Sure it could, when you consider the state limit making a lot of russian land going to be pretty damn bad, the Russian region alone has 16 states compared to the french region's 13. Add to this the fact that in those 13 regions there is (manually checked may be slightly off numbers) 724 dev for france in those 13 regions compared to 461 in Russia's 16.
I'm sorry, I don't understand your logic. Just for a minute, if we consider development as population, it does not matter HOW MANY provinces a country have.
It could be 10 50-dev provinces or 100 5-dev provinces, etc. I was talking exactly about
population, not about how much a country has autonomy in its lands, not about how many square miles it covers, not about how much does a country have control over their lands, not about who is stronger or weaker, but about development as population in houses.
So, Muscovy by 1500 usually has more development (aka population, as considered in above paragraph) than France by the same date.
Meanwhile, according to historical facts, France had thrice more people (aka in-game development) than Muscovy.
As for weakness / power, IMHO Russian Great Power
should not artificially get development-wise bigger than, e.g., France to be on par with her in power.
Besides, Muscovy-Russia was never as powerful as France or Ottos before “westernization” of 1700s. It just was too far away in snowy deserts of the Little Ice Age, therefore had no strong rivals—none really cared to conquer those cold, endless, non-inhabitable lands (except borderline conflicts with Sweden or Poland). Only by the 18th century (1700s) Russia went on a conquering rampage, increasing their lands (and population) in quantum leaps.
Unfortunately EU4 does not consider this; i.e., you don't care where your conquered provinces are located—they just provide flat development when cored.
Indeed, gameplay-wise weak Muscovy will be immediately gobbled by neighboring countries.