route" but there is absolutely nothing I would actually gain from it at this point. Furthermore, the UGA will immediately defect to Denikin if I do that.
Something's going on across the Black Sea, but there's so much happening around me that the southern shore of the Black Sea might as well be on another planet.
Western Russia is done.
Russians launch a major assault on Kiev, much better prepared than the last few, and another assault on Tarnopol. Simultanausly, the Poles launch a major attack on both Lutsk at Lviv that includes units that are coming in from the north. Given that both places are under attack at the same time, I'm unable to defend by shuffling troops back and forth between them like I used to. The situation is clearly untenable, I have to give ground somewhere.
Thus, Kiev is once again lost.