Another separate point should be made on diplomatic model of the game. Powers make calculations (and miscalculations) of their own power and interests and of the power and interests of other countries. However, these calculations are not necessarily at a single point in time. In fact, for both good and bad trends, there is a LINGERING effect that must be accounted for. Let's say that the year is 1890 and Russia must decide how to respond to a war between France and Britain. A large part of the calculation by the tsar is going to be concerning Russian interests and relative power in 1890 and perhaps within the immediate future. But another large aspect (easily overlooked) is how Britain and France have been treating Russia and its allies during the 1880's or even before. Part of this can be reflected merely by having a "relations" score between the powers involved (like in EU: -200, damn they hate me!), but I would suggest that it is even more involved than just that. Anyway, let's not ignore this crucial point.
Historical examples are surely many to support this point. Let's just look at a simple one. When Russia faced an uprising by the ungrateful, selfish, former-Russian-oppressing Poles (forgive my propaganda), there were many nationalists and liberals in Prussia that wanted to support the Poles against Russia. Hell, all of Europe was taking Poland's side! But the Prussian leader with exceptional foresight Bismarck chose to act against this "popular tide" and in fact did exactly the opposite and chose to support Russia in suppressing the Poles. Many in Prussia were mad, and even many Russian patriots were mad (saying, who does Prussia think it is that we would need their help?!), but the key thing is that in the end, the tsar was extremely grateful for Prussia's help, and when the decisive time came when Prussia was in war with France, the Russians remained neutral out of gratitude for Prussia's earlier support in Polish crisis. Now, it is clear with hindsight and perhaps at the time too the it was definitely in Russia's interest that Prussia LOSE against France and that the dangerous possibility of German unification be dissolved. But gratitude was powerful enought to overcome these calculations. Should this always be the case? Of course not. But let us not forget that favors or revenge for past deeds can sometimes be powerful factors in determining international behavior.
How about an example in reverse? Later Russia became involved in struggle with evil Austria for control of Balkans area. Russian tsar expected (perhaps naively) that Prussia would support Russian claims vs. Austria in gratitude for earlier Russian "beneficial neutrality" in Franco-Prussian war. However, the ungrateful Prussia chose to dishonor this favor and instead to pursue its current interests, supporting Austria to keep Russia out of the Balkans. So in that case, the favor did not work. But then we see the reverse, which was that the tsar was so pissed off about this German treachery that he remembered it for a long time, and this among many other issues led Russia finally to embrace France against Germany (and Britain, but that is another story).
We could go on, but the point is made: sometimes, favors and revenge do matter, and the calculations are not just made on account of current factors but also the "lingering" factos of past treatment and mistreatment.
Historical examples are surely many to support this point. Let's just look at a simple one. When Russia faced an uprising by the ungrateful, selfish, former-Russian-oppressing Poles (forgive my propaganda), there were many nationalists and liberals in Prussia that wanted to support the Poles against Russia. Hell, all of Europe was taking Poland's side! But the Prussian leader with exceptional foresight Bismarck chose to act against this "popular tide" and in fact did exactly the opposite and chose to support Russia in suppressing the Poles. Many in Prussia were mad, and even many Russian patriots were mad (saying, who does Prussia think it is that we would need their help?!), but the key thing is that in the end, the tsar was extremely grateful for Prussia's help, and when the decisive time came when Prussia was in war with France, the Russians remained neutral out of gratitude for Prussia's earlier support in Polish crisis. Now, it is clear with hindsight and perhaps at the time too the it was definitely in Russia's interest that Prussia LOSE against France and that the dangerous possibility of German unification be dissolved. But gratitude was powerful enought to overcome these calculations. Should this always be the case? Of course not. But let us not forget that favors or revenge for past deeds can sometimes be powerful factors in determining international behavior.
How about an example in reverse? Later Russia became involved in struggle with evil Austria for control of Balkans area. Russian tsar expected (perhaps naively) that Prussia would support Russian claims vs. Austria in gratitude for earlier Russian "beneficial neutrality" in Franco-Prussian war. However, the ungrateful Prussia chose to dishonor this favor and instead to pursue its current interests, supporting Austria to keep Russia out of the Balkans. So in that case, the favor did not work. But then we see the reverse, which was that the tsar was so pissed off about this German treachery that he remembered it for a long time, and this among many other issues led Russia finally to embrace France against Germany (and Britain, but that is another story).
We could go on, but the point is made: sometimes, favors and revenge do matter, and the calculations are not just made on account of current factors but also the "lingering" factos of past treatment and mistreatment.
