President de Fourgeres,
You are correct in your assessment of the situation. Russia feels that the Chinese are being excessive in their demands, and in fact may warrant little more than has already been extended them. To answer your questions:
If at least two other permanent members of the Security Council vote against the measure, Russia will do so as well. China obviously will not, and the French seem steadfastly against your country as well, leaving only the Americans and the British. We feel the British would be willing to side with Eutopia in this instance. The Americans are difficult to guage...as always.
Russia will absolutely support efforts to water down the resolution, and we expect that those will be undertaken shortly. The representative of the United Kingdom is preparing an amendment which would clarify your country's actions as not being an act of war, issuing strong disapproval of Admiral Tulp's actions, requiring the payment of a smaller amount of damages than the Chinese demanded, and requesting the return of the Hainan Star and any dead to China. We're willing to support this amendment, as are the Americans, as it walks a fine middle ground between condemning the tragedy that occurred, but also appeasing the Chinese. In a way, much of this is their fault...but as you acknowledge, they have a great deal of clout which we have no choice but to respect.
Finally, for Russia to exercise her veto...this is a difficult proposition to put a definite number on. Were we to be assured of continued sizeable arms purchases from your country, and perhaps some other form of economic partnership, we believe that a veto would become a very definite option. In fact, we have heard remarkable things about Neuwestbaden's Miniature Silicon Valley, and considering your current interest in the Air Superiority Fighter market, may have a perfect partnership in mind, if you are willing to opt in to a project along those lines.
Respectfully yours,
Sergei Karetin
Foreign Ministry of Russia