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brifbates

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Personally I also have an issue with the lack of intelligence the ai displays in choosing where to colonize. At the very least the "everywhere that feeds my home node before elsewhere" check should be reinstated. Spain should not be settling Canada when Columbia, Rio Grande, Louisiana, Eastern USA, Rio, Peru, and Mexico are all still unclaimed by the stupid ToT mechanic and within their range, ever...

(unless they somehow actually expanded to and moved their trade port to the English Channel, which I've seen the ai manage maybe twice since the BI was changed in 1.30)
 
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PtY

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I don't make this case. I instead make a case for internal consistency of the rationale used for implementations in the game world (and of the game world itself).

Inherently, England has more conquest opportunities than Rwanda. There are many reasons EU 4's mechanics favor England. They are not arbitrary, they are consistent with why nations broadly have an advantage over each other otherwise.

Natives already get lots of special rules/exceptions, and those already cause problems. In fact those exceptions are undeniably a source of the "federation core stealing" bug. The problem with breaking your own rules in a game model isn't just theoretical; it reliably produces adverse outcomes in practice too.
That's a fair argument, and I agree with it in general. However, special rules for native tribes of the Americas are clearly one of the larger rulesets necessary for EU4 to function as a historical strategy game.

They affect almost a hundred tags, which makes them less special than the mechanics of the HRE, Shogunate, and half the game's religions; they model distinct behavior not exhibited by most European states (polity-level migration); and they model important historical events that can't be modeled by any other mechanics (massive epidemics).

In terms of historical stuff, it's not even clear that colonizers utterly failing was particularly less likely than some of the other things we take for granted in the game. It's a game first, and thus mechanics take priority.
That's not really an argument against balance improvements, especially here, where they'd only affect tags with provinces in the Americas.

I don't know what this means, and you don't either. History has a sample size of 1, with a lot of highly improbable outcomes that actually happened.

I don't think you're even capable of forming a model of reality that can pin down a reasonable basis for success rate of natives with historical constraints. I don't any human being can make a model like that and have confidence in its predictions.
I do know what I mean, and you're contradicting yourself. Nothing with "a sample size of 1" can indicate whether something is "improbable" without the observer making some inferences. You imply I can't make coherent historical models and then cite your own mental model of history as a piece of evidence for that claim.

Moreover, in the case of North American natives, our "sample size" is hundreds of real world tribes and thousands of distinct group-level encounters mapped onto dozens of EU4 tags. There was a clear pattern to those encounters: they became gradually less friendly and less equal over time, with the typical effect of native tribes being pushed inland by European settlers and occasionally exterminated from a combination of disease and war.

There were exceptions, sure - the Huron and many tribes in the Ohio River valley were wiped out or absorbed by the Iroquois, not Europeans - but the pattern is undeniable.

In EU 4, it's even worse, because the game's model includes rules that make historical outcomes impossible, generally. Including the basic premise of "who makes decisions for this nation", but also things like economy, supply, and diplomatic interactions. This simply isn't a game where you can align 1:1 of "historically plausible frequency" to "game state" for any one particular outcome or mechanic without breaking the entire thing many times over the instant you try to generalize it.
I'm not arguing for "1:1...historically plausible accuracy" and never said I was.

For example, what % of games should the HRE be dismantled by France, based on history? What frequency of "Napoleonic conquest by AI" "plausible"? I don't think you can answer these using a model with predictive validity either...don't think such a thing exists.
YellowPress gave a pretty good answer here. The pattern you're asking for is what France did when it was both expansionist and powerful relative to the HRE, and the answer was to encroach on the HRE whenever it was both.

The requirements for dismantling the HRE are roughly what the extent of Napoleon's conquest in Germany was, so the answers to your questions are roughly the same. The main difference between the France of Louis XIV and the France of Napoleon was the latter's government.

So, AI France should be likelier than not to carve out a large piece (through conquest or vassalage) of one or several of Spain, the Low Countries, Italy and Germany if it is both as large and as relatively powerful as France historically was in the 18th century, and if it goes revolutionary. If Austria or Spain becomes an equally powerful counterweight (a rough analogue of having the Russian army based in a neighboring country) then AI France will be less relatively powerful and less likely to conquer much.
 
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TheMeInTeam

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That's a fair argument, and I agree with it in general. However, special rules for native tribes of the Americas are clearly one of the larger rulesets necessary for EU4 to function as a historical strategy game.
That is not clear, no. Release version had no such thing, for example. Colonial nations dominated natives long before the concepts of "arbitrary primitives" or special hoops to "reform the government" existed.

Even so, most of the mechanics in question aren't the source of this thread/typical complaints.

That's not really an argument against balance improvements, especially here
In order to claim something is a balance improvement, there's an evidential burden for the basis for said "balance".

I do know what I mean, and you're contradicting yourself. Nothing with "a sample size of 1" can indicate whether something is "improbable" without the observer making some inferences. You imply I can't make coherent historical models and then cite your own mental model of history as a piece of evidence for that claim.

I didn't do that second thing.

I'm not arguing for "1:1...historically plausible accuracy" and never said I was.

The problem is that generally, arguments on this topic frame "historical plausibility" as basis for change, then abandon that exact rationale instantaneously when considering other mechanics...it doesn't generalize. It's an incoherent preference.

YellowPress gave a pretty good answer here. The pattern you're asking for is what France did when it was both expansionist and powerful relative to the HRE, and the answer was to encroach on the HRE whenever it was both.

The requirements for dismantling the HRE are roughly what the extent of Napoleon's conquest in Germany was, so the answers to your questions are roughly the same. The main difference between the France of Louis XIV and the France of Napoleon was the latter's government.
No moving goalposts between mechanics.

Natives get eradicated sometimes. AI France effectively never dismantles HRE and makes a run on Russia. If the argument presented earlier along the lines of "what happened historically should happen plausibly often", one thing happens much more often than the other in EU 4, and always has. The other does not attract nearly the scrutiny or arguments regardless of that fact.

Thus, using a "balance change" to "nerf natives" on the basis of "historically plausible frequency" is an incoherent position in a game that broadly disregards "historically plausible frequency" routinely and where players generally don't take issue with it.

All of a sudden, there are lots of conditionals that don't happen that magically justify that France does not, in fact, dismantle HRE with "historically plausible frequency" for any possible standard of "historically plausible frequency" that can possibly be applied to natives. Where were all these important conditionals earlier wrt native "balance"?
 

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That is not clear, no. Release version had no such thing, for example. Colonial nations dominated natives long before the concepts of "arbitrary primitives" or special hoops to "reform the government" existed.
You seem to imply either that no content should have been added after the release version because it was not in the release version, or that various early versions of EU4 satisfied all of my (and/or others') complaints about historical balance, which they did not.

Even so, most of the mechanics in question aren't the source of this thread/typical complaints.
The thread started with criticism of the federations mechanics; (implicitly) the "Rapid Collapse of Society" triggered modifier; and colonial culture conversion. Those overlap heavily with the fairly detailed list I gave, which is what you've made multiple replies about.

In order to claim something is a balance improvement, there's an evidential burden for the basis for said "balance".
I've made that argument at length, including in the second half of the sentence you deleted from the quote this was made in reply to.

I didn't do that second thing.
I said:
Outside the hands of players, natives and other disadvantaged nations should lose with historically plausible frequency to the AI
You replied:
I don't know what this means, and you don't either. History has a sample size of 1, with a lot of highly improbable outcomes that actually happened.

I don't think you're even capable of forming a model of reality that can pin down a reasonable basis for success rate of natives with historical constraints. I don't any human being can make a model like that and have confidence in its predictions.
In context, you impugned my ability (or anyone's) to coherently model historically plausible probabilities of EU4 events. Yet, in the sentence immediately preceding that, you cited "improbable outcomes" in history as evidence of the futility of making such assessments of historical probability.

The problem is that generally, arguments on this topic frame "historical plausibility" as basis for change, then abandon that exact rationale instantaneously when considering other mechanics...it doesn't generalize. It's an incoherent preference.

No moving goalposts between mechanics.
I didn't. I framed both of my answers as a matter of average outcomes. For natives, it was an average per tag; for France, it was an average over time spent with expansionist designs on and superior power to the HRE.

Natives get eradicated sometimes. AI France effectively never dismantles HRE and makes a run on Russia. If the argument presented earlier along the lines of "what happened historically should happen plausibly often", one thing happens much more often than the other in EU 4, and always has. The other does not attract nearly the scrutiny or arguments regardless of that fact.
I didn't frame my response as a matter of France dismantling the HRE, but of France making major expansionist gains against its neighbors. As you mentioned already, history includes plenty of improbable events. We don't need to assume the HRE being dismantled is the median historical outcome, or that French expansion must be measured solely against its progress towards dismantling the HRE.

France had mixed results in its numerous attempts at European expansion. Napoleon's successes were outliers in France's repeated attempts to gain land in Iberia, Italy, the Low Countries, and Germany, and they were reversed.

Native tribes had a much more consistent experience: they were eradicated or pushed inland in virtually all cases of sustained contact with Europeans, typically starting only a few decades after Europeans first colonized nearby land. Those losses were rarely if ever reversed. To my knowledge, natives never formed giant federations over huge tracts of fully settled land as they do in EU4.

Thus, using a "balance change" to "nerf natives" on the basis of "historically plausible frequency" is an incoherent position in a game that broadly disregards "historically plausible frequency" routinely and where players generally don't take issue with it.
You don't need to improve or change every part of the game equally or all at once for your ideas to be worthy or coherent. (I happen to dislike most of the wilder, less plausible outcomes that EU4 makes somewhat likely, and I've often suggested ways to make EU4 less ahistorical.)

If your main argument from the start had been "few players share your concerns, this won't happen," I'd have understood where you were coming from. I don't know how true that assessment is, but it makes more sense than your apparent positions that historical models must always apply globally and that historical plausibility is synonymous with a close adherence to actual historical events.

All of a sudden, there are lots of conditionals that don't happen that magically justify that France does not, in fact, dismantle HRE with "historically plausible frequency" for any possible standard of "historically plausible frequency" that can possibly be applied to natives. Where were all these important conditionals earlier wrt native "balance"?
Historical plausibility as I use the term - and, I think, as most people use the term - refers to a model of history and not to the precise course history took. As you said, there were plenty of improbable historical events. Obviously we should pay more attention to patterns than to isolated or anomalous outcomes.
 
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Tisifoni12

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Again the Charrua win control of several tiles of British Argentine territory and the British take no action allowing Spain (me) to expand my two tile colony (Colonia and Montevideo) by conquering the Charrua.
 
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TheMeInTeam

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You seem to imply either that no content should have been added after the release version because it was not in the release version, or that various early versions of EU4 satisfied all of my (and/or others') complaints about historical balance, which they did not.
My intention was to imply that "historical balance" (whatever that means in EU 4 context) does not require special mechanics to achieve. Special mechanics might nevertheless be interesting or worth adding, but them being a requirement for "balance" isn't a thing.

The thread started with criticism of the federations mechanics; (implicitly) the "Rapid Collapse of Society" triggered modifier; and colonial culture conversion. Those overlap heavily with the fairly detailed list I gave, which is what you've made multiple replies about.
"Rapid collapse of society" (and its relatively weak impact) is an event (not a special mechanic) that precedes most or all of the special mechanics. The only thing preventing colonial culture conversion is similarly unrelated (bad interaction with AI religious conversion behavior with certain NIs/tolerance values, and not converting blocks culture conversion --> note that this also results in non-conversions in India or by player subjects literally anywhere in the world sometimes).

Federations are bugged and that bug should be fixed, but we don't disagree on that.

In context, you impugned my ability (or anyone's) to coherently model historically plausible probabilities of EU4 events. Yet, in the sentence immediately preceding that, you cited "improbable outcomes" in history as evidence of the futility of making such assessments of historical probability.
Haha, I didn't realize this was what you were getting at. Okay:
  • It is virtually impossible to model probabilities with a sample size of 1, thus the notion of "historically plausible frequency" is both ridiculous on its face *and* self-inconsistently defined by players using it in the context of this thread.
  • It is nevertheless possible to claim "improbable events occurred", because this claim does not require us to assign an estimated probability to any one event. It instead merely requires us to consider that there were a tremendous number of events in the period in question. That, by itself, makes at least some very improbable outcomes extremely likely to occur. Despite that we still don't have good ability to estimate just how unlikely one particular event was.
I didn't. I framed both of my answers as a matter of average outcomes. For natives, it was an average per tag; for France, it was an average over time spent with expansionist designs on and superior power to the HRE.
What makes you think this framing is more useful than other framing? People in these threads generally don't like the concept of "natives succeeding too often". However, these is no apparent standard for that, even now.

If you want to use that multi-tag framing, we can instead use the fact that the HRE tends to always exist at end of game, despite that there are "hundreds of tags that could dismantle it". Now we can use "average per tag" for that interaction too! Is it useful? About as useful as using "average per tag" in NA...

Native tribes had a much more consistent experience: they were eradicated or pushed inland in virtually all cases of sustained contact with Europeans, typically starting only a few decades after Europeans first colonized nearby land. Those losses were rarely if ever reversed. To my knowledge, natives never formed giant federations over huge tracts of fully settled land as they do in EU4.
Again, EU 4 has a tremendous number of things that nations "never did", even when taken as a group, that the game does routinely. Nation orders, coalitions, forced 5 year minimum truces, war score cap, join war limitations, and financial management are all examples of things that either didn't happen in history or were completely impossible in history.

Yet year after year, thread after thread, these mechanics garner a tiny % of the attention that "natives doing better than I think they should do in the context of a game where many nations wildly over or under perform relative to history in every single game" seems to get. I wonder why.

This is a game where you can't possibly execute the Italian wars, no matter what you do. It's a game that forces coalitions in a form that did not exist a single time in history, and directly contradicts the closest historical examples it allegedly models. Even the mere existence EU 4 "BANK" is more ridiculous than any amount of marginal success natives have over historical capability. BANK is straight up wizardry.

This is not an environment where "historically plausible frequency" comes off as a criticism genuinely applied to only one instance. Yet in threads we observe it laser focus on this instance over and over and over and over and over again.

You don't need to improve or change every part of the game equally or all at once for your ideas to be worthy or coherent. (I happen to dislike most of the wilder, less plausible outcomes that EU4 makes somewhat likely, and I've often suggested ways to make EU4 less ahistorical.)

You do, however, need to avoid a stated set of preferences that looks like this:

A > B > C > A.

Because if you do not avoid this supposed set of preferences, they are not coherent.

This thread is not "I want EU 4 to be a completely different game, so rework these 20+ core mechanics". If we were *honestly* discussing historical plausibility as the basis for making changes to the game, that's what this thread would look like. Not the umpteenth thread complaining about natives (still one of the weakest positions on the board) somehow being "too strong" to be "plausible" again. With implied standards for plausible used that can't possibly track to the game anywhere else. Again.

but it makes more sense than your apparent positions that historical models must always apply globally and that historical plausibility is synonymous with a close adherence to actual historical events.
I'm actually making a stronger, harsher claim. I do not claim that "historical plausibility is synonymous with adherence to events".

I am outright claiming that the typical posts that claim natives are "implausibly strong" can be reliably inferred as an incoherent game preference, because no coherent *possible* set of preferences for "historical plausibility" would predict a thread that singles out native performance in particular, period.

Any standard that merits making the natives weaker on that basis *necessarily* implies gutting the game mechanics overall, a total game rework. My experience is that most players do not realize that's the case. That no, you really can't use "the natives are too strong because reasons" when those reasons imply things like "change how development works from the ground up", "eliminate idea groups", "rework systems like OE and AE", and "rework wars from the ground up".

Maybe you really do want a completely different game. It's not realistic to transform EU 4 that way, but it might be a genuine preference where the game experience models historical causal interactions more closely to how they worked in reality. That's totally legit. But color me dubious, when this just happens to be in a native thread in particular for the 20th+ time, and these things aren't so much as mentioned alongside it.

refers to a model of history and not to the precise course history took.
The game rules ARE that model, and they are necessarily nowhere close to the causal interactions dictated by history. Can't be. You advance years in minutes, make decisions that optimize for the nation against incentives that would typically exist for the ruler (!!!), field standing professional armies in 1444, ship 75% of those professional troops across oceans safely and without consequence, and have mechanics that outright block an independent state from negotiating peace regardless of its wishes or the state of the nation, all while expending "mana" as a resource transferable between naval technology, making demands at a peace table, and consolidating loosely held territory.

That *IS* the model, and it's mighty suspicious that natives being "too strong", but still weaker than every other position on the board by a wide margin, is *particularly* out of place in that model.
 
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Indian federations:

  • There was the Iroquois Confederacy which was involved in the 18th Century colonial wars between France and Britain. Existed for 200 years ish; 5 later 6 tribes.
  • Tecumseh's Confederacy formed 1808 to resist the Americans.
As far as I know these are the only two examples. Both were of tribes in the Great Lakes region.
 

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As an aside, WRT federations specifically I've never been convinced that they are a better model of the situation than a basic alliance between nations would have been. The game fits all kinds of historical arrangements into a big general bin called "alliances", and it's never been clear why federations were so different from other arrangements that they needed a special mechanic with special rules that exist simultaneously with alliances.

Having them unite this way doesn't make much sense to me. Even less because it makes it less practical for nations to fight and yank tribal land from each other (which did happen historically, and conflict in EU 4 is more fun than improving relations only).

Similarly, the concept of "primitives" introduced after EU 4 was released has always been both arbitrary (Inca has worse ship building potential than Busoga? Really?) and not needed. The meaningful part of it was reverted with the introduction of war canoes, too. Back in the day, a bunch of early carracks could beat Spain or something, but I don't think that would still be true now...kind of an ironic progression of mechanic interactions there. If naval tech meant more in the first place, "primitives" as a concept likely would never had existed because natives doing the thing devs at the time didn't like wouldn't have existed.
 
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Skoonting

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I don't really have much to add except that I despise colonization in its current states. Natives are just a massive pain. I'm conquering far more often than I'm actually colonizing.
 
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Tisifoni12

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Abandoned game at I forget which year, I think early 17th Century. I was obsessing about Naples, watching for their allies to become embroiled in wars that would distract them from supporting Naples.

Meanwhile Portugal had colonised Australia and Britain California. At the same time though the British were in Canada and Portugal in Florida, no-one was interested in the Eastern seaboard what could be the US.

The Carib had taken three tiles of French colony on the Caribbean coast of South America and now allied to France were not an attractive target for Spanish Colombia.

Generally feel it is time for the basic mechanisms of 'colonisation' to be considered.
 

Volbound

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One neat feature would be if natives take European colonies or Europeans take natives (exception being native nation-states like Aztecs and Incas), they burn/destroy the province rather than occupy it. This would be a little more historic. However, maybe have a development cut off were if lands has x amount of development, the province isn't destroyed. That might solve Aztec/Inca;/Mayan dilemma as well because you definitely don't want to destroy them off from a historical perspective.
 
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One neat feature would be if natives take European colonies or Europeans take natives (exception being native nation-states like Aztecs and Incas), they burn/destroy the province rather than occupy it. This would be a little more historic. However, maybe have a development cut off were if lands has x amount of development, the province isn't destroyed. That might solve Aztec/Inca;/Mayan dilemma as well because you definitely don't want to destroy them off from a historical perspective.
The gameplay from this would feel awful, from both sides. You are in some big war like league war or pressing a PU, and the natives burn the entirety of the 13 colonies before you can finish up and ship an army over. Natives could be cheese wiped out for free, and colonizers could lose more than a century of progress in a flash pre-absolutism.
 
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Volbound

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The gameplay from this would feel awful, from both sides. You are in some big war like league war or pressing a PU, and the natives burn the entirety of the 13 colonies before you can finish up and ship an army over. Natives could be cheese wiped out for free, and colonizers could lose more than a century of progress in a flash pre-absolutism.

I can see your point, it could be cheesed just like natives are cheesed right now with the easy conquest of New World using "Enforce Peace" mechanic.
 

Tisifoni12

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The gameplay from this would feel awful, from both sides. You are in some big war like league war or pressing a PU, and the natives burn the entirety of the 13 colonies before you can finish up and ship an army over. Natives could be cheese wiped out for free, and colonizers could lose more than a century of progress in a flash pre-absolutism.
So you have to choose between keeping a colonial garrison or relying on diplomacy with the natives. The colonial garrison also to deter neighbouring European colonies; t years war in the American / Canadian theatre.
 
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Tisifoni12

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Should there be a distinction between New World 'Civilizations', the states of Central America and the Andes which have cites and the other Native American peoples who may have settled communities and agriculture, or may rely on hunting and gathering, but who don't have settlements larger than a village ?

If so, should that distinction be applied globally; Australia, parts of Africa ?
 
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Should there be a distinction between New World 'Civilizations', the states of Central America and the Andes which have cites and the other Native American peoples who may have settled communities and agriculture, or may rely on hunting and gathering, but who don't have settlements larger than a village ?
Every time you make a province uncolonised or colonised it suffers this distinction. Why are fulo and sulu uncolonised at game start, but a few months later tags, why are lake victorian tags playable but not zulus or south Africans, why is nivkh in and owns northern half of island but buryatia got removed
USA + Canada natives used to take ages to become settled people unless you conquered another/started like iroquois, then with leviathan we had giga natives, then not so op natives, but then something screwed when going to the french update.
If paradox brought back protectorates then giga natives might not be so bad
If so, should that distinction be applied globally; Australia, parts of Africa ?
Australia should have never been added because the armies have more than the population of the time, maori is a maybe tho. Hawaï also probs bad idea
 
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Nostalgium

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Should there be a distinction between New World 'Civilizations', the states of Central America and the Andes which have cites and the other Native American peoples who may have settled communities and agriculture, or may rely on hunting and gathering, but who don't have settlements larger than a village ?

If so, should that distinction be applied globally; Australia, parts of Africa ?
Yes, and yes. I'm firmly of the opinion that EU4 is poorly equipped to handle highly decentralized tribal societies as tags. There isn't enough granularity in the game to properly depict the differences in society between say the Shoshone and something like the Golden Horde successor states, and unless you were to make pretty significant changes to how the game operates, there simply can't be. Still, I also think we're stuck with the system we have. I've talked about this before, but any decision made to take away content from the game (reducing tags, reducing provinces, etc) - regardless of how good it would be for the long-term health of the game - would be highly controversial at best. Especially if that content was perceived as something that has been paid for. So I don't think we'll ever see a meaningful distinction between decentralized tribal groupings and centralized, state-like entities in EU4.
 
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Yes, and yes. I'm firmly of the opinion that EU4 is poorly equipped to handle highly decentralized tribal societies as tags. There isn't enough granularity in the game to properly depict the differences in society between say the Shoshone and something like the Golden Horde successor states, and unless you were to make pretty significant changes to how the game operates, there simply can't be. Still, I also think we're stuck with the system we have. I've talked about this before, but any decision made to take away content from the game (reducing tags, reducing provinces, etc) - regardless of how good it would be for the long-term health of the game - would be highly controversial at best. Especially if that content was perceived as something that has been paid for. So I don't think we'll ever see a meaningful distinction between decentralized tribal groupings and centralized, state-like entities in EU4.
They did make it a bit harder to reform as a native in some leviathan patches, needing feudalism eg, but alas they switched back to the current form so 13 colonies and louisiana are hard to settle
 
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TheMeInTeam

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So you have to choose between keeping a colonial garrison or relying on diplomacy with the natives. The colonial garrison also to deter neighbouring European colonies; t years war in the American / Canadian theatre.
You need a hell of a lot more than a basic garrison to prevent occupations. Especially with how AI does micromanagement runby tactics with map hacks. Except now rather than getting random distant provinces occupied, they're deleted. And every single one of them will take > 10yr to replace until mid-late game under proposal above.

That makes an already raw deal a complete joke. Conquering the natives in their present form is the highest ROI deal you can get with making CNs; subject pays for the cores, you don't pay 100s of ducats for each province, and you can get at least some trade + tariff money. With the federation bug gone I can't see how the present setup isn't already sufficiently colonizer-favored in game terms. It's already internally inconsistent to represent nations like Aztec and especially Inca as more backwards and primitive than the majority of sub-Saharan tags.

I would be okay with getting rid of federation unification too. That didn't ship with CoP, wasn't needed/is arguably unhealthy even to native gameplay now, and obviously w/o it there would have been no core stealing bug.
 

Tisifoni12

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@TheMeInTeam

It depends what you mean by backwards or primitive.

The Inca were a bronze age society, the New World equivalent of perhaps the Hittite Empire ?

The Aztec and other Central American peoples were technologically neolithic societies.

But technology ain't everything.
 
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