"Miracle on the Vistula" - Did It Save Europe From the Spread of Bolshevik Revolution?

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Who knows, maybe if communist revolution spreaded westward, and German communists take over (or rather regain) the leading role in the movement, they would have eventually also dominated the Russians and the system created wouldn't have been such totalitarian like that having origins in traditional Russian autarchy.

Funny enough, the Soviet turn to autocratic Stalinism was precisely because the Red Army was so weak. The Russians were shit scared of Japan. They watched the Japanese military build-up in the 1920s with increasing panic. The Soviet managerial bureaucracy (of which Stalin was just a spokesman at this stage) knew the dilapidated state of the Russian war industries, they knew the Red Army wouldn't stand a chance against a Japanese attack, and agreed there was no more time to pussy around with ideology. They decided Russia had about ten minutes left to industrialize and bring its war industries back up to viability, or it would be rolled by Japan. So out went Bukharin et al., in came Stalin, with their blessing and a blank cheque to do whatever he needed to do.

Now, if Communists had taken control of an already industrialized country, as you suggest, maybe the direction would have been different.
 
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Indeed. But no one says they would have been able to roll over Germany. The point is if their proximity would have triggered the revolution of the size of the Russian one. For me personally it is dubious, and even in such case its success would be still very uncertain. Moreover, talking about further spread, in the first case to France, which rather had meager communist traditions, is kinda naive.
But it is mainly a "what if" thread ;)

Well, their revolution did inspire a revolution in Germany and in Hungary.

That said, nobody had a communist tradition because (with the exception of Germany, Hungary and the ex-Tsarist countries) there were actually no communist parties in Europe in 1920. ;) They were all Socialists. Communist parties only began to split from the Socialists after that. Of course it was a veritable wave in 1920-21 (as per Comintern). But I am not seeing history being very alternate for what it was. The Socialist-Communist split may place the latter at Moscow's direction, but it also weakened what they would be able to do on the ground. And, de facto, achieved nothing.

I don't think having some Red Army units a few miles closer would change much of anything. Again, Red Army was not in good shape, and would not be able to intervene anywhere. This is not 1945.
 
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Well, their revolution did inspire a revolution in Germany and in Hungary.

That said, nobody had a communist tradition because (with the exception of Germany, Hungary and the ex-Tsarist countries) there were actually no communist parties in Europe in 1920. ;) They were all Socialists. Communist parties only began to split from the Socialists after that. Of course it was a veritable wave in 1920-21 (as per Comintern). But I am not seeing history being very alternate for what it was. The Socialist-Communist split may place the latter at Moscow's direction, but it also weakened what they would be able to do on the ground. And, de facto, achieved nothing.

I don't think having some Red Army units a few miles closer would change much of anything. Again, Red Army was not in good shape, and would not be able to intervene anywhere. This is not 1945.
Well, it wouldn't be "a few miles closer" only, and the German army wasn't in any shape in that moment :)
 
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I don't think having some Red Army units a few miles closer would change much of anything. Again, Red Army was not in good shape, and would not be able to intervene anywhere. This is not 1945.

Although the Red Army was fatigued by the Russian Civil War of 1917-1923, it was capable to refit and organize for other operations also. The Soviet westward offensive of 1918-1919 was a Russian SFSR campaign into the areas abandoned by the Ober Ost after the WWI. The campaign resulted a Red Army defeat, but however, it led to a much larger scale operations, like the Soviet-Ukrainian War of 1917-1921, resulting a Bolshevik victory and the Polish-Soviet War of 1919-1921.

The above campaigns prove, that the Red Army was capable of intervening in conflicts during its prelude time, during the Polish Campaign the Red Army numbered 6.5 million of men and 2.5 million of women and men reservists, although the Bolsheviks suffered lack of supplies, it was a huge and a formidable army in European size at least.

And if the Red Army stood in the eastern border of Germany in 1920-1923 - in my opinion - it would not have been satisfied only watching scenery.
 
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Pretty much all local forces in former Russian Empire started building their armies from scratch. They all had different advantages/disadvantages, like Bolsheviks controlling most important central regions while somewhat lacking in organized military leadership, Whites had lots of officers but early on lacked troops for those to lead so some officers even had to fight as privates etc. As war(s) carried on, all these disorganized military forces started shaping into more proper looking armies. In late 1918 Estonia managed to field few hundred hastily organized troops for defense of Narva, in late 1919 it could field a properly organized force of tens of thousands of troops with supporting artillery for the same objective. While Red Army 1920 wasn't at level of French army, they weren't some ragtag militia from two years earlier either.

Anyway, Soviets conquering Poland could enable them providing substantial boost to commies in Germany, but there is also plenty anti-communist opposition to resist them, so we could end up seeing another extremely brutal civil conflict. Russia itself lost several times more people in civil war then it had lost in World War I. All in all there would be probably lots of additional bloodshed in Europe, but the final outcome would be quite impossible to predict as it would depend on so many different internal and external factors.
 
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Well, it wouldn't be "a few miles closer" only, and the German army wasn't in any shape in that moment :)
Abdul is completely right. The red army of 1920 was a shambolic mess. There was no chance Germany would undergo a successful revolution just because this ragtag army beat the equally ragtag polish nationalists and then showed up at the pomeranian border.

Three things would have happened

1) the German government, at the time a centrist minority government without socialist participation, would become very concerned about the security situation, and approached both socialist SPD as well as anti republican DNVP about entering a government of national unity. The complicity of leading DNVP politicians in the Kapp coup attempt of March 1920 would be an irritation but they would overcome it. The radical left USPD and KPD would be under immediate suspicion and SPD would have to credibly disavow any ties with them. German political consensus, as much as such a thing could exist at that time, would shift to the right.
The right wing militias who crushed the leftist uprisings so far, would receive covert support and near unconditional backing from the newly reformed government. The SPD would be fully on board with this, since they had already made a choice to be an anti revolutionary party the year before.

2) foreign relations of the German republic: With Poland under communist rule, the German government has very strong arguments with which to approach the Entente about rearmament and suspension of the relevant paragraphs of the treaty of Versailles. The Entente, who are in occupation of the German Rhineland and numerous bridgehead zones across the Rhine, would feel sufficiently secure to allow some limited rearmament of the German republic. The Germans would re raise some of the disbanded divisions, paying close attention to political affiliations of officers and NCOs, equip them with surrendered weapons they receive back from the Entente, and send them east. The remnants of the polish nationalist movement would seek shelter in neutral countries or in Germany herself.

3) German pro revolutionary movements: The German revolutionaries, restless but up to that point repeatedly defeated wherever they rose up, would strongly agitate again. They would see a chance to reignite the radicals and launch another coup/uprising attempt with soviet aid. The problem: There would be no soviet aid unless the red army were to beat the German military and invade Germany proper. The weapons caches and organization of the German radicals were empty or seriously deleted due to repeated defeats the year before. And without weapons there is no chance of success against Freikorps and German army. No chance at all. And considering that 1920 was actually a year in which the economy was recovering I don't see how the threat / promise of invasion by the red army would help the cause of the German radical left. I think it would not help it at all since the non socialist parties held power at the time and the average voter / citizen was going to rally behind the government in this situation rather than oppose it.

So in conclusion I do not think Germany would have been in danger of a red revolution at all. Rather, a successful soviet war effort against Poland would mean the German center and right close ranks and receive foreign support. Germany might even fully slide into right wing autocracy if it came to war with the soviet army. Sorry Loup.
 
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@loup99 - Or you could cite the Gorbachev/Yeltsin experiment. But every time, Russia returns to repression and authoritarianism. That is why I think an early death for Stalin and the spread of communism over Europe would result in an authoritarian, repressive regime.

I have nothing against communism, socialism or capitalism - they are tools in the box, used appropriately in some situations or not, in others. But Russia, regardless of its political or economic system, has always reverted to an authoritarian state. Sometimes more so, or less so - but Kruschev's Russia, or Putin's Russia, differs from the Tsar's Russia, Lenin's Russia or Stalin's Russia only in degree of authoritarian control and repression.

It is the exceptions that test the rule - and the rule has been that up until now, whatever course it might temporarily try, Russia has returned to dictatorship.
The issue with this reasoning is that after the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and with the exception of Czechoslovakia, this applies to the entirety of Eastern Europe which had very unstable democracies and strong authoritarian tendencies. None of the countries that border Russia had any more democratic traditions. So to me it doesn't make sense to criticise Russia on that point in 1920, because in 1920 Russia is in a sense one of the most progressive countries in Eastern Europe with regards to policies in the immediate aftermath of 1917. Not to idealise the October Revolution and the Russian Civil War, but in terms of social policy and workplace democracy initially it is a big change.

Moreover, talking about further spread, in the first case to France, which rather had meager communist traditions, is kinda naive.
What? Are you saying France "had meagre communist traditions" in 1920? That doesn't make sense at all historically. Of course that there can not be any distinct communist tradition before the emergence of a communist party, that goes without saying. However, we were not talking about countries having established communist traditions, but rather of an European revolution. France had a series of strikes during the 1919-1920 period, with a very strong activity in key sectors of the economy, like transports and metallurgy. As I mentioned above, France also faced mutiny in the navy in the Black Sea. France didn't necessarily have a strong Marxist tradition originally, but by the 1920 Marxism was very much the predominant force and central in all minds, and especially the October Revolution and Bolsheviks were a strong driving force for revolutionnary sentiment. You have to realise that in December 1920 a majority of the SFIO splits to form the SFIC, which gained a lot of activists initially.

Now, if Communists had taken control of an already industrialized country, as you suggest, maybe the direction would have been different.
Who knows, maybe if communist revolution spreaded westward, and German communists take over (or rather regain) the leading role in the movement, they would have eventually also dominated the Russians and the system created wouldn't have been such totalitarian like that having origins in traditional Russian autarchy.
Well Germany would certainly have played a completely different role, but "totalitarianism" isn't really relevant as an association to Russian autarchy. Neither the Soviet Union in 1920 nor the Russian Empire in 1914 are the slightest totalitarian.

A bunch of ramshackle Hungarian vets put down the Hungarian Soviet.
The Entente played a key role in bringing down the Republic of Councils in Hungary, the Hungarian counter-revolutionnaries clearly failed to do so on their own.
 
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So to me it doesn't make sense to single out Russia in 1920
Um, the current topic of conversation is a Soviet takeover of Europe.
 
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To be fair, I was in the topic of the thread and not generalizing about which European nations had an authoritarian history and which did not.

*Soapboxing* is what we do here. Or as it is sometimes known, 'having an opinion'.
 
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Um, the current topic of conversation is a Soviet takeover of Europe.
To be fair, I was in the topic of the thread and not generalizing about which European nations had an authoritarian history and which did not.
Yes, indeed, but as several other posters also suggested, I don't think that even if the Soviet had won the battle of Warsaw and then a European revolution had materialised the Soviet Union would have dominated Europe. There would have been Soviets, as in worker councils, and a Russian influence, but domination or hegemony is unlikely for the industrialised powers of Western Europe. Unless civil wars divide Germany and France so deeply that Soviet Russia is a pole of stability, in which case the Bolsheviks might have more weight. What I was essentially saying is that I don't think you can say there was a specific inherently Russian authoritarian tradition distinct from the neighbouring countries. I didn't want to start an off-topic debate, just suggest that if the Red Army goes further than Warsaw it does not necessarily have a different Russian attitude towards governance compared to the other countries. My point wasn't to seek authoritarian histories in Europe, but rather to relativise that authoritarian history in Russia through European examples. Maybe I generalised too much myself in that process...

Abdul is completely right. The red army of 1920 was a shambolic mess. There was no chance Germany would undergo a successful revolution just because this ragtag army beat the equally ragtag polish nationalists and then showed up at the pomeranian border.

Three things would have happened

1) the German government, at the time a centrist minority government without socialist participation, would become very concerned about the security situation, and approached both socialist SPD as well as anti republican DNVP about entering a government of national unity. The complicity of leading DNVP politicians in the Kapp coup attempt of March 1920 would be an irritation but they would overcome it. The radical left USPD and KPD would be under immediate suspicion and SPD would have to credibly disavow any ties with them. German political consensus, as much as such a thing could exist at that time, would shift to the right.
The right wing militias who crushed the leftist uprisings so far, would receive covert support and near unconditional backing from the newly reformed government. The SPD would be fully on board with this, since they had already made a choice to be an anti revolutionary party the year before.

2) foreign relations of the German republic: With Poland under communist rule, the German government has very strong arguments with which to approach the Entente about rearmament and suspension of the relevant paragraphs of the treaty of Versailles. The Entente, who are in occupation of the German Rhineland and numerous bridgehead zones across the Rhine, would feel sufficiently secure to allow some limited rearmament of the German republic. The Germans would re raise some of the disbanded divisions, paying close attention to political affiliations of officers and NCOs, equip them with surrendered weapons they receive back from the Entente, and send them east. The remnants of the polish nationalist movement would seek shelter in neutral countries or in Germany herself.

3) German pro revolutionary movements: The German revolutionaries, restless but up to that point repeatedly defeated wherever they rose up, would strongly agitate again. They would see a chance to reignite the radicals and launch another coup/uprising attempt with soviet aid. The problem: There would be no soviet aid unless the red army were to beat the German military and invade Germany proper. The weapons caches and organization of the German radicals were empty or seriously deleted due to repeated defeats the year before. And without weapons there is no chance of success against Freikorps and German army. No chance at all. And considering that 1920 was actually a year in which the economy was recovering I don't see how the threat / promise of invasion by the red army would help the cause of the German radical left. I think it would not help it at all since the non socialist parties held power at the time and the average voter / citizen was going to rally behind the government in this situation rather than oppose it.

So in conclusion I do not think Germany would have been in danger of a red revolution at all. Rather, a successful soviet war effort against Poland would mean the German center and right close ranks and receive foreign support. Germany might even fully slide into right wing autocracy if it came to war with the soviet army. Sorry Loup.
Interesting, thank you for taking the time to detail about Germany, I think it adds a relevant contextualisation to the discussion. What I thought about the Red Army vs Weimar Germany is that Germany itself had just suffered a major defeat and that its armies neither had the capacity nor the numbers to defeat an offensive from the east combined with a second attempt at a revolution. I don't see how France would have accepted Germany rearming itself so soon or getting a right-wing revanchist and revisionist government, but you are right to point out that the Entente would want to intervene to support Germany against a Red Army offensive. Maybe that could mean allied forces go even further than the occupation of the German Rhineland in terms of military presence? Your point about the SPD is rather convincing and historically the March Action with the Communist uprising in 1921 completely failed.
 
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Yes, indeed, but as several other posters also suggested, I don't think that even if the Soviet had won the battle of Warsaw and then a European revolution had materialised the Soviet Union would have dominated Europe. There would have been Soviets, as in worker councils, and a Russian influence, but domination or hegemony is unlikely for the industrialised powers of Western Europe. Unless civil wars divide Germany and France so deeply that Soviet Russia is a pole of stability, in which case the Bolsheviks might have more weight. What I was essentially saying is that I don't think you can say there was a specific inherently Russian authoritarian tradition distinct from the neighbouring countries. I didn't want to start an off-topic debate, just suggest that if the Red Army goes further than Warsaw it does not necessarily have a different Russian attitude towards governance compared to the other countries. My point wasn't to seek authoritarian histories in Europe, but rather to relativise that authoritarian history in Russia through European examples. Maybe I generalised too much myself in that process...


Interesting, thank you for taking the time to detail about Germany, I think it adds a relevant contextualisation to the discussion. What I thought about the Red Army vs Weimar Germany is that Germany itself had just suffered a major defeat and that its armies neither had the capacity nor the numbers to defeat an offensive from the east combined with a second attempt at a revolution. I don't see how France would have accepted Germany rearming itself so soon or getting a right-wing revanchist and revisionist government, but you are right to point out that the Entente would want to intervene to support Germany against a Red Army offensive. Maybe that could mean allied forces go even further than the occupation of the German Rhineland in terms of military presence? Your point about the SPD is rather convincing and historically the March Action with the Communist uprising in 1921 completely failed.
Yes Germany had been defeated in 1918,but you need to keep in mind this was not a defeat like the French defeat in 1940 or the German defeat in 1945. The German army was not beaten in the field, its divisions not surrendered to the enemy, and most importantly its men and officers not in prisoner of war camps. The entirety of German military manpower was still around, demobilized, and available to be called up again.

The German army in 1920 was not a broken army, far from it. The military leaders and taken great care to retain within the official army only the best of the best of the officer and nco corps, and in the enlisted ranks, only 150% reliable men. They were the cadres for the future rearmament, and a wholly reliable (for the generals) elite force with a strong political self consciousness. Because it was a volunteer force, there were no unhappy conscripts who would defect or elect a soldier's council. They were going to be loyal to their generals, and if the house of Hohenzollern came back they would be loyal to them.

And then you had the unofficial army, the numerous freikorps. These were like the landsknecht companies of the 30 years war, people who didn't want or didn't have peace time jobs, people who wanted to be around when there was going to be a red revolution, so they could kill people. Quite a few who had accumulated a habit of brutality and violence which they thought was the embodiment of warrior spirit (and a serious hindrance for reintegration onto civilian life). They were loyal to their commanders and the official army kept close connections to them, calling on them for the dirty work that the official army should not do for political reasons, like rounding up red leaders or anyone suspected of red sympathies, and massacring them on the spot. Or, fighting the polish nationalists in Silesia, something the official army was not allowed to do but obviously was going help anyone willing to fight for the "good" German cause. Or, on 1919, actually fight the bolsheviks in the Baltic region during the troubled months of 1919. The freikorps, too, were in a way picked men. They backed the right wing extremist causes in German politics and would continue to crush left wing uprisings wherever called upon. They would also eagerly jump on a chance to be part of reclaiming of German territory in Poland.

So, yes, in a way Germany was a defeated nation - the French and British and Americans and Belgians had beaten them and forced the peace treaty on them. Virtually all the heavy weapons had been surrendered to the Entente and were now in depots in Belgium and France. But they were not that weak. Certainly not submissive. The navy had scuttled their ships at Scapa Flow in 1919 in defiance of orders to hand the ships over to the British. That was emblematic of the spirit of defiance that the German military carried in themselves throughout that time. If called upon, a large army could quickly be raised again. And it could be equipped again very quickly, with its old weapons even, if the French and Belgians found it useful to do so.

Against this, I do not think the Russian bolshevists and the German revolutionaries had much of a chance.
 
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Lets say the incompetent Stalin dies after chocking on his own saliva and Poland falls to the Soviets, Germany follows suit and then France tries to resist and then surrenders after facing internal unrest.

Imagine a red Europe. A dead Stalin and a worldwide revolution led by Trotsky. The only enemies left for the Working class are the Anglos. The CCCP never becomes the tyrannical Empire it does in our timeline and the Polish have their own independent Socialist Republic without the Germans chimping out in the 30s and the Russians committing the atrocities they did in OTL.

The world would be so alien to us that i dont know how to end this post. Just imagine, Stalin dies at the start of the XX century....what a beautiful timeline.

Pure masturbatory fantasy
 
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Alt history is just that after all, just look at the Anglos and all their media sorrounding "what if nazis won" o_O

I'll have you know that TNO is a fine work of meth induced madness
 
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A bunch of ramshackle Hungarian vets put down the Hungarian Soviet.
Those were the guys who took over after it. But the group around Horthy had zero to epsilon contribution to the defeat of the Hungarian Soviet. It was the ten regular divisions of the Romanian Royal Army which did the fighting (well they probably wanted a little bit more than simply defeat the Hungarian Soviet). So even that was not such a simple matter.
 
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Claims of Poland saving Europe in 1920 are extreme hyperbole and completely ignore the sorry state of the Red Army and its logistics, and what European powers like Germany, France and England would have done if the threat to them became serious.
 
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Claims of Poland saving Europe in 1920 are extreme hyperbole and completely ignore the sorry state of the Red Army and its logistics, and what European powers like Germany, France and England would have done if the threat to them became serious.
Well they did save Europe from a direct confrontation with the young Soviet Russia. That much is beyond dispute.
 
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Claims of Poland saving Europe in 1920 are extreme hyperbole and completely ignore the sorry state of the Red Army and its logistics, and what European powers like Germany, France and England would have done if the threat to them became serious.
Poland "saved" itself from the perspective of the Polish nationalists and secured extended borders afterwards. From the perspective of the Polish communists it lost an opportunity of social and political revolution. As for "saving Europe", that is an image constructed by Polish conservatives who were opposed to the Soviet Union. If the Red Army had won the battle of Warsaw, the Soviet forces would have continued to advance and have been joined by revolutionaries from other countries. The question is indeed if that momentum and the hope it awakened amongst the communists, anarchists and others would have been enough to face the armies of the winning powers of the Entente. So when you talk about "saving" it really depends from what perspective you situate yourself.
 
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The Polish-Soviet war was already the confrontation between Western commies and the reactionaries. Poland relied on Western, mostly French, supplies of ammunition, which were blocked in ports by German revolutionary dockers. In this critical situation Hungary helped Poland with supplies from their stocks, but they were also blocked by treacherous Czechs... Eventually the French enforced them to let trains pass.
 
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