I'd say it's roughly correct.
According to the well-known Swedish historian Peter Englund, in the early 17th century Denmark-Norway had about 1.2 million inhabitants, and Sweden-Finland about 900,000. The Baltic provinces (only Estland 1600) were never treated like proper "Sweden", and shouldn't be included in that count. 260 was colonised very late (500 in 1600 is good, as there were no cities there then.) Bergslagen (257) with all mining should get slightly more.
If I just move around figures, for the same total, I would put it:
254 = 25,000*
(276 = 15,000)
252 = 10,000*
253 = 10,000*
342 = 6,000
257 = 7,000
265 = 5,000
1469 = 5,000
264 = 5,000
273 = 4,000
381 = 4,000
260 = 500°
263 = 1,500
341 = 1,000°
You might want to scale it to fit 900,000 instead of 1,000,000. 252 isn't split by the new map, but could lose some pop to Svealand at that point.