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keynes2.0

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Added to that should be that after a war with Soviets, even if vastly successful, Germany will have driven Belgium into the French-British camp. If French and British troops have months to fortify in Belgium before the German attack and they've had time to see what Blitzkreig can do in Poland and Russia, Germany basically has no chance of a rapid campaign in the West.

werent germans having majority of soviet cities under their influence, as well majority of the population as well?

Yeah but given how vast the Soviet population was before the war that left a population nearly as large as the German population unoccupied. And the areas lost had all the oppressed and consequently less loyal non-Russians in the western republics so most of the Soviet population available was Russian.
 

Alerias

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A slightly OP Axis VS their historical strength levels is desirable I think. Makes the sides a bit more even than they should be. Kinda need to if you want the game to be fun and just the right amount of challenging, for both sides really.
 

wosung

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There are a number of assumptions underlying your argument that, if examined, challenge the notion that a continental superpower would have been unbeatable even with time for Britain and France to arm or rearm.

1) Germany defeats the Soviets quickly and painlessly: If Germany fights a protracted war with the Soviets and sustains even half its historical casualties on the Eastern Front, that's manpower and material not available for later. Keep in mind, it might only take Britain 2-4 years to rearm to the point where she feels confident that she can dictate terms to Germany, assuming France has also done the same. If Germany initiates a war with the Soviets (or gets attacked by the Soviets) in 1939, and doesn't win by 1941 while Britain continues to rearm, the balance of power does not swing Germany's way for some time.

Note that occupying a significant portion of the Soviet Union, and actually forcing them to surrender, are not the same things. A historical partisan campaign against Axis occupation would still tie up resources even if the Germans make it to the Urals.

2) Annexing the Soviet Union solves Germany's resource deficits in critical areas: Annexing the Soviet Union may not end up solving Germany's resource deficits. It would help, but if Tooze is right, Germany is still in a deficit for critical things like food. That means Germany has to have a navy, which it can't build up fast enough or large enough to challenge British naval superiority (to the point where Germany can ship resources freely). It would take years. Even the Germans didn't think they could reach 35% of British naval strength before 1943, and that's without fighting a war. It would take years to reach any kind of naval parity with Britain.

3) Germany is just as strong without occupying France and Benelux as she was historically: If Germany only marches east, France remains intact and Germany cannot occupy or extort resources from metropolitan France, nevermind Benelux. Let's not forget that the "continental superpower" that you claim "it took half the world to defeat" managed to seize the industrial heartland and coal reserves of France, a major power in its own right. Also, a rearmed Britain would have far more than 13 divisions to contribute to the defense of France the longer they have to rearm. Sure, you can ridicule the French army all you want for failing to defend France (I won't, but some folks do), but adding another 1,000,000 British troops to the defense of France would make a significant difference; the mere presence of a place for those troops to go and defend in the first place would put Germany in a difficult position even if the French army doesn't further modernize or improve its manpower position.

4) The German people don't care about consumer goods or the economy: A further consideration is civilian demand for consumer goods. If Tooze (and Schacht for that matter) is right again, further German rearmament would have resulted in economic failure. So Germany either has to slow down further militarization, loot resources from the Czechs, French, Dutch, and Belgians, or mobilize fully to war footing and hope the people accept it. I wonder if the German people would have been nearly as accepting of a large war with a lower standard of living and no quick victory over France to buoy Nazi political support.

5) Germany has the freedom to commit 100% of its military strength against the Soviets: Just because the Nazis and Soviets spark a huge war in Eastern Europe, it doesn't mean that Germany has no military commitments in the west. In fact, the irony is that if Germany does commit everything to a war in the east, France and Britain have an easier time demanding stuff from Germany. If Germany doesn't commit everything to the east so it can cover its western frontier, then it's back to the problem of 1941, where even though there is no fighting in France, Germany has to station forces there to cover the area in case of attack.

The irony of this discussion is that it reveals how useful the M-R Pact was. Whether Germany attacked France or the Soviets first, without a clear guarantee that they wouldn't be attacked from the other direction, Germany's position was precarious. If Britain and France just use the time to rearm while Germany and the Soviets fight each other, they could be in a far better position than they were historically, even if the Germans manage to somehow win.

And while you think the M-R Pact didn't work, I would argue that it helped the Soviets immensely. The catch is that the Five Year Plan in effect during the M-R Pact assumed war in 1943, so they weren't done rearming. The pact wasn't a problem; Germany breaking it ahead of the Soviet timetable certainly was.

EDIT @stayfroty: And as for the French army being the largest in 1939, it was certainly large. However, many divisions in 1939 were reserve formations with crappy equipment and older soldiers. These reserve formations were also not trained very well. You can't fix the age of soldiers, but you can fix the equipment and training problems with time and material.

Please, read my post again: I didn't write after a (irreal) one-front war Germany would have been unbeatable. Just even harder to beat than IRL in a 2 or 3 front war.

My point is that there wouldn't have been a one-front war for Germany just because its non-fighting European or American enemies afterwards would have had an even harder time to beat Germany. (Germany's Achilles heel was lack of certain ressources. Domination of continental Europe would have helped.) Thus, they would have intervened before any meaningful potential ally would have been destroyed in such a one front war by Germany.
Besides, a one front war would have been also a fiction because, could have Germany in such a case left its other borders (nearly) unguarded? No. That's the meaning of central position.

Stalin is a special case. He counted for a long war of attrition between capitalistic Wallies and fascist-capitalistic-Nazi Germany. Special case, because in Soviet Russia (like in Nazi Germany, but unlike Britain, and USA) the great foreign policy was decided by a dictator and not by a comitee or group. Unlike France 1940 the Soviet Union 1941 was saved by it's vast territory, (in)direct Wally support and the systemic brutality of the German occupation precluding collaboration for the majority of its population.

In the short run the MR pact helped Germany more than Russia. It was the prerequisite for the campaign in the West, which was the prerequisite for the war against Russia. Arguably, the economic follow-up treaty of the MR Pact gave Germany more ressources than it could squeeze out of Russia after Summer 1941. Because of that Stalin couldn't imagine an attack in 1941. Stalin miscalculated the German success 1940 in the West. Hitler miscalculated the staying power of Soviet Russia.

For Germany no more mister nice guy had nothing to do with reperations. The Hitler system WANTED treaty revision and more through war. Thus it rearmed in a way that didn't left any choice besides starting a cascade of predatory wars to feed the system for the next war.
 

misterbean

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Belgium was much too devoted to their neutrality to join the Allies. Even during the Phoney War, we were trying to play a Switzerland game.
As for the viability of a 1939-1940 Barby, I don't know one way or the other.

My earlier post about "nice guy" involves at least 1 thing: abiding by the Munich Pact. That meant foregoing on the excellent Czech industry. I don't know how realistic HOI 3's stand is regarding a UK DoW in 1940 without the Vienna Award to trigger things. Getting a solid launch platform for invading the Soviet Union would involve Polish territory. Pretty hard to form an actual picture.

However, I do know the way Göring pictured things.

1) Don't antagonize UK + France more than you have to.
2) Use Swedish diplomats to play moderator with UK and France.
3) Get Poland into the Axis (what do you think all those hunting parties on his estates were for?)
4) Possibly talk to the Baltic states as well.
5) With all that in place, attack the SU.
6) Enjoy plundering the art treasures from Leningrad???
 

Rrr

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Earlier (page 10) in the thread there was an argument weather Germans could have win the war in east if they would start it later and therefore concentrate more resources. I have an opinion that war would be different however I am not sure in which favor.

The often overlooked fact is the structure of prewar Soviet economy and early Soviet gains (Baltics, Poland, Romania).

Prewar Soviet economy was specific in sense that it was historically built from needs of revolution. That means that it was not only planed (5 years cycle I believe), but it was also planned for war. And by 1940 the “planning for war” was just become effective and not yet economy collapsing.

Economy
Important here is remember that planning cycle was specially designed such that military is above all other economy requirements. First military districts give their estimates of their needs if the next 5 years is peace and needs if there is war. Then central planners “calculate” what types of production capacity military needs. Then planers calculate what type of factory producing capacity is needed to create the first type of military capacity. The soviets the first build factory producing equipment and the military producing equipment.

The next important thing is what to do with military capacity if war never comes. For example tank factories were explicitly build to produce tractors in peace time. However in case of need the factories can be very quickly converted into tank production. I’ll give no other examples to be short.

The official doctrine (secret at that time, now available) was that in order to spread the “revolution” there will definitely be war. The most important advantage in such a war can be obtained if military production capabilities remain as much as possible secret (in order not to allert the openent until it is too late) but on short mobilization notice. Actually exactly this happened in real life.

Early Soviet gains
The early Soviet occupation of large territories (that was ignored by west) gave them buffer were in case of war the actual sufferings and industry destruction comes to not yet real soviet people. And that actually very much happened in real life since the territories of Russia itself was hardly penetrated. Germans achieved success only in occupying only newly acquired and Ukrainian lands (remember in 193x. the Ukraine had Soviet induced hunger) and only a token of Russia proper. That is also to remember today that most of the Soviet sufferings was not beared by Russians as they claim today (and the public in general agrees).

What happens if war is delayed
This gives both Germans and Soviets more time to prepare. Since the Germans was actively spending the resources in other war I would argue that more likely the Soviets will be even better prepared and had more time to properly “Sovietize” newly conquered territories.

The best case for Germans would have been not to war the Soviets. However it is 99% percent clear that Soviets would have started the war when they feel it is most advantageous to them. So this looks like lose-lose preposition to Germans.

If immediately after defeat of France Germans instead could have offered HUGE successions and peace gestures to English and tried to sue for peace based on restoring pre 1939 borders (with exceptions of Danzig and Alsace) then maybe Germany could have survived. Also Germany should have let Italy to war (or to decide not to war) alone and definitely do not interfere in Japan affairs. The greed was German downfall.
 
Last edited:

Smitzer

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However, I do know the way Göring pictured things.

1) Don't antagonize UK + France more than you have to.
2) Use Swedish diplomats to play moderator with UK and France.
3) Get Poland into the Axis (what do you think all those hunting parties on his estates were for?)
4) Possibly talk to the Baltic states as well.
5) With all that in place, attack the SU.
6) Enjoy plundering the art treasures from Leningrad???

This kind of "diplomacy" is something that HOI series unfortunately do not offer but it would be awesome. Less scripted events more sandbox feel. To actually influence things your way from the start.
 

21oliver

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Part of the problem (and i never understood) is some players ranting for more historical behavior as opposed to plausible behavior. If the game were truly historical no one would want to play, there would be no point. We cant create human behavior in the AI so the solution really is more if this happens then this, elseif this happens then this... type of scripting, and have it cover many different possibilities. The problem is its time consuming and PI will only want to do so much. Having Majors follow scripts that no longer make sense when the game takes unusual turns along with minors who simply sit around and do nothing doesnt make for an entertaining game. An example i use is if im playing the Soviet Union and i get aggressive and take Poland and the Baltics early, then Germany should adjust, change their production (less naval units) and prepare better defenses on the east and less focus on the west and following the usual script (low countries, norway, france etc...).

Im a firm believer in more randomization, i dont neccessarily mean sandbox, i just want to be able to play a dozen games say as Germany and have each one be at least a little bit different. If it was a perfect world at the games start random numbers would determine which of several paths each nation (majors at least) would take. That would truly make for interesting games.
 

keynes2.0

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Belgium was much too devoted to their neutrality to join the Allies. Even during the Phoney War, we were trying to play a Switzerland game.

Belgium was coordinating with the France and England for when not if allied troops would enter the country. Germany had gone east first I think it's a safe bet that French and English troops would be garrisoning Belgium within months.
 

21oliver

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When it was obvious to everyone Germany would invade Belgium still clung to neutrality and refused the French entry. If Germany went east first there would be even less reason for Belgium to be concerned and join the Allies. Most of the european nations lived in their own little fog. The only nations that really feared Germany after Poland was the UK & France.
 

Opanashc

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Before Germany attacked SU, Stalin had reports, stating that Germany had ~100 divisions on Soviet border, and ~120 facing England in various theaters. If UK was no longer at war with Germany, what would reports to Stalin say about Germany's force deployment? Would that force Stalin to order the Red Army onto a war footing, and prevent Germany from exploiting the attack on an enemy which did not deploy its troops into the field? Would that change outcome of the first few weeks of the war in the East? And into who's favor?
Its a lot more complicated than it seems.
 

21oliver

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Everything about the the whole war is very complicated, more so then people tend to make it here. I agree with you. So many people are so 100% sure of their opinions, to me everything was alot more grey then black and white. Many of the key decisions of the war, by numerous individuals were decisions that didnt make sense, often irrational and impulsive and in the face of logic. Sometimes they were daring, sometimes they were naive or ignorant to the obvious (to everyone else) consequences. WW2 was the most complex war in the history of the world with so many elements involved and on such a vast scale. I spent over 10 years myself designing a game about it and still wasnt happy with it. PI has their hands full. I for one have my expectations more on getting the obvious elements correct and dont concern myself too much with the nuances.
 

keynes2.0

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When it was obvious to everyone Germany would invade Belgium still clung to neutrality and refused the French entry. If Germany went east first there would be even less reason for Belgium to be concerned and join the Allies. Most of the european nations lived in their own little fog. The only nations that really feared Germany after Poland was the UK & France.

Belgium mobilized it's forces, fortified it's territories and entered an agreement with France and England. Those aren't the actions of a country that isn't expecting a war. If Germany gave them more time to prepare they would have continued to prepare. If German troops aren't positioned to attack Belgium when it invites France and England in and gives up it's neutrality, then Belgium would be a lot more inclined to give up neutrality rather then waiting for the attack.
 

misterbean

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Belgium mobilized it's forces, fortified it's territories and entered an agreement with France and England. Those aren't the actions of a country that isn't expecting a war. If Germany gave them more time to prepare they would have continued to prepare. If German troops aren't positioned to attack Belgium when it invites France and England in and gives up it's neutrality, then Belgium would be a lot more inclined to give up neutrality rather then waiting for the attack.

The only real agreement we had with France and England was to give them access and talk strategy WHEN we were invaded. Not before.
 

21oliver

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That was the understanding i had as well. In fact from what ive read when the whole world thought that invasion was imminent Belgium still rebuffed France and clung to neutrality...
 

misterbean

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That was the understanding i had as well. In fact from what ive read when the whole world thought that invasion was imminent Belgium still rebuffed France and clung to neutrality...

It's very simple really. The Belgian government was terrified of doing anything whatsoever that would make them a target of Germany. So in the end, they did nothing...and became a German target :)
 

Beagá

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It's very simple really. The Belgian government was terrified of doing anything whatsoever that would make them a target of Germany. So in the end, they did nothing...and became a German target :)

"Strong do what they can, weak suffer what they must" :) Still true after all those centuries...
 

keynes2.0

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The only real agreement we had with France and England was to give them access and talk strategy WHEN we were invaded. Not before.

Which was a big shift over no agreement at all. I get that the Belgians were still neutral but they were clearly a lot less neutral then they had been before.
 

Opanashc

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Belgium repealed its little alliance with France, after the French did nothing to stop Germany from breaking the Versailles treaty back in mid-30's, when Germany could do nothing to prevent France from doing anything.