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What if Hitler did not attempt Operation Barbarossa in 1941 and decided to finish his assault on Britain first?

Providing that against all odds, Operation Sealion succeeds, we have the entirety of Western Europe under control of the Reich. The player, as the Third Reich, can choose to pursue a variety of options: assuming Operation Sealion results in a puppet state such as the one in Vichy, France, the player can choose to directly incorporate it as well as Vichy France into a Germanic pan-European empire, perhaps even making German a mandatory language in schools. Or, he can choose to maintain the status quo and keep the conquered territories as puppet states.

As for Italy, it should be able to better its shoddy military with the help of German advisors, if Germany agrees. Mussolini's goal of a revived Roman Empire can come to fruition with the addition of North African territories, as well as its Greek conquests in 1940. Latin can be reinstated as a state language and be mandatory in schools- Mussolini himself can proclaim himself Emperor of the revived Roman Empire as well. Germany can choose to give Vichy's Occitania, due to its Latin heritage, to its Italian/Roman ally if it decides to dismember Vichy. Or, it can choose to keep it, creating tension. Eventually, the possibility of a war between the two former allies of Italy and Germany can become a possibility.

The issue of Spain is also important- Germany may be able to entice it to join the Axis if promised its lost New World colonies in South and Central America. Or, if Franco remains neutral like he did in real life, the Axis can either leave them be or dismember them, creating a new point of tension between Italy and Germany over how exactly the partition should take place. The Third Reich can claim Galicia and Northern Spain due to its Gothic heritage, and Italy can lay claim to Spain's Eastern Coast.

The British leadership flees to Canada and maintains control over the British Empire's colonies.

Meanwhile, the USSR continues to build up its industry and military. Germany and Italy (or the revived Roman Empire) can choose the extent of their relationship with the Soviet state- it can be hostile, lukewarm, or even positive.

Redrawing the world map can also be done with Turkey, perhaps promising them former Ottoman territories if they join the Axis. Or Italy can ambitiously invade Anatolia and annex it to the Roman Empire, but this would be extremely difficult considering the Islamic nature of the Turkish population and its historical dislike of foreign occupation. But this is a fringe scenario anyway.

Fighting will continue in East Asia with the Japanese crushing the Chinese or the Chinese successfully defending their territory. The aid the real life USSR provided to China can become a point of tension between the Axis and the USSR. A Japanese victory in China can establish a massive Japanese Empire stretching across all of East Asia, and can be a major player in world affairs.

With no German invasion in 1941, Stalin's plans for the New Moscow can come to fruition. The Palace of the Soviets can be built, providing a massive boost in Soviet prestige around the world. Likewise, the German plan for the reconstruction of Berlin can also be carried through (I wonder if it would be possible to create an in-game event to replace the province picture of Berlin and Moscow with the Volkshalle and the Palace of the Soviets, respectively?)

What other event chains would be possible in this alternate history scenario? What would be the best start date? It seems the natural course would be for a three-way Cold War in the Old World between Rome, Germany, and the USSR, and possibly Japan as well if it defeats China and establishes its hegemony in Asia. Perhaps a German invasion of the USA is also a possibility- followed by the Germanization of the USA, although if Operation Sealion was a stretch, a German invasion of the USA would be even more so.
 

Jekolmy

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I *think* in HOI 3 at least the game is scripted to have the Soviet Union (if Germany is the player) declare war on Germany when the UK no longer controls London to simulate Stalin getting nervous about Hitler clearing his flanks of hostile forces.

That being said a successful early Sealion might get Germany control over Iceland/Greenland rather than having its control turn from the UK to the USA. That would be a very positive boost for Germany. Portugal might be drawn into a diplomatic (only) conflict between the USA and Germany over the control of the Azores and military access to a fairly strategic island chain. And the Azores were used as a base to provide anti-submarine air cover in the Atlantic.
 

warpedmind

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the soviet union would had atacked germany once their build-up was completed.

hitler saw his only chance of winning in an early strike but it would have not be possible to avoid it. hitler and stalin are more or less archenemies
 

nachopontmercy

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the soviet union would had atacked germany once their build-up was completed.

hitler saw his only chance of winning in an early strike but it would have not be possible to avoid it. hitler and stalin are more or less archenemies

I´m not very sure of this. I have read in several books how Stalin refused to believe in a German invasion even when it was inminent and the Nazi Army was being deployed in the Russian borders. Neither i am sure there was any "build-up" focused to a massive war like this, not in 1941, as I think that the USSR wasn´t focused in preparing a war in a economical, technological or doctrinal way. In fact, despite of the repated warnings of an upcoming invasion, Stalin thought it was just British propaganda trying to force the Soviet Union into war.

Regarding to the 1st post, i cannot imagine Franco entering the Axis if a war is still on; Spain had just came out from a very destructive civil war, and most figureheads of Franco´s regime, as Carerro Blanco or Franco himself, believed that entering the war would destroy the country even further. In fact, one of Franco´s principal arguments for not joining the axis was that an American intervention was nearly unavoidable. However, i find very plausible the option of Hitler invading Spain after Sealion is completed; in fact, plans existed to overthrow Franco and install Muñoz Grandes in a pro-german Spanish Regime.

All in all, i like your mod idea. I don´t know how to write events or design graphical improvements, but if u need some historical or research help, id might be able to do so.
 

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Stalin knew a war was coming, but the German espionage system bombarded the USSR with various false reports on when exactly the attack would begin, so the exact date of June 22 was impossible to predict. The Soviet leadership had already hooked up lots in the Urals for factories to be brought over from the West in case of an invasion.

There was a massive industrial and military build up going on for a decade before the invasion:

"We are fifty or a hundred years behind the advanced countries. We must make good this distance in ten years. Either we do it, or they will crush us." -Joseph Stalin in 1931

10 years later, the Wehrmacht invaded the Soviet Union.

I don't believe the USSR would invade Germany if Sealion was a success- this does not make sense considering Stalin's realpolitik foreign affairs. The Cold War scenario is more likely, with tensions building up to a boiling point by the '50s.
 

nachopontmercy

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Taken from wikipedia (i know it´s crappy, but it is a nice copy-paste fast resource):

"During the early morning of June 22, 1941, Hitler broke the pact by implementing Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of Soviet held territories and the Soviet Union that began the war on the Eastern Front.[45] Before the invasion, Stalin felt that Germany would not attack the Soviet Union until Germany had defeated Britain.[46] At the same time, Soviet generals warned Stalin that Germany had concentrated forces on its borders.[46] As well, two highly placed Soviet spies in Germany, "Starshina" and "Korsikanets", had sent dozens of reports to Moscow containing evidence of a German attack.[46][47] Further warnings came from Richard Sorge, a Soviet spy in Tokyo working under cover as a German journalist.[48]

Seven days before the invasion, a Soviet spy in Berlin warned Stalin that the movement of German divisions to the borders was for the purpose of waging war on the Soviet Union.[48] Five days before the attack, Stalin received a report from a spy in the German Air Ministry that "all preparations by Germany for an armed attack on the Soviet Union have been completed, and the blow can be expected at any time."[49] In the margin, Stalin wrote to the people's commissar for state security, "you can send your 'source' from the headquarters of German aviation to his mother. This is not a 'source' but a dezinformator."[49] Although Stalin increased Soviet western border forces to 2.7 million men and ordered them to expect a possible German invasion, he did not order a full-scale mobilization of forces to prepare for an attack.[50] Stalin felt that a mobilization might provoke Hitler to prematurely begin to wage war against the Soviet Union, which Stalin wanted to delay until 1942 in order to further strengthen Soviet forces.[51]"

Therefore, a biuld-up was planned but not implemented at all, as they did not expected war so soon...and even if planned for 1942, i would have still my doubts they would be prepared for that date.
 

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Then someone had better come up with a credible alternate history for the Battle of Britain. With the UK's absolute naval superiority and considerable air strength, German landings on British soil would make Stalingrad look like a cakewalk.
 

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I think Hitler's one shot at the Soviet Union was 1941. Stalin knew what was coming and the Red Army was modernizing, but it would be at least until 1942 until the program was done. If the Wermacht takes a little detour to Britain it is bound to take loads of precious time and manpower away. I do not think a stalled Barbarossa would have worked in Germany's favor.
 

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Taken from wikipedia (i know it´s crappy, but it is a nice copy-paste fast resource):

"During the early morning of June 22, 1941, Hitler broke the pact by implementing Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of Soviet held territories and the Soviet Union that began the war on the Eastern Front.[45] Before the invasion, Stalin felt that Germany would not attack the Soviet Union until Germany had defeated Britain.[46] At the same time, Soviet generals warned Stalin that Germany had concentrated forces on its borders.[46] As well, two highly placed Soviet spies in Germany, "Starshina" and "Korsikanets", had sent dozens of reports to Moscow containing evidence of a German attack.[46][47] Further warnings came from Richard Sorge, a Soviet spy in Tokyo working under cover as a German journalist.[48]

Seven days before the invasion, a Soviet spy in Berlin warned Stalin that the movement of German divisions to the borders was for the purpose of waging war on the Soviet Union.[48] Five days before the attack, Stalin received a report from a spy in the German Air Ministry that "all preparations by Germany for an armed attack on the Soviet Union have been completed, and the blow can be expected at any time."[49] In the margin, Stalin wrote to the people's commissar for state security, "you can send your 'source' from the headquarters of German aviation to his mother. This is not a 'source' but a dezinformator."[49] Although Stalin increased Soviet western border forces to 2.7 million men and ordered them to expect a possible German invasion, he did not order a full-scale mobilization of forces to prepare for an attack.[50] Stalin felt that a mobilization might provoke Hitler to prematurely begin to wage war against the Soviet Union, which Stalin wanted to delay until 1942 in order to further strengthen Soviet forces.[51]"

Therefore, a biuld-up was planned but not implemented at all, as they did not expected war so soon...and even if planned for 1942, i would have still my doubts they would be prepared for that date.

This gives an incomplete picture of events, as German disinformation tried to confuse the USSR as much as it could and sent out false intelligence that made it seem like the invasion would be planned much later.
 

Lyrecryer

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Then someone had better come up with a credible alternate history for the Battle of Britain. With the UK's absolute naval superiority and considerable air strength, German landings on British soil would make Stalingrad look like a cakewalk.

The plan was broken up into 3 stages:
The first stage was to destroy or reduce the RAF to uselessness, if that was completed then they will move to the next stages.
The Second stage was to distract the Navy by conduction an large scale Naval battle in the Med while this was going on an combined naval and air assault will begin in the south coast.
The final stage was to force an surrender by the Government and install a puppet. (Hitler liked then current King so much that he would had been installed for this puppet government.)

Thanks to the German pilots boasting higher kills than they really did, Goring felt that the first stage was completed and diverted his efforts from destroying aircraft and airfield to bombing cities. If he did carry on attacking the airfield then Britain may had lost the Battle of Britain.
 

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Maybe an anti-capitalist alliance can be made between Germany and the USSR against Britain? This is probably unlikely.

Possible event paths:

Germany:

-European confederation, with Germany at the center. Western Europe allied or puppets of Germany. A kind of fascist EU.

-Germania- Nordic Empire, controlling all of Northern Europe. Mandatory German in all classes, eugenic racial policies encouraging Nordic births. Overstretched, it can face internal dissent difficulties.

Post-Hitler succession:

-Speer and the less radical group.

-Rosenberg, Himmler, and the ultra-fascist Nordic supremacist group.

Italy:

-Isolationist Fascist Italy.

-Expansionist reborn Roman Empire, trying to take over all of the Mediterranean. Latin the new language of government and mandatory in schools.

Possible conflicts between the two allies can occur:

-When France is divided up, Italy/Rome can lay claim to Occitania. Germany can accept, or refuse, leading to worsened relations.

-If Spain pursued anti-Axis policies, it can be invaded. The North, with its Nordic (Visigoth) heritage will be claimed by Germany, whereas the Eastern coast by Rome/Italy.

-Former British colonies in Africa can either be German vassals or annexed into Italy/Rome. Or, Germany can create an allied pan-Arab state (Hitler's sympathy towards Islam is noted), and put it in conflict with Rome.

-A war between Rome and Germany may result in:

-German victory, most likely. All of Europe now annexed to Germania or puppeted in fascist EU.

-Italian victory. Propaganda of "Germanic barbarians" attacking Rome, much like in real life 1500+ years ago, may rouse Latin nations to fight against Germany.

USSR:

-Isolationist.

-Expansionist, annexing Communist areas of China and other areas into Soviet Socialist Republics. This will put it in conflict with Japan and thus with Germany. Germany can choose to continue supporting Japan or forego the alliance in favor of better relations with the USSR.

By the time Germany takes Britain, the Red Army will finish its expansion and be very powerful, and a Cold War scenario between the two, or three if German-Italian relations go poorly, powers can result. Perhaps the mod can be alternate history, with Tukhachevsky remaining as marshal, crushing Finland and annexing it to USSR proper, making the Germans doubt the success an invasion. Or not.

USA:

Without a WW2 to boost American industry, it is possible the USA will collapse. Or not.

If it does, a civil war may happen:

-Communist USA. Good relations with Soviets.

-Fascist USA. Good relations with Germany and maybe Italy.

-Isolationist USA led by military government.

The conflict over supplying the various sides may spark WW3 between Germany and the USSR. Or not.

Nukes:

-Germany will probably develop them first. If so, they may use them in a surprise attack against the USSR. However, Soviet spies may sabotage the program.

I know next to nothing about mods. How do I go about creating this? Is there a modder guide? The mod should start, I think, when Britain is destroyed- when? 1943? 1944? 1945? and the first decision being the fate of Britain, decided by Germany. Total annexation, total puppeting, or division into Scotland, Wales, England, etc and puppeting.
 
Last edited:

Melkor89

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Latin the new language of government and mandatory in schools.

Bah. Italian was (and still is) the language of Dante and Manzoni, and you can't easily replace it with Latin by decree. Also, the population at the time was highly illiterated. And Latin was already mandatory in high schools.