Yeah, if the start date is 1399, like EU3, then all of Europe would be stagnant/pre-renaissance, but if you start at 1440, then I'd set Genoa and maybe Venice to developing. Then have events trigger the Enlightenment in France or the Netherlands ~1700, and finally industrialization in England in ~1820.
Strangely enough if you look at people's productivity in those countries you get a different story.
In Netherlands per capita income went from $761 (average for western Europe) in 1500 to $1381 in 1600 (top of Western Europe) to $2130 in 1700 (still top) down to $1838 in 1820. So if I was modeling that in more detail than EU3 does I'd say the Netherlands had best in the world technology growth from 1500 to 1700, but then declined.
Italy's income on the other hand was at $1100 in 1500 and hardly increased at all until after 1820. Of course that level is almost twice of what China was at, and well ahead of most of Europe. So I'd have said that Italy should be in the top group for technology growth from 1400 until 1500 (and a top group which is well ahead of latin EU3) but then dropped back into stagnation. Of course this would mean you had to do away with ahead of time penalties too, or else people would catch Italy far to easily (Norway & Sweden both only got their incomes up to the same as Italy in the 1800s).
There are some people who put Industralisation in England 60 years early, but my Maddison (my current source) agrees with you on 1820 (and UK income doubles from 1820 to 1870).