no bigger ships than battleships

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lwarmonger

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Hey, don't lump all Engineers into that category, I am one and come from a Military family - I am well aware of military things. Not to mention half the Engineers I work with are former military, the best kind!

But I was going to reply to that post myself with this comment:

"Bah, liberal-lefty Academics - they just don't want the military involved in Space at all, they regard it as their domain."

So, slightly hypocritical of me, I know...

Ha! Science for sciences sake.

But seriously, specialists in their field tend to be very good. In that field. The problem is that so many believe that they should be qualified to figure out how what they've designed should be used. Should the designer of the assault rifle be relied upon to create doctrine for an infantry squad? Should an engineer who works on artillery tell the Army how to use that artillery? Should the designer of atomic weaponry come up with the doctrine and planning for its employment? The answer to all of these questions is a resounding no!
 
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stumason

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Ha! Science for sciences sake.

But seriously, specialists in their field tend to be very good. In that field. The problem is that so many believe that they should be qualified to figure out how what they've designed should be used. Should the designer of the assault rifle be relied upon to create doctrine for an infantry squad? Should an engineer who works on artillery tell the Army how to use that artillery? Should the designer of atomic weaponry come up with the doctrine and planning for its employment? The answer to all of these questions is a resounding no!

Fair point ;)
 

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Let me teach you something about orbital travel.

The cost of moving something around the solar system is expressed in kilometres per second; this is known as Delta-V and can be thought of as the fuel cost. When you read these numbers remember that all this fuel has to be either transported into space somehow, or else generated up there. If it's transported up then that's just as expensive as moving any other fuel; if it's generated up there then we need large amounts of infrastructure in space.

The largest asteroid is Ceres. In order to get one kilogram from Ceres to Earth low orbit, you need 9.7 km/s of Delta-V. You then need to land it. As you point out, de-orbiting is cheap because you can use atmospheric braking, but it's not free: you need another one or two km/s to do it properly.

For reference, it takes about 10 km/s of Delta-V to get from Earth's surface into orbit. This is not a small quantity. Look at a picture of the Saturn-V rockets used during the Apollo program: this is what this sort of Delta-V looks like. It's extremely expensive.

By contrast, taking something from Ceres to Mars costs 8.2 km/s of Delta-V, and de-orbiting it costs another 3.6 km/s. It's expensive partly because Mars doesn't have much of an atmosphere and so you have to slow yourself for the descent via rocketry.

This means that moving the unprocessed ore to Earth rather than to Mars is actually cheaper. That last 3.6 km/s of Mars cost really hurts. This is what I mean by "at the bottom of a gravity well." Generally, you don't want to descend to planet surfaces if you can avoid it.

A lot of people have the impression that stuff is easy to just "drop" from orbit. This isn't true: stuff in orbit tends to stay in orbit, and costs energy to be de-orbited. If there's no atmosphere then things cost as much Delta-V to be taken from orbit to the ground as they do to be taken from the ground to orbit. (You can save a little energy by impacting hard rather than making a gentle landing, but if you impact too hard then it can be unhealthy: ask anyone who's been to Tunguska what happens if heavy things land with an impact.)

But wait, there's more!

Once you've refined the metal, it then needs to be lifted out of Mars' gravity well and taken to Earth. This costs another 9.3 km/s of Delta-V, plus the cost of de-orbiting to the surface of Earth. The total cost to move that ore from Ceres to Earth via Mars is about double (in Delta-V terms) what it would cost to move it straight to Earth.

But wait, there's even more!

For reference, copper ore is currently extracted on Earth at concentrations as low as 0.15%. That means that by shipping the raw ore, you're moving roughly six hundred times as much raw bulk, which needs six hundred times as much fuel. That's just copper: actually rare stuff like iridium is found at even lower concentrations.

Imagine six hundred Saturn-V rockets. How large is the profit margin on this mining again?

The alternative is to set up an orbital facility, using centrifuges to fake enough gravity for humans to live in and for industry to occur in, and use that to reduce the ore to just the valuable part. It would be an engineering challenge, as you point out, but it would have the chance of being profitable, unlike shipping unseparated rock to Mars for refining.

EDIT TO ADD:
Delta-V is a weird measure in that a) it's the cost per kilogram and therefore stays the same regardless of how much mass you're moving; and b) that cost changes radically if your fuel is a non-trivial portion of your total mass, like it is with present-day human rocketry.

Nonetheless, the numbers give you an idea of relative expense of travel. They go up significantly as you move up and down gravity wells. To travel from near Mars to near Venus would only cost 2.7 km/s, which is only slightly more than to go from geostationary to low orbit around Earth. It's always cheaper to stay in the black.

I like what you have to say so far, other then the last bit about humans. We don't need humans in the orbital factories. With the continues advancements in robotic ai, and drones, all maintenance and operations of orbital factories can be done from earth in the foreseeable future.

The main thing holding us back from exploiting the resources of our solar system is making leaving earth a cost effective process ;p
 
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Surimi

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The thing is you are so right at the moment but for there to be space combat you'd need FTL travel or near FTL travel (I know it is probably impossible, but hey you never know) and the powers to get to that would require science that makes the technology to create craft that can escape earth's gravity and creating an artificial environment for humans inside the vessels look like a year 2 science project...

This is probably a good time to clarify, again, that I was always talking about realism. I started out this discussion to comment on the degree to which our idea of what realistic space combat would be like is actually very influenced by our understanding of naval warfare, or combat between atmospheric aircraft, when in fact space is a very different environment to the environment in which either of those things take place. Somehow, this has evolved into a discussion of the hypothetical merits of manned versus unmanned military spaceflight, but I was never intending to shoot down the idea of imaginative and cool science fiction. FTL would certainly throw a curve ball into the whole notion of space warfare I've been laying out, amazingly advanced technology which works on principles inconceivable to our modern understanding of the world would definitely shake things up. Realistically, though, we can't be certain that any of these things will ever be possible.

But we have a solar system, we can travel around it, and at some point very soon it will become possible to fight over it, and when that happens I find it very difficult to believe that humans will be doing the fighting.

As for the Humans in combat, you always sort of need humans involved.

I just don't see it.

Again. The reason we still need pilot input on earth is because the situations we encounter tend to be complicated. There's a lot going on at once which might confuse a machine. Space is actually quite a simple place, save for the fact that the distances and speeds involved are immense. In atmosphere, if an enemy plane is behind you then there's genuine tactical component in getting out of that situation because the plane has to keep moving forwards and will stall if there isn't enough air flowing over its wings. In space, just turn on the reaction wheels or manoeuvring thrusters and rotate 180 degrees without changing velocity, assuming you've even built a spaceship with a front and a back end at all. The difficulty of space warfare is not tactics or decision making, it's just the fact that everything involves very big numbers.

Again, all we're talking about is spending billions and billions extra (both in development and actually putting the stuff into orbit) to put a person into space so they can press a button on a console. There is nothing more they can do. There are no clever tactics they can execute, no conventional military thinking they can apply, no fancy manoeuvre which is going to change the outcome. Any object encountered in space is potentially hostile, because there is barely anything else there. Firing on random objects isn't a problem because there are barely any random objects, and the random objects which do exist are not going to be substantially easier for a human to identify than a machine because the distances involved make visibility challenging. At best, at absolute best, our brave space pilot is playing an incredibly difficult but rather tedious object recognition game where they try to guess whether a tiny blip on radar or lidar is an enemy ship or a rock. A modern computer could do that.. it possibly couldn't do it very well, but who cares, there are no consequences for shooting rocks.
 
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The_Red_Star

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Engineers and scientists say all sorts of stupid things. Inside their lab they are fine. When exposed to real life... I've lived dealing with those people. I have zero faith in an engineer or scientists' opinion on anything military. They know their specific gadget... and that is about it. How it fits into a warfighting function is much too large of a scope for them. Once again. Scientists and engineers don't come up with doctrine, and they NEVER execute anything in the field. You pit their toys up against a living and breathing opponent with similar toys designed to aid him rather than replace him, and you'll get back scrap.
Most generals don't really grasp the implication of the physics involved in what space combat most likely would look like so they wouldn't comprehend things like the maneuvers for space combat literally turning any human into instantaneous pulp or combat taking place with such high reaction times that a human would have been killed a hundred times over before he could actually process an action had taken place. Also; most don't get that in space, a great danger is trying to radiating heat. The actions involved in space combat would generate a tremendous amount of heat and it needs somewhere to go. This means a human crew would very, very rapidly get cooked alive if the ship is doing a lot of high energy actions or indeed; has a power source capable of using it. Oh and of course; cosmic radiation would also likely be the death of any crew in long deployments.

Space is the most hostile environment short of trying to fight in actual lava known to man. Dealing with the calculations, g-forces, radiation, the frailty of any space craft that needs to sustain a squishy meatbag, and the like means that any human advantages of "intuition" are outweighed by the cards being stacked against them in an environment not a single person can survive exposure to. Purely automated spaceships would act faster, be quite possibly much smaller or better armed or faster due to not needing to waste space on life support, be much more likely to avoid being mission killed by the smallest of hits, and just generally be a million times more suited for this kind of battle than humans would.

You can't extrapolate how this would work from combat within an atmosphere anymore than people could try and draw from naval combat to guess at how air combat works. It's a whole new ball game and it's not one that people would be very useful at. Check all your expectations from science fiction at the door; because the reality is not a bold new world of men of iron and ships of aluminum, it's going to be a lot of number crunching and prediction fire; a lot of very dull high level math, completely deprived of any stealth due to the impossibility of hiding your heat signature in space, and basically just be a big numbers game of zippy drones and missiles.
 
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But seriously, specialists in their field tend to be very good. In that field. The problem is that so many believe that they should be qualified to figure out how what they've designed should be used. Should the designer of the assault rifle be relied upon to create doctrine for an infantry squad? Should an engineer who works on artillery tell the Army how to use that artillery? Should the designer of atomic weaponry come up with the doctrine and planning for its employment? The answer to all of these questions is a resounding no!

The answer to all these questions is a resounding yes.

At the moment there are no generals who understand space tactics. Zero. None. There are no military minds who are used to it. The only people who understand how things move in space are those who've studied it - that is, engineers and scientists. Those are the only people who have even a chance of getting the doctrines right.

We've been here before as a species. Every time a new military technology comes out it always gets conceptualised in terms of the existing ones, which normally means being disastrously misused. Machine guns and mortars, for example, were initially seen as artillery weapons rather than as infantry ones, and tanks and aircraft were thought of as one would think of horses. (That's when they weren't simply ignored outright because they were a thread to the social status of the riding classes.) We all know how this turned out.

If you want a direct naval analogue, the battleship lobby within the Royal Navy and the Japanese Combined Fleet during the interwar period is another good example. They had nothing but contempt for naval aviation, which in retrospect is funny but which should be taken as a lesson for how military establishments approach technological paradigm shifts.

When technology changes, everything we used to know becomes wrong, and the only people who have a chance of understanding the new world are those who have a very deep technical involvement with it.
 
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lwarmonger

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Most generals don't really grasp the implication of the physics involved in what space combat most likely would look like so they wouldn't comprehend things like the maneuvers for space combat literally turning any human into instantaneous pulp or combat taking place with such high reaction times that a human would have been killed a hundred times over before he could actually process an action had taken place. Also; most don't get that in space, a great danger is trying to radiating heat. The actions involved in space combat would generate a tremendous amount of heat and it needs somewhere to go. This means a human crew would very, very rapidly get cooked alive if the ship is doing a lot of high energy actions or indeed; has a power source capable of using it. Oh and of course; cosmic radiation would also likely be the death of any crew in long deployments.

Space is the most hostile environment short of trying to fight in actual lava known to man. Dealing with the calculations, g-forces, radiation, the frailty of any space craft that needs to sustain a squishy meatbag, and the like means that any human advantages of "intuition" are outweighed by the cards being stacked against them in an environment not a single person can survive exposure to. Purely automated spaceships would act faster, be quite possibly much smaller or better armed or faster due to not needing to waste space on life support, be much more likely to avoid being mission killed by the smallest of hits, and just generally be a million times more suited for this kind of battle than humans would.

You can't extrapolate how this would work from combat within an atmosphere anymore than people could try and draw from naval combat to guess at how air combat works. It's a whole new ball game and it's not one that people would be very useful at. Check all your expectations from science fiction at the door; because the reality is not a bold new world of men of iron and ships of aluminum, it's going to be a lot of number crunching and prediction fire; a lot of very dull high level math, completely deprived of any stealth due to the impossibility of hiding your heat signature in space, and basically just be a big numbers game of zippy drones and missiles.

I don't really grasp the physics involved in the ballistic trajectory of a 5.56 MM round, or an artillery shell from a 155 Howitzer. But I know how to lead an infantry company into combat and I know how to call for fire. I know what I need to know about their capabilities and limitations.

The person who designed the rifle that my men and I are using or the artillery that is servicing targets for us are not qualified to do those things. Saying that warfare in space is just about mathematics because it wouldn't exist up there without science is just like saying aerial combat now is just about math because... science! You will never have all the information that you need to make decisions in war, and in circumstances like that you require human judgement, because computers are really terrible at things like judgement. Assuming that you will have good information just because space is big and empty is one hell of an unjustified assumption. An assumption along the lines of "the bomber will always get through" because the sky is big and you can't possibly find it to shoot it down.

TheBeautifulVoid said:
The answer to all these questions is a resounding yes.

At the moment there are no generals who understand space tactics. Zero. None. There are no military minds who are used to it. The only people who understand how things move in space are those who've studied it - that is, engineers and scientists. Those are the only people who have even a chance of getting the doctrines right.

We've been here before as a species. Every time a new military technology comes out it always gets conceptualised in terms of the existing ones, which normally means being disastrously misused. Machine guns and mortars, for example, were initially seen as artillery weapons rather than as infantry ones, and tanks and aircraft were thought of as one would think of horses. (That's when they weren't simply ignored outright because they were a thread to the social status of the riding classes.) We all know how this turned out.

If you want a direct naval analogue, the battleship lobby within the Royal Navy and the Japanese Combined Fleet during the interwar period is another good example. They had nothing but contempt for naval aviation, which in retrospect is funny but which should be taken as a lesson for how military establishments approach technological paradigm shifts.

When technology changes, everything we used to know becomes wrong, and the only people who have a chance of understanding the new world are those who have a very deep technical involvement with it.

The doctrine for naval aviation didn't come from the aircraft designers... it came from the naval aviation component of the navy. Machine guns were used effectively, the issue was understanding the combined effect that artillery and machine guns together would have on the modern battlefield, combined with the challenge of turning masses of new conscripts into soldiers. Those issues were resolved with time in various ways... by soldiers. Armor was not ignored, in fact many of its issues resulted from it being fielded before the kinks had been worked out, however it was integrated into a combined arms team by, you guessed it, soldiers.

What do all these things really have in common? They don't operate by themselves. Doctrine isn't about using one weapon effectively. It is about using many complimentary weapons and systems effectively. Your scientists and engineers grasp their one weapon system that they are an expert on. It is the soldiers job to put all those weapons together into an effective whole. One of the funniest moments of my career was when some engineer tried to tell me how to change my scheme of maneuver to accommodate his system. If we had all wanted to die, I would have done what he said. Better for him to explain the capabilities and limitations of his system to me, and then let me figure out how to use it. Because I am the one who understands the systems that I operate under. He understands his gizmo really well, but that isn't enough for him to understand how to integrate it into systems that he isn't familiar with, and no warfighting system in recorded history has been entirely dependent upon one weapon by itself.
 
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Why would humans or robots be fighting in space? What would make that more probable than Earth? Let's face it if separate nations go into space because as a race we are unable to unite then there will always be a risk of earthbound fighting. So there might be nothing in space that is weaponised because it's a waste of time and resources and space is to big to be worried about it. Especially when someone can nuke your earth based communication centre far more easily. I personally think we are completely alone in this galaxy so in some ways we are the threat, but as long as we are all on earth that is where the fighting will be.
 

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Why would humans or robots be fighting in space? What would make that more probable than Earth? Let's face it if separate nations go into space because as a race we are unable to unite then there will always be a risk of earthbound fighting. So there might be nothing in space that is weaponised because it's a waste of time and resources and space is to big to be worried about it. Especially when someone can nuke your earth based communication centre far more easily. I personally think we are completely alone in this galaxy so in some ways we are the threat, but as long as we are all on earth that is where the fighting will be.

How much do you think modern militaries rely on GPS?

Where do you think GPS comes from?

There are already good reasons to fight in space.
 

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The doctrine for naval aviation didn't come from the aircraft designers... it came from the naval aviation component of the navy. Machine guns were used effectively, the issue was understanding the combined effect that artillery and machine guns together would have on the modern battlefield, combined with the challenge of turning masses of new conscripts into soldiers. Those issues were resolved with time in various ways... by soldiers. Armor was not ignored, in fact many of its issues resulted from it being fielded before the kinks had been worked out, however it was integrated into a combined arms team by, you guessed it, soldiers.

Yeah, during WW2 soldiers run with machine guns and small mortars with no problem. But those sort of tactics started to appear at the end of WW1. There is short time of peace between those wars so we must remember that small infantry mortar, Stokes mortar if I remember correctly, appeared during late WW1 and they were smaller cousins of much bigger examples which fully deserved to be in artillery. And the only thing it could do is to shell another trench. Similar thing with machine guns. The most popular one was Maxim which weights about 30 kg and was operated by small group of people. No wonder they were seen more as defensive weapons. But since WW2 almost every machine gun in soldiers hands, be that MG-42, MG-3, PK or whatever tried to keep weight around 10 kg and crew of two or one. And thus, tactics changed. Tanks, the same, WW1 - infantry support weapon and front line breaching devices, WW2 - blitzkrieg. Who? Guderian.


Same with planes. It is true that there were people in military who did not see military value in early planes (like Ferdinand Foch but let's face it they were not exactly impressive) but, ultimately, soldiers proved their value. It's life, old people like to be conservative not only in military. Not in every country new weapon faced such opposition but for example general Billy Mitchell risked his career for the future of USAF. And he predicted almost to the point task which will be required from such force and proved plane can sink ships reliably.

Planes are generally good example. Pilots are not scientists (of many different specializations which contribute to a modern plane), bah, not even mechanics, but they know how to fly and what capabilities of their machines are. And they came up with tactics. If there ever gonna be a spaceship, first its hypothetical capabilities will be judged and tested in wargames and all what will be required from scientists is to make it the best possible variant while maintaining operator's safety. Then it will be thoroughly tested, capabilities will be measured and pilots together with their commanders will try to create tactics.

Also astronauts and cosmonauts, especially individuals responsible for piloting... plenty of them have in resume organisations like USAF and Soviet or Russian Air Force. So there are military minds used to space.
 

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I don't really grasp the physics involved in the ballistic trajectory of a 5.56 MM round, or an artillery shell from a 155 Howitzer. But I know how to lead an infantry company into combat and I know how to call for fire. I know what I need to know about their capabilities and limitations.

The person who designed the rifle that my men and I are using or the artillery that is servicing targets for us are not qualified to do those things. Saying that warfare in space is just about mathematics because it wouldn't exist up there without science is just like saying aerial combat now is just about math because... science! You will never have all the information that you need to make decisions in war, and in circumstances like that you require human judgement, because computers are really terrible at things like judgement. Assuming that you will have good information just because space is big and empty is one hell of an unjustified assumption. An assumption along the lines of "the bomber will always get through" because the sky is big and you can't possibly find it to shoot it down.
I'm saying that it is literally impossible for humans to meaningfully survive combat there. "Intuition" and "bravery" don't count for shit when all the human pilots will all die during or after their first battle due to the G-forces involved and won't be able to hit a damn thing because they simply don't have the reflexes to do anything beyond push a "yes" button after reading out the information from a bunch of sensors and the calculations already made by the computers; essentially doing nothing but delaying the process in a battlefield where being off by even a microsecond means you've completely missed your target.
 
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The doctrine for naval aviation didn't come from the aircraft designers... it came from the naval aviation component of the navy. Machine guns were used effectively, the issue was understanding the combined effect that artillery and machine guns together would have on the modern battlefield, combined with the challenge of turning masses of new conscripts into soldiers. Those issues were resolved with time in various ways... by soldiers. Armor was not ignored, in fact many of its issues resulted from it being fielded before the kinks had been worked out, however it was integrated into a combined arms team by, you guessed it, soldiers.

Planes
Anthony Fokker, for all his poor business practises and personal unpleasantness, recognised prior to 1918 that aircraft could make attacks against ships and so battleships would need to be escorted.

HMS Prince of Wales was sunk by aircraft in 1941, shocking the naval establishment who hadn't realised that a surface ship sailing under hostile skies without an escort is in danger.

That's a 23 year gap between the designers (Fokker wasn't even an engineer) recognising the future doctrines and the admirals catching up with them.

Machine Guns
One of the forerunners of the machine gun was the Belgian Mitralleuse, which was updated and adopted in France under the weapons developer de Reffye, and was able to achieve the then-unheard-of rate of fire of 100 rounds per minute. During the Franco-Prussian war this weapon was enormously misused by the military establishment which viewed it as an artillery piece rather than as infantry support. De Reffye had this to say on the matter:

"The use of the Mitrailleuse no longer has anything in common with that of normal cannon, the employment and task of this piece deeply modify artillery tactics… Very few officers understand the use of this weapon which, however, is only dangerous by the manner one uses it… The partisans of the mitrailleuse are found among the young who crewed them during the war; but there are far fewer among superior officers."

In this case, too, we see a weapons developer recognise the potential of a weapon and talk about the correct doctrinal use, and be ignored by generals who are still used to conventional thinking.

Tanks
In 1912, Lancelot de Mole of Australia wrote to the British government with detailed schematics for a self-propelled armoured vehicle which would allow mobile warfare to be conducted with complete immunity to small arms fire, boggy ground and barbed wire. It was ignored. In 199 the following was written about him by a War Office bureaucrat:

"We consider that he is entitled to the greatest credit for having made and
reduced to practical shape as far back as the year 1912 a very brilliant invention which anticipated and in some respects surpassed that actually put into use in the year 1916. It was this claimant's misfortune and not his fault that his invention was in advance of his time, and failed to be appreciated and was put aside because the occasion for its use had not then arisen."


Meanwhile, the attitude of the military leaders can be summed up with this wonderful quote from Winston Churchill which was published in 1930:

"It is a shame that [modern] war should have flung all this [spectacle] aside in its greedy, base and opportunist march, and turn instead to chemists in spectacles, and chaffeurs pulling the levers of aeroplanes and machines. But in Aldershot in 1895 none of these horrors had broken upon mankind. The Dragoon, the Lancer, and above all, we believed, the Hussar still claimed their time-honoured place on the battlefield. War, which used to be cruel and magnificent, has now become cruel and squalid. In fact, it has been completely spoilt. It is all the fault of Democracy and Science... instead of a small number of well-trained professionals championing their country's cause with ancient weapons and the beautiful intricacy of archaic maneuver... we now have entire populations... pitted against one another in brutish mutual extermination, and only a set of bleary-eyed clerks left to add up the butcher's bill. From the moment Democracy was admitted to, or rather forced itself upon, the battlefield, war ceased to be a gentleman's game."

To this statement I have nothing else to add. (The second half of it isn't really germane to this discussion but it's so revealing a quote that I didn't want to cut it.)

Nuclear Weapons
The idea that nuclear weapons might be more useful as a threat than in actual deployment was something that, according to Oppenheimer's diaries, was well-understood by him and by several others working on the Manhattan Project in the early 1940s.

In 1950, General Macarthur urged the use of nuclear weapons in the Korean war. As a soldier he was not able to conceive of the concept of mutually assured destruction and of the idea of not using a weapon. Fortunately President Truman, who had not been in the military in World War 2 at all, overruled him.

Once again we see that the technical people (this time scientists) had foreseen how weapons would shape doctrine, while the military minds had not.

Conclusion
Engineers, weapon designers, developers, scientists - these are not soldiers. Yet for the tank, the machine gun, the airplane and the nuclear bomb they understood the ways that their weapons would be used. Military leaders, meanwhile, clung to the established concepts and only changed their doctrines grudgingly and usually only after catastrophes.

If we make war in space - which we will, I hope, not ever do - then hopefully we can be sensible enough to listen to the technical people first and let them develop the doctrines rather than making the same mistake as before.
 
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Then nothing I or anyone else says will change your mind and this discussion is pointless.

While at this point I do somewhat doubt I'm simply going to abandon everything I have learned and known about spaceflight, I would certainly concede the point that there is room for a human element in space warfare if someone could provide me with a compelling, cost-effective reason. What I'm getting so far is:

* Computers have poor judgement - which is currently true, but noone has explained why judgement is a huge advantage in space, since there isn't really any room for tactical choice in a very, very simple environment. There is a right and wrong way of doing things, and the difference between them comes down to very precise mathematics. Again, a machine flew Yuri Gagarin into orbit with no capacity for autonomous judgement. A machine took humans to lunar orbit (and then most of the way to the moon's surface and back) with no capacity for autonomous judgement. These simple guidance systems and computers had less processing power than a modern calculator, and they still managed better than a human could have done.

* Computers cannot recognize objects - which is increasingly not true and very much depends on the object. Modern computers are really good at some forms of object recognition. We might laugh at the fact that a computer would have trouble telling the difference between a dog and a hat, for example, but telling the difference between a small asteroid and a spaceship at hundreds of thousands of miles based purely on a blurry radar or lidar image. It has not really been adequately explained why humans would find that easier than computers.

* AIs will rise up and kill us all - Which is the silliest one. There is an AI which moves the enemy units in games like EU4 and Stellaris. It is not literally plotting my real-life demise and neither is it capable of doing so, it's just following its instructions and doing what its been told to do.

* Humans will always be necessary in war - This is not a reason. It would be an interesting conclusion to an argument, but it isn't an argument in and of itself.

We could argue that humans will always need to be involved on the strategic level, which is difficult to speculate about because we don't know the objectives of a hypothetical space war. But regardless, strategic decisions would need to be made in a single location (i.e. Earth) by someone with access to all the information. Does it matter if those orders are being broadcast to humans and then immediately fed into the machines which will execute them, or whether they are fed to the machines directly?
 
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AIs will rise up and kill us all - Which is the silliest one. There is an AI which moves the enemy units in games like EU4 and Stellaris. It is not literally plotting my real-life demise and neither is it capable of doing so, it's just following its instructions and doing what its been told to do.

Ask Wiz, the code needed to get the AI in EU4 & Stellaris takes time and only works because of the parameters set up in the game. Add the variables of a space war and it would go beyond our current levels of tech.

Humans will always be necessary in war - This is not a reason. It would be an interesting conclusion to an argument, but it isn't an argument in and of itself.

You dismiss this but it is vital to the argument, to create the AI needed in what you said above you need humans.

Computers cannot recognize objects - which is increasingly not true and very much depends on the object. Modern computers are really good at some forms of object recognition. We might laugh at the fact that a computer would have trouble telling the difference between a dog and a hat, for example, but telling the difference between a small asteroid and a spaceship at hundreds of thousands of miles based purely on a blurry radar or lidar image. It has not really been adequately explained why humans would find that easier than computers.

Computers are good at targeting. I'm not denying that.

Computers have poor judgement - which is currently true, but noone has explained why judgement is a huge advantage in space, since there isn't really any room for tactical choice in a very, very simple environment. There is a right and wrong way of doing things, and the difference between them comes down to very precise mathematics. Again, a machine flew Yuri Gagarin into orbit with no capacity for autonomous judgement. A machine took humans to lunar orbit (and then most of the way to the moon's surface and back) with no capacity for autonomous judgement. These simple guidance systems and computers had less processing power than a modern calculator, and they still managed better than a human could have done.

Again with my Eurofighter argument and indeed a computer could probably fly better than a pilot. Yet, in my line of work and in many of my friends (one is a pilot) you don't leave it all down to a computer. A computer is a tool, you still need to tell it what to do and it could be that everything can be automated down to imputing the "Riker maneuver or whatever" but you still need to tell it what to do.

While at this point I do somewhat doubt I'm simply going to abandon everything I have learned and known about spaceflight, I would certainly concede the point that there is room for a human element in space warfare if someone could provide me with a compelling, cost-effective reason. What I'm getting so far is:

Lets say we were talking with Nelson about the weather gage in naval combat. We're arguing about the technology of the day and you're sitting there arguing about needing the weather gage and how you always need it. You're arguing in modern technology terms... No one knows what future technology will bring

We could argue that humans will always need to be involved on the strategic level, which is difficult to speculate about because we don't know the objectives of a hypothetical space war. But regardless, strategic decisions would need to be made in a single location (i.e. Earth) by someone with access to all the information. Does it matter if those orders are being broadcast to humans and then immediately fed into the machines which will execute them, or whether they are fed to the machines directly?

You then contradicted yourself... How long does it take for a message to be broadcast to Mars? Just imagine the advantage of having a ship able to broadcast a message THEN and THERE at a strategic level and even a tactical level. You'd wipe out a fleet of robots before they could even defend themselves... "okay just add defensive computers to the computer fleet" What happens if a shot was an accident two fleets have just wiped each other out because of a mistake.

I think you're thinking people are talking about a star wars or even star trek like design... Ships filled to the brim with people doing things... It may be possible that it's only a small living quarters and command centre on each capital ship with 5-10 people controlling sections of a fleet.

You disregard technology (like being able to create artificial gravity and engines powerful enough to escape earth's pull with ease) and rely on tech (like superfast communications over great distances and the ability for machines to repair themselves easily in space) when it suits your theory.

In the end of the day... You have a Theory of how the future of space combat would be, I have a different theory and people on here have a different theory. You're not right... You're wrong... I'm not right either, I'm wrong... No one on here knows how the future combat in space will be. Just like if you had asked a general or Admiral on the morning of the 14th of December 1903 what the future of land and sea warfare would be... they'd have both been horribly, eye wateringly, wrong... And they were experts in their fields... If you're an expert in the field of space travel... Can I have a tour of Houston Space centre? Please?

Finally, why are their humans in space at the moment if it is such a waste of time? Why do they go on space walks to fix things?

Edit: I really need to get back to work now
 
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Planes
Anthony Fokker, for all his poor business practises and personal unpleasantness, recognised prior to 1918 that aircraft could make attacks against ships and so battleships would need to be escorted.

HMS Prince of Wales was sunk by aircraft in 1941, shocking the naval establishment who hadn't realised that a surface ship sailing under hostile skies without an escort is in danger.

That's a 23 year gap between the designers (Fokker wasn't even an engineer) recognising the future doctrines and the admirals catching up with them.

Which is why the British, Americans and Japanese all started the war with substantial naval aviation communities? And why all three used naval aviation extensively from the outset of the war? I'm sorry, but this whole "admirals didn't support naval aviation" thing doesn't pass muster. Yes Battleships had their advocates within every navy, but then so did naval aviation. The naval aviation community turned out to be correct. That is what happens in war.

Machine Guns
One of the forerunners of the machine gun was the Belgian Mitralleuse, which was updated and adopted in France under the weapons developer de Reffye, and was able to achieve the then-unheard-of rate of fire of 100 rounds per minute. During the Franco-Prussian war this weapon was enormously misused by the military establishment which viewed it as an artillery piece rather than as infantry support. De Reffye had this to say on the matter:

"The use of the Mitrailleuse no longer has anything in common with that of normal cannon, the employment and task of this piece deeply modify artillery tactics… Very few officers understand the use of this weapon which, however, is only dangerous by the manner one uses it… The partisans of the mitrailleuse are found among the young who crewed them during the war; but there are far fewer among superior officers."

In this case, too, we see a weapons developer recognise the potential of a weapon and talk about the correct doctrinal use, and be ignored by generals who are still used to conventional thinking.

The French did a lot of things wrong in that war, of which misusing the Mitrailleuse was one of the more minor errors. That was why they lost so decisively. In WWI, where machine guns were widespread on both sides, their tactical employment was understood fairly well by the military establishment even though they hadn't seen use in a major conflict. The overall effect on the operational environment far less so, and figuring out how to break a trench line supported by machine guns and artillery was something that absorbed military leaders for most of the war.

Tanks
In 1912, Lancelot de Mole of Australia wrote to the British government with detailed schematics for a self-propelled armoured vehicle which would allow mobile warfare to be conducted with complete immunity to small arms fire, boggy ground and barbed wire. It was ignored. In 199 the following was written about him by a War Office bureaucrat:

"We consider that he is entitled to the greatest credit for having made and
reduced to practical shape as far back as the year 1912 a very brilliant invention which anticipated and in some respects surpassed that actually put into use in the year 1916. It was this claimant's misfortune and not his fault that his invention was in advance of his time, and failed to be appreciated and was put aside because the occasion for its use had not then arisen."


Meanwhile, the attitude of the military leaders can be summed up with this wonderful quote from Winston Churchill which was published in 1930:

"It is a shame that [modern] war should have flung all this [spectacle] aside in its greedy, base and opportunist march, and turn instead to chemists in spectacles, and chaffeurs pulling the levers of aeroplanes and machines. But in Aldershot in 1895 none of these horrors had broken upon mankind. The Dragoon, the Lancer, and above all, we believed, the Hussar still claimed their time-honoured place on the battlefield. War, which used to be cruel and magnificent, has now become cruel and squalid. In fact, it has been completely spoilt. It is all the fault of Democracy and Science... instead of a small number of well-trained professionals championing their country's cause with ancient weapons and the beautiful intricacy of archaic maneuver... we now have entire populations... pitted against one another in brutish mutual extermination, and only a set of bleary-eyed clerks left to add up the butcher's bill. From the moment Democracy was admitted to, or rather forced itself upon, the battlefield, war ceased to be a gentleman's game."

To this statement I have nothing else to add. (The second half of it isn't really germane to this discussion but it's so revealing a quote that I didn't want to cut it.)

So I would disagree with this statement. First, the tactical problem that necessitated the development of tanks did not exist in 1912. Once it did, they were rapidly rushed to production. Initially the issue with their use was mechanical reliability, and failure to support them with infantry and artillery. That being said, these issues with tactical employment were swiftly resolved, and they rapidly became part of a combined arms team. The issue with mechanical reliability was resolved by technicians, the issue with tactical employment was solved by soldiers.

In WWII, tanks reflected the design methodology of their respective doctrines. The Germans and Soviets initial designed extremely light tanks for their slashing Blitzkrieg or Deep Battle doctrines, while the French went with heavier tanks with extremely short ranges to designed to break trench lines. Tanks were used from the outset to support pre-existing doctrines however. In the French case, they were fighting the last war, and lost. The Germans employed them with very limited infantry support, and by the end of the war were operating as much more of a combined arms team. The Soviets focused primarily on operational victories, accepting losses and inflexibility at the tactical level much as they have always done. The US tried to use tanks as an infantry support weapon, while trying to match tank destroyers against tanks (this did not work for the obvious reasons). In all of these cases, tank design followed the role that they were to play in doctrine, not the other way around. Designers then responded to the needs of units in the field as doctrine was tweaked or changed to be more effective. Which is a good thing.

Nuclear Weapons
The idea that nuclear weapons might be more useful as a threat than in actual deployment was something that, according to Oppenheimer's diaries, was well-understood by him and by several others working on the Manhattan Project in the early 1940s.

In 1950, General Macarthur urged the use of nuclear weapons in the Korean war. As a soldier he was not able to conceive of the concept of mutually assured destruction and of the idea of not using a weapon. Fortunately President Truman, who had not been in the military in World War 2 at all, overruled him.

Once again we see that the technical people (this time scientists) had foreseen how weapons would shape doctrine, while the military minds had not.

Mutually assured destruction was not something that existed until much later. Truman instead understood the political ramifications of employing nuclear weapons in a limited war, and also understood just how few weapons and delivery systems existed in 1950 (something that was not, understandably, widespread knowledge at the time even within the US military). Nuclear warfighting doctrine was something that came almost entirely from the military end, and was based on a conflict in Europe. Either the Soviets were using nukes to break through, or we were using nukes to stop them. How those nukes were employed was primarily dictated by delivery systems, and was an almost entirely military process.

Conclusion
Engineers, weapon designers, developers, scientists - these are not soldiers. Yet for the tank, the machine gun, the airplane and the nuclear bomb they understood the ways that their weapons would be used. Military leaders, meanwhile, clung to the established concepts and only changed their doctrines grudgingly and usually only after catastrophes.

If we make war in space - which we will, I hope, not ever do - then hopefully we can be sensible enough to listen to the technical people first and let them develop the doctrines rather than making the same mistake as before.

The military understands the value in incremental change. If you seriously believe the technical people can come up with doctrine that does better, then you are welcome to believe that. I doubt many people who know both the technicians involved and the combat arms side of the military would agree with you. I would rather listen to the people who are actually going to be fighting that war than the people who design their toys. Different mindsets. One is suited for building things. The other is suited to synchronizing different systems and effects to achieve a desired result.
 
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lwarmonger

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* AIs will rise up and kill us all - Which is the silliest one. There is an AI which moves the enemy units in games like EU4 and Stellaris. It is not literally plotting my real-life demise and neither is it capable of doing so, it's just following its instructions and doing what its been told to do.

I'd say this is the strongest reason why humans need to be involved. If the AI is smart enough to be as effective as a human, then it is a threat. If it is just following instructions, then it can be beaten rather easily by a human who figures out how to exploit weaknesses in those instructions. How hard is it to beat any video game AI?