Well, we know already it'll be from PDS, so only the third option here fits the bill.Okay after some research. I gathered that currently Paradox is working on 3 new games (at the minimum).
Firstly (likely) a life-sim Sims-esque game managed by Rod Humble at Paradox Tectonic in the USA(everything I gathered about Rod Humble and what they are hiring there suggests a simulation game of some sort), I guess the game is still far from completion since the studio has been a thing only since 2019, also the game to be announced is to be a GSG so I doubt its this one they're announcing.
Secondly, EUV is definitely in the works as Paradox Tinto in Spain has been announced as the studio to take the Europa Universalis franchise and brand further. EUIV is old and is definitely ready for a sequel. But the studio there has been founded only in 2020(though I guess the development of EUV could've been started earlier by a different Paradox studio/organisation), but the main thing that makes me discount this option is that the announcement of a new EUIV DLC at the next PDXcon leads me to believe EUV is still too early in production or unlikely to be announced this PDXCON.
Thirdly, the third game they are working at PDS main studio in Stockholm is an 'unnanounced non-historical grand strategy game' (according to the hiring info). I am pretty sure they are going to announce this one at PDXCON, due to EUV clashing with a EUIV dlc announcement (possibly hurting DLC sales in the process) making EUV announcement unlikely. The only thing that makes this less likely is that they are hiring concept artists, almost implying they are early-in production. Maybe too early for an announcement.
I guess the third option is most likely, probably a fantasy equivalent of Stellaris, it being handled by the main studio implies its going to be a flagship title.
My heart makes me want to hope there is a fourth option however its probably less likely than EUV or the ahistorical GSG... I am convinced the games I wrote about above are being developed but there is no reason to think PDX isn't making a 4th game. I've read about PDX buying up Victoria 2/3 related trademarks a while back, so perhaps its time for Victoria? I hope.
I'm not 100% convinced that Tinto will be doing EU5 though, their statement was (likely purposefully) quite ambiguous imo, at the time of the announcement, people were really split if that meant they'd be working on EU4 only, EU5 only, or both.
In time the second option proved false, but the other two didn't so far.
I dunno, I guess I'm one of those traditionalists finding odd if PDX hands over one of its (and arguably the) flagship titles to a subsidiary, though I guess Johan himself being there could be the key point here.
Another aspect would be how the team has just been assembled, and taking CK3's development as reference, that'd mean no EU5 until 2026, which would be... concerning, to say the least.
I agree that it's possible EU5 was already in development and will only continue under Tinto, but I imagine this is not a light change to make, it's a big disruption and would certainly cause big delays, it's not something you'd see on smooth development cycles.
Maybe Johan himself was already working on EU5, then it might make sense for it to go with him and a chunk of his team, but then again, he was working on Imperator until recently, so not the most likely scenario either if you ask me.
Regarding the fantasy GSG thought, PDX announced job positions for an "unannounced non-historical GSG", and I figure releasing several of those in a short time would be unlikely, so I'd say chances have decreased there.
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