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Kristof73 said:
So with huge luck any event could fire after even one day of waiting or teoretically never ....
Yes, as Inca I was aiming for the Westernization event, which has a 15 year MTTH (not counting some minor multipliers). One requirement was a 100+ relation with a European power. So I sent gifts to Castille until I got over 100 relation, and the Westernization event triggered even before the diplomat that gave the last gift got back. Talk about luck!
 

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For a month MTTH, after 30 days you get an expected value of 0.685200947

For a 25 year MTTH, after 25 years you get an expected value of 0.693120489

And so in all cases in EUIII, the expected value will equal 1 at 1.45*MTTH.

Technically not a constant, but for the purposes of EUIII it might as well be. (Just wanted to quantify the "hangs" in your "in practical cases hangs around .69 usually" bit.)

...

Wow. 4.32*MTTH for 95% probability of event happening at least once is a long time in the case of the great men.

And if you had 3 great men, you could just simply divide that 4.32 by 3 if I am understanding what is going on here correctly?

So you could say there is a 95% chance that one of those great men would fire at least once within (4.32/3=1.44) 1.44*MTTH?

Damn. So if Kanitatlan's Ming turbo AAR relies on great men is going to be something of a crapshoot :(.

But when you drop it down to a 75% chance of one great man firing at least once it goes down to:

log(0.25) / log(0.5) = 2

And then (2 [75% chance of great man firing]/3 [total great men])*25 years [Great man MTTH] = 16.67 years.

Booooooo. Still much longer than I'd like.
 

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Primus Inter Pa said:
And if you had 3 great men, you could just simply divide that 4.32 by 3 if I am understanding what is going on here correctly?
Yes.

So you could say there is a 95% chance that one of those great men would fire at least once within (4.32/3=1.44) 1.44*MTTH?
Yes.

Damn. So if Kanitatlan's Ming turbo AAR relies on great men is going to be something of a crapshoot :(.
I thought our god of war (hallowed be his FAQ!) was quite willing to go on with almost constant -3 stability. Besides, 95% certainty is definitely an overkill.


And then (2 [75% chance of great man firing]/3 [total great men])*25 years [Great man MTTH] = 16.67 years.

Booooooo. Still much longer than I'd like.
16 years is nothing :). There are 340 years in the game.
 

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Primus Inter Pa said:
And if you had 3 great men, you could just simply divide that 4.32 by 3 if I am understanding what is going on here correctly?
All three of the same type? I'm not sure, but isn't the event a country event; i.e.- it checks to see if a given country has a (one or more) advisor of that particular type of at least that level?

And if you mean three top-ranked advisors, each of a different type, the checks are independent, as they would be for three different events.

-Pat
 

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pjcrowe said:
All three of the same type? I'm not sure, but isn't the event a country event; i.e.- it checks to see if a given country has a (one or more) advisor of that particular type of at least that level?
And if you mean three top-ranked advisors, each of a different type, the checks are independent, as they would be for three different events.
-Pat
Every type of advisor (+5 skill and +6) has another great man event. When the event is fired, then country has a flag ex. philosopher, trader etc. and any other this type of advisor, could not trigger great man event any more ..... (Tell me if I am wrong here ...)

So player should remember what type of advisor has generated this +3 stability event and don't hire this type again, when counting only on great man event.
 

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so for unify Germany - I have about a 400 MTTH with the modifiers (it's like 420 or so).

To have a decent chance of success, I'll have to wait about 600 months?? :eek:

Geez - 400 months seemed long enough...*sigh*
 

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I meant three different types, as I think Ming has access to them at the beginning of the game, but I checked the file pjcrowe and you are right. It is a country event. So no taking 2, say, merchants in order to get a higher chance of getting a merchant great man event.

And each type of great man will only fire once per game, that is correct. Once you have had a philosopher Great Man, you can never have another philosopher Great Man event.

Because of course, after a country has had one great painter, like Leonardo da Vinci, or philosopher, like say Socrates, it is impossible that that same country will have another great painter or philosopher ever again.
 

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Seyal said:
so for unify Germany - I have about a 400 MTTH with the modifiers (it's like 420 or so).

To have a decent chance of success, I'll have to wait about 600 months?? :eek:
It all depends what constitutes a decent chance for you. After 420 months of waiting it is already more probable that the event has already fired than not.

Of course, if it hasn't fired after 600 months you'd still have to wait 400 months more on the average :D