China banned HoI, they want to hide how weak they were not so long ago.
No matter the path you take, it's a great boon to have Manchuria obedient. If not, be prepared for them to turn o you when you least expect it.
Toughest part about Japan the first few times is in managing the giant navy, great fun for micro management though.
1. Tripartite first
2. Marco Polo, If china gives in, it's going to take longer and generate more world tension with manual war goals, but it's worth the free cores and a weaker China.
3. Shanxi War: They start popping out new units early 1937 and the Soviets may send volunteers. Lots of mountains too, so it's best to take them out fast and soon.
You can often have Shanxi surrender before any volunteers arrive.
4. China war: If they don't become a faction, you will also want Yunnan and Guangxi clique. Xibei San Ma I like to puppet to extend the north buffer zone.
Alternatively you can give it to your puppet. Obedient Manchuria will eventual annex the other puppet so through out slowly work on annex thru autonomy, ideally after the fall of the USSR. (send them all the outdated equipment you don't want and spam a few hundred convoy for them, maybe build in there territory as well. The Manchurian project is time consuming, you can skip it, but if your going to Annex them in the future, might as well go thru it, but never a top priority.
5. The main point of going all in on China as soon as ya can is to have time to build more armies and get jump start on the Soviets. If you wait for the Axis to start the war, you will not gain most of the territory you capture. The beef of the Union is in the west, Siberia isn't worth a scratch. Do not be afraid to fight them alone, in fact I set up the puppet buffer zone to stick to the warrior code and not invite them to the war. Ideally one should have Mongolia and that East 3rd of the Union before the Axis declares war. It's also slow with little infrastructure, supply woes and long winters. Take winter break if you need to, the enemy will sorta do the same.
6: Allies: Demand French Indo china when it becomes available, ally Siam. prior to this war I'm trading with them for the resources needed. Having half of the Soviet Union fixes that and your more independent. It's all situational from now on... If Dutch East indies is still neutral, attack them first. If France fell and is not an ally, take there Pacific Islands next. Always saving war with a Faction and US for last so you can float about freely. Allies, British Malaya is the UK's bread and butter take their remaining Pacific Islands as well, cutting off Australia from the US. To secure a pole to pole empire and leaving nothing behind, I advise taking Australia before India assuming India is even a threat. Generally it's Japan who gets the US into the war, if that's the case then start with the Philippines, Guam, Attu, Wake, Phoenix, Midway, Johnston and Line Islands all as a sneak attack semi coordinated. From then on it all depends on the upcoming sea battles with the US.
Note: there are ways to invade US mainland as your fist enemy really early. I never tried it as it can be fatal if you lose and not much fun if you win. imo...
Early oil comes from Venezuela or even the US.
Edit: With espionage coordinated strike mission, you can also try to mimic Pearl harbor.