Mini France AAR - a struggle against the odds

[Alex Kernel]

Planning to defeat Nazi Germany

Numerous voices from left and right within the French society are publicly asking the French government to adopt decisive action against the Nazi aggressor. The public pressure to find a swift end to this war increases, the public opinion being oblivious of the disadvantageous military power differential between Nazi Germany and the Allies.

On the 26 January 1941, shortly after receiving news of the Nazi attack of Netherlands, the Social Liberal Prime Minister Albert Sarraut summoned a special meeting for the 1 February 1941 with the Head of Intelligence Felix Gouin, the Foreign Minister Georges Bonnet, with the Armament Minister Vincent Auriol, and with the Chief of the Airforce Marcel Deat with the specific aim to find out what France can actually do, and what strategic options the Allies have. Senior French officers, and the special British envoy for Allied military cooperation were also invited to participate, His Majesty's Government being asked to express the British view. The British Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Winston Churchill promptly announced it will participate in person to the meeting, in absence of any public announcement on the issue.

The French prevailing view, based on the intelligence provided by the French and German agents, and by the remaining Allied countries in Eastern Europe, Romania and Yugoslavia, with connections to Germany, is that the German production capacity is double the one of France, that the German industry has more advanced mass production capacities (production practicals), and that the German illegal research of tanks and airplanes in the Soviet Union since 1922 onwards has paid off (in game Leadership differential). The German and Austrian populations combined surpass by far the French mobilisation capabilities as well. Also, Slovak units with advance Czech military weapons have engaged French troops recently, and Hungarian troops are expected soon to enter action. As if that wasn't enough, in the diplomatic circles circulates the Rumour that the Nazis are discreetly negotiating with Italy to join the war against France, while Japan with her increasingly fascistic talk of the Japanese East-Asian sphere of influence entertains the prospect of declaring war to the Allied colonial powers concomitantly with Italy.

Mr. Churchill pointed out that Great Britain is avoiding any provocative behaviour against Italy in the Mediterranean in the hope to deter or at least delay Mussolini from starting hostilities, and is preparing her Navy for a potential conflict with Japan. British spies and diplomats have picked the information that Japan and the Soviet Union are in advanced discussions for a Soviet-Japanese Non-Aggression Treaty, which will be called the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact. The agreement is probably weeks of months away from conclusion, sped up by the Anglo-French public condemnation of the unlawful territorial partition of Eastern European countries by the Soviets and the Nazis. The Soviet Union is not intending to restore the Polish state, launching large scale ethnic cleansing operations in the former Eastern provinces of Poland. Similar actions occur throughout the invaded territories in an effort to change the ethnic composition and to diminish the statal claims of the native populations in the region. The Allied refusal to accept what the Russians see as simple "border corrections" has upset Moscow greatly, and Stalin's intent to avoid war in East Asia, indicates his focus is on Western Europe.

There is a real danger of a Axis-Comintern alliance, if the parties will find a mutual beneficial agreement regarding their spheres of influence, and will have enough trust in each other's international commitments and intentions. Alas, restarting the Comintern-Allied alliance negotiations is very challenging after all that happened.

The Allied prospects are bleak, if the US won't join the liberal-democratic alliance. Indeed, the French and British diplomats have been lobbying hard since the start of the war in Washington for an American involvement on our side, but the isolationistic mood in the country is set in granite. The US president Franklin D. Roosevelt, a career military man with charisma among the American people, is very sympathetic to our cause, but his attempts to join Allies have been in vane. However, he did gather bipartisan help in Congress for a Land Lease act, to be adopted in a matter of days.

The French army officials at the gathering pointed out that France cannot hope to defeat Germany alone anytime soon, while England has to use her industrial capacity to strengthen the Navy against Italian and Japanese overseas ambitions and against a German potential surprise invasion. According to them, the Allies should hope for a two front war against Nazi Germany. In this sense, three such scenarios have been drafted:

1. The US eventually joins the Allies, and starts with England an amphibious operation on the coasts of Northern Germany, while the French press from the West.
2. The Soviet Union declares war on Nazi Germany, and the Allies will have to push against the thinned German defences.
3. Italy can be convinced via strictly secret ongoing negotiations to declare war on Germany.

The first scenario is the most likely. The second variant would be tactically even better, but strategically a nightmare, since the Nazi threat will be replaced by an even bigger revolutionary Russian-Communist one. The last scenario is the weakest for a variety of reasons. Italy has modest industrial capabilities, lags technologically behind in several areas of land military endowment, and is splitting her production between Navy and the Land army. The fascist ideological background is problematic for the Allies, but Mussolini is known to be a pragmatic leader, ready to depart from dogmatic percepts when interests require. However, Italy has territorial claims on Yugoslavia, which is the weakest link in the Cordon Sanitaire, and on Greece, were the British Empire has a special interest to maintain exclusive influence.

Ebgland, Belgium and Netherlands can provide only limited support on the land frontline. France has to essentially resist alone. The only viable plan the French military comes up with is to build a shock force able to hit the Germans as soon as the second front war hopefully occurs.

The French industrial complex has developed and delivered up to date light and medium tanks, but France must during the next 12 months go to the next level: Only a few divisions of heavy tank brigades combined with TAC and CAS bomber groups could provide in a future offensive the punching power to break through the enemy defences. Developing heavy armour is very taxing for the French research facilities and production industry, but it is absolutely necessary. The good news is, the French air force has been massively built up, and together with British help it is successfully repelling the German airplanes. Besides, the necessary of new infantry divisions is not so pressing anymore. On the resources side, stockpiles of almost everything reached maximum levels, freeing France from the necessity to export large quantities of supplies, which is in fact IC consumption for trade. This releases production capabilities for heavy armours. More IC is steadily coming online from continuous investment, and the British government has agreed to compensate for his lack of land units on the frontline with a Land Lease programme, adding a minimum 20 IC to the French industrial production. The details of the support will be negotiated in the coming weeks.

On the negative side, Germany has more than double production capacity due to extra IC after the Anschluss and the Czech annexation, and practical bonuses super-seeding by far the French bonuses, spewing new units at an alarming rate. In addition, they are quite advanced in the design and production of heavy panzers. The first such divisions might be available in the autumn of 1941...

French Armoured Technological Advance in January 1941

 

[Wraith11B]

Great write up! Just make sure you're not crossing any lines from certain forum rules that might be questionable.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Great write up! Just make sure you're not crossing any lines from certain forum rules that might be questionable.

Thanks, hopefully no forum rules will be crossed here. ;-)

 

[Alex Kernel]

BATTLE FOR NETHERLANDS (I)

The first ten days into the war in Netherlands, the Allies are having a hard time to reach the best natural defensive positions. Netherlands Army and Air Force are weaker than those of Belgium, which makes the Anglo-French operations even more urgent than in Belgium's defence.

France chose to defend the river positions along the blue line, in the best case scenario. The second line of defence would be South of Amsterdam, since Amsterdam is indefensible with possible attacks from 4 neighbouring provinces. The third line would be... well, in Holland.

The Germans went for two well thought attack directions. In the North they intended to capture Amsterdam in a pincher movement. Their main thrust in the South was though via Roermond all the way along the Belgian border.

During the first days of invasion, the Germans concentrated on taking the most Southern province of Maastricht and on defeating the exclusive Dutch troops in the North-East.

The Northern Sector

The bulk of the Dutch troops was in the Northern sector, and their Aircraft did everything they could to make a stand against the all too powerful Luftwaffe. The Dutch Air Force lost rapidly strength, leaving the door open for the German aircraft to bomb the land defenders. The Northern frontline was broken in a matter two or three days.

The French, English and a few Belgian units moved at light speed toward their assigned defensive positions, this time knowing the drill from the Belgian campaign. On the 4 February 1941 the first French division reached the north-Eastern Province Zwolle, and starting fortifying, while the routed Dutch divisions were passing through. The Germans were first stunned to see the French so soon in Zwolle, and stopped the offensive to regroup, or wait for orders. The Dutch and French were happy things have worked so well, and everyone felt suddenly safe behind the river, or so we thought, at least.

At this juncture, the tricky point for the Northern defence was the isthmus like fortified strategic position of Afsluitdjik. The Dutch forces were retreating toward it faster than the French were moving by train to it. On the 7 February 1941 the first French division has only arrived in Amsterdam, and the Allied HQ was not confident at all that our troops will be at the destination before the Germans. In fact, the fear of failure was running so high that the French HQ has decided against placing the 13nth Garrison division in Amsterdam. We were expecting Amsterdam to fall before the French Garrison would be fully organized, and even at full capacity doubled by a second infantry division, it couldn't resist a combined German attack from 4 directions plus aerial bombardment. Besides, the Garrison has such a low retreating speed, that the troops would have been most probably captured. Concerning was that the Germans started concomitantly an attack between the Maginot Line and the Belgian border, tying down one of the two French armoured divisions on their way to Netherlands in a grinding defensive battle.

Consequently, the number of French divisions despatched to Netherlands decreased from 13 to 11.

The Southern Front - The battle of Roesmond

The big surprise was the focus of the German Southern offensive on Roesmond province. The two French divisions and other allied ones to cover the Central and Northern frontline had no problems reaching their advanced positions by moving behind the front, but the Fourth Infantry Corps from Hasselt was completely taken off guard. The 4th division had four divisions. One was ordered to further assist the Belgian troops in Hasselt, one would go to Roesmond together with a British Marine division, and the other two would move to the Venlo province marking the last segment of the Southern front segment.

Suddenly, Wehrmacht attacked Roesmond from three directions in parallel with a savage bombardment campaign, the result being very uncertain. The Allied Airforces were called in and did their most to counter the Luftwaffe in massive aerial confrontations, as there were never been before. The two TACtical French Bomber Groups attacked the provinces the attackers were coming from, in a desperate attempt to ease the enemy offensive, despite the risks from the German Interceptors. Our luck was, that the two air groups had just received Multirole fighters, doing an excellent job in giving the bombers the critical time to retreat when the INT came around.

Soon it became clear what the German HQ was up to. They were conducting a combined attack to break through the Allied defences in Roesmond with the clear intent to cut the Allied forces in two and capture the majority of them, including the 11 French divisions originally meant to secure the French-Belgian border segment. Such an outcome would doom not only Netherlands but France itself. The road to Brussels would be practically open, since the Belgian army alone would have no chance whatsoever to pose a meaningful resistance. From there France and England would have little left to stop the Nazis reaching Paris and force a French capitulation.

France urgently sent her last division in Hasselt to Roesmond, leaving the Belgian province dangerously exposed, while the Belgian HQ sent a motorised division to Venlo, thinly covered by two Dutch and British infantry divisions, and a third British light tank division. From Roesmond were retreating other two Dutch and English disorganized infantry divisions, who had beard the brunt of the first hours of the German multipronged attack.

In order to help the brave Roesmond defenders, a number of Belgian divisions present in the neighbouring Hasselt started a flank counter-offensive against the Maastricht attackers, helped by the French bombing campaign.

Netherlands' frontline on February 8th 1941

The aerial battles raged at an incredible intensity across the frontlines from North to South, an indirect sign that both parties have been beefing up their Airforces continuously.

During the last 7 days of aerial unpaused fighting The Axis and the Allied air groups collided in 12 bruising air battles, and led 77 bombing missions. However, the aerial confrontations started from the very first day of war over the sky of Netherlands, meaning the number of air battles for the first 10 days was closer to 20, and of bombings to 100. The French and Belgian Air Groups concentrated their operations in and around the Roesmond Region, given the colossal stake of that land battle, while the British and the Dutch Air forces fought predominantly in the North, in a bid to protect the defensive lines around Amsterdam.

7 Days of Air battles over Netherlands

The material and human losses in the Battle over Netherlands are staggeringly high. Given the chaotic circumstances in the Dutch battle zones it is impossible for now to quantify these losses, which are bound to increase dramatically.

Meanwhile, the English government lost no time and beginning of 1.02.1941 started effectively the Lend-Lease Program for France, sending armament in value of 21 IC/day. Paris is in the process to expand his industrial capacities by a wide margin, year after year, as long as the production reserves from production and trade allow it.

British Lend-Lease brings the French Industrial capacity to almost 200.

The War over Netherlands is far from concluded, and it continues to be a very dangerous Allied enterprise. The nerves are blank in all Allied capitals, with stakes as huge as the defeat itself.

 

[Eurasia]

Well, at least you are keeping the Germans at bay. They only have so much in the way of manpower against so many Allies.

 

[Bullfilter]

It was realistically assessed that keeping Amsterdam was far from certain, with a second frontline being prepared along the provinces Den Haag-Rotterdam-Gouda.

A prudent assessment.

Should Netherlands prove impossible to defend, the frontline will have to be stabilised along the Belgian Northern border...

Always good to have a Plan B. And C too!

The only viable plan the French military comes up with is to build a shock force able to hit the Germans as soon as the second front war hopefully occurs.

Only a few divisions of heavy tank brigades combined with TAC and CAS bomber groups could provide in a future offensive the punching power to break through the enemy defences.

Agree, very necessary for those tough breakthrough battles.

Good luck with the fight for the Netherlands. The German AI is trying it’s hardest.

 

[roverS3]

Things are getting tense again. I don't know if the line will hold. The Aflsuitdijk does seem rather far away. I do think you'll be able to hold the Southern Netherlands, the old Rhine (Oude Rijn) between Den Haag and Nijmegen seems like a decent defensive line, though it is quite long all things considered.

If you want to boost your Construction practical to speed up IC production, building Air Bases and Infrastructure takes less time, and gives a good boost to practical. You seem to already be building an Air Base, which will likely shave a few days off the completion date for the IC currently in production. Of course, building IC you're sacrificing production today to have more production tomorrow, so you're basically betting France will hold, at least until the IC in question is operational.

I'm eagerly anticipating France's next move.

 

[Alex Kernel]

BATTLE FOR NETHERLANDS (II)

My Kingdom for an Admiral!

By the 10th of February 1941 the German HQ recognized defeat in Roermond, and switched its main operations to the Northern frontline aiming for Amsterdam.

On that fateful day, a multiple sides attack on Zwolle began, against the confident and unsuspectingFrench-Dutch forces digging in for days. An aerial bombardment started in the first morning hours, sending our units for cover. Shortly after hell broke loose. Armoured divisions combined with SS units and heavy artillery created havoc among Allied troops. In two days the battle turned into a complete disaster, despite aerial cover by French and British INT wings.

Casuaties mounted to hundred of thousands (for historical realism I chose to multiply the showed death toll by 10), and the survivors flew to Amerfoort, were luckily on French division stopped by in its way to Amsterdam.

The French Headquarters couldn't understand how such an incredible defeat was possible, since the river defense bonuses should have discourage hostile operations from the very beginning. A few officers were dispatched to the regional headquarter to investigate what happened. It turned out, the French maps, were as a matter of fact, inaccurate. The river appearing in Zwolle on our maps, was actually dividing the province Amersfoort from Zwolle.

The local lower rank officers, who were not informed of the General HQ war plans for fear of espionage, thought the French army needed to secure a bridgehead in Zwolle in preparation for a full blown attack against the German troops. Consequently they secured the area around the bridges and prepared for a French trespassing for a surprise attack. As the Dutch and the French were drinking their Champagne hoping for the best disaster struck. Paris HQ, believing its divisions were safe behind the river line and the freshly built defensive lines radioed them to defend the lines whatever the cost, and that reserves were on their way.

On the 15 February 1941, what was left of one of the two French divisions reached Amersfoort with the news of the disaster. The passing French division immediately stopped to prevent a German blitz advance toward Amsterdam. The remnants of the Dutch-French defenders barely reached Amersfoort the next day, when the German assault began in earnest. The Amersfoort defence collapsed on the 18 Frebruary, and two days later German units at the outskirts of Amsterdam began the first offensive operation on the capital city. Amsterdam was at the time exclusively defended by Dutch units, able to defend street by street against enemy infantry, but less suited for artillery and armour attacks.

Appeldoorn remained the Achiles' Heel for both armies. The enemy troops in Arnhem started an all out offensive to take the only Allied point behind the German spearhead in Amersfoot. The combined Allied armies South in Nijmegen attacked Arnhem to relieve the Apeldoorn defenders, and the Axis troops nearby attacked Nijmegen. Attacks and counterattacks occurred along the entire frontline in only a few hours.

Guderian's armoured units who had made a name in the Polish offensive where by now pressing the Amsterdam defences, but the urban landscape made his life difficult. The terrified civilian population began on the 21 February to leave the city in droves, making impossible the retreat of military units. The Allied HQ were under tremendous pressure to prepare an orderly retreat, somewhere, south of Amsterdam.

At the Northernmost position in Afsluitdjik the Allied forces with a single French division, not even completely organized, were hopelessly outnumbered and outgunned to such a degree that the fortified positions were practically irrelevant. It was supposed that the Germans will start an attack at any time making any attempt to defend Amsterdam superfluous...

As incredibly as it sounds, an admiral saved the day! Admiral Chömpff, afraid that the Dutch Navy will be captured in the port of Afsluitdjik, retreated to the lake of IJselmeer, instead of fleeing to the North Sea, and from there he threatened to shell the isthmus separating the occupied Netherlands from the still free one, were a single long street on an impossible long dam (ask the Dutch about keeping water in check!) linked the two territories. French and English airwings were sent at once to patrol the area against maritime bombardment, a tactic the Germans were no strangers of. The enemy didn't dare to move across the Isthmus, and that gave the Allied HQ the psychological leverage to organize a last stand in and around Amsterdam. The multinational troops around Amersfoot were ordered to attack concomitantly on 23 February 1941, while the skies were littered with the exhausted airwings of the opponents. A very important contribution was the Medium Tank French division led by Maj. General Doyen, which attacked Guderian's troops from Utrecht (On the 15 February it was transiting the Belgian border province Turnhout - see the screen capture). Five days of heavy fighting made the German spearhead waver, and eventually retreat toward Zwolle. The German retreat was orderly though, without any losses of entire units. It is generally accepted, that that French Armoured division has turned the tide in the second battle of Amersfoort, punching through the enemy defence.

After that, not only the air forces were exhausted, but the entire land armies from both sides. The frontline stabilised, and a week and a half later the Germans tried a second, unsuccessful advance on Amsterdam. By the beginning of April 1941 the frontline has been stabilised, though at an immense cost in Human lives. The French army alone lost over half a million soldiers and the Zwolle fiasco leaked out in the press, affecting gravely the credibility of the government.

What do you do to bury an inconvenient scandal? The French prime minister did the sole thing, which came into his mind: he summoned a commission who would need years to find out what really happened. And it worked.

Admiral Chömpff and General Doyen received the highest honours and decorations from the President of the French Republic and from the King of Netherlands, and will be forever remembered for their extraordinary presence of spirit, when everything seemed lost, beyond hope.

Map capture from 15 February 1941

 

[Alex Kernel]

Well, at least you are keeping the Germans at bay. They only have so much in the way of manpower against so many Allies.

Manpower has become a serious issue for the Allies, after the battles for Netherlands. As usual, I will present after such prolonged battles an analysis of the new circumstances.

Good luck with the fight for the Netherlands. The German AI is trying it’s hardest.

Thank you! The German AI certainly pulls a few tricks in a competent manner. It could perform even better, but that would surely have turned the tide. I am walking a tight rope most of the time.

I do think you'll be able to hold the Southern Netherlands, the old Rhine (Oude Rijn) between Den Haag and Nijmegen seems like a decent defensive line, though it is quite long all things considered.

Happy to transcend your wildest expectations! ;-). As you were posting these lines, I was writing the history of the event.

If you want to boost your Construction practical to speed up IC production, building Air Bases and Infrastructure takes less time, and gives a good boost to practical. You seem to already be building an Air Base, which will likely shave a few days off the completion date for the IC currently in production. Of course, building IC you're sacrificing production today to have more production tomorrow, so you're basically betting France will hold, at least until the IC in question is operational.

Thanks for the advice on boosting Construction practical. My only chance for the long haul is betting France will hold until the end of the timeline. It makes perfect sense to "sacrifice production today to have more production tomorrow", otherwise France will be condemned to a diminished role later, if not to forfeiting her survival entirely.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Harbinger of Defeat?

By the beginning of April 1941 general fatigue brought the guns to silence along the hotly contested Allied-Axis borders. Time has come for the Allied (and Axis) HQs to reassess the strategic situation, and readapt their strategic plans. What was yesterday valid is today no more. One might not believe it lightly, but there is little reason for celebrations.

The German offensive has been successfully repelled, but the human cost amongst the French, Belgian, and Dutch militaries has been horrendous. France alone has lost over half a million soldier lost in Netherlands only, and the Belgian and Dutch sacrifices might be even higher, given the very low manpower the two smaller allies were left with.

Belgium's reserves - 30 MP

Belgium's Manpower pool numbers barely 30 MP, meaning the Belgian's won't be able anytime soon to resist another substantive German offensive. Should the French and the English retreat, Belgium would have had no chance of an effective defence.

Holland has suffered even higher human losses during their courageous defence, with only 14 Manpower left to immediately replace the missing.

Netherland's reserves 14 MP

With one third of the country under Nazi occupation, the Dutch Manpower replenishment rate is extremely low, way under that of Belgium's.

France's MP reserves have dipped to under 700 by the end of March, while Germany's MP pool has reached almost 1.400 MP. The British escaped this tragic carnage only because their land involvement in the Low Countries is pretty limited.

France's MP reserves - 700

Also, France suffers from a long term population crisis that lowers the long term fighting readiness of the country. (Guys, what do you know about the Population crisis? Can it be surpassed by legit means?).

According to our latest information, Nazi Germany has lost way less men during her Belgian and Dutch offensives, which is widely disseminated in the enemy national media, maybe also as a counterpoint to their failed conquests attempt.

The implication of all this data is, France cannot count in a potential future anti-Nazi offensive on substantive Belgian and Dutch reinforcements. Moreover, stopping a renewed German offensive will fall heavily on French shoulders.

The Allies have achieved Pyrrhic victories in the true sense of the term. How many more can we afford before being undone? This was what the Allied decision-makers were thinking behind the closed doors, especially after another, yet more worrying threat arose in sombre touches at the horizon.

At least two Hard Armour hostile divisions were sighted since mid February at the Belgian and Maginot borders, one WHOLE YEAR before France could even hope to build some! The Allied agents erroneously reported the first German heavy armours will be operational on November 1941. It looks like, though, the first Germany Heavy Armours are operational at least since January 1941, and it is being assumed they were not used in the Low Countries' offensives because the tank crews needed longer to train with the new weapons. What when they will be used in the next offensive? No one has an answer, but for sure everyone already dreads that moment.

The Allies have no answer yet to such a weapon. No time will be lost do develop Heavy Armours as well. This will be a very expensive industrial and research enterprise for France. Until then...

Another unsettling thing is a rising number of Slovak units have been spotted along the frontlines, and once a division engaged along German allies French troops North of Maginot. There is talk Hungary is preparing to send lots of divisions on the Western Front, being grateful to Hitler for receiving one third of Transylvania from Romania by force, as a result of Hitler's Vienna Dictate. Only caution against a Soviet invasion might determine the Nazis to refrain from calling in the Hungarian allies.

 

[Alex Kernel]

Let's indulge in a catharsis moment by admiring the renowned painting of a Belgian artist looking years later on several WWII maps, in the Amsterdam historical archives.


Late Christmas Tree in February 1941

 

[roverS3]

I forgot about the fact that you can block the Afsluitdijk with naval forces. It's really lucky that the Dutch AI did that. If you want to really game the system, just park a single old DD flotilla in the Afsluitdijk, and leave it there indefinitely. No matter how hard they try, the Germans won't get across...

The Zwolle fighting was rather terrible. I do feel like x10 might be a bit too high of a multiplier for the casualties. I haven't looked into this in detail, though, so I might be wrong. How did you determine the appropriate ratio of in-game vs 'real' casualty numbers?

The manpower situation is dire, you might have to give up the Netherlands, and part of Belgium, to shorten the line once their manpower runs out. One wonders whether this ATL will prove to be a re-run of WW1, with France, Belgium, and to a more limited extent Britain, holding the line for years, until the Americans arrive to browbeat the exhausted German war-machine.

The Allies have no answer yet to such a weapon.

Shturmovik's, swarms of Il-2's... This is why you build CAS wings, to specifically target H Arm, and melt the Tigers away. In my Soviet game, my Air Force is very CAS heavy, and while they do struggle to do much against light Infantry, they wreak havoc on the Heavy Panzers. You might also invest in more Tank Destroyers.

Let's indulge in a catharsis moment by admiring the renowned painting of a Belgian artist looking years later on several WWII maps, in the Amsterdam historical archives.

This just warms my heart. It's right up the alley of surrealism and post-war Belgian modern art in general. The fact that it's a February map with a Christmas reference just adds to the artistic quality and surrealist nature of the piece.

 

[Eurasia]

Remember - you can always escape to Africa!

 

[Alex Kernel]

Remember - you can always escape to Africa!

Not so sure about that! What if Churchill destroys my Navy?

 

[Alex Kernel]

I do feel like x10 might be a bit too high of a multiplier for the casualties. I haven't looked into this in detail, though, so I might be wrong. How did you determine the appropriate ratio of in-game vs 'real' casualty numbers?

I debated with myself about the right multiplying number some time ago. The main argument is the MP reserve. If Greater Germany, for example had a MP pool of 1.400 x 1000/MP point = 1.400.000 war able men ready to compensate the war casualties. The same for the Soviet Union in the 1941 scenario, where the reserve pool is 3.332, meaning 3.332.000 able men for mobilisation. It seems to me the multiplied numbers are realistic, maybe even too conservative, given the population of Germany (86.75 million including annexed territories in 1941), USSR (196,7 million in 1941 including annexed territories), France, USA, etc. at the time. Correspondingly, the battle losses can be multiplied by ten for historical realism.

The manpower situation is dire, you might have to give up the Netherlands, and part of Belgium, to shorten the line once their manpower runs out. One wonders whether this ATL will prove to be a re-run of WW1, with France, Belgium, and to a more limited extent Britain, holding the line for years, until the Americans arrive to browbeat the exhausted German war-machine.

I hope not to have to give up anything. Soviets will probably declare war before the Americans will set foot in Europe, supposing France will resist all this time.

 

[Alex Kernel]

War Goes On

Axis and Allies powers reached on separate ways after 5 April the conclusion that the frontline was stuck. As we were happy that much of Belgium and Holland were saved from invasion, the German HQ, took again the initiative. The same day an eerie silence descended over the Western front, Nazi forces surprized everyone by landing in Norway. The invasion of Norway has begun.

Nazi Germany's invasion of Norway on 5 April 1941

Months of conflict followed in Southern Norway. German troops overwhelmed one third of the country, though failed to take the capital city Oslo. In September 1941, after unending defeats, the Norwegian army managed to turn the tide and started to take back national provinces. A German division even seems to risk encirclement in an advanced position. The key element of the Allied defence was that the enemy did not manage to conquer any province with airport, and the modest Norwegian Air Force could safely bomb the invading land units until they had to yield.

Norwegian Frontline on 1 August 1941

Norway asked for Allied military support, but Great Britain was already sending her few divisions in the Low Countries and in defensive positions on own territory to prevent a hostile landing.

France did not dare to pull any forces from the Western front, especially since sporadic German attacks here and there continuously reminded us of the danger of invasion. The extra length of the Low Countries frontline was already outstretching the French military. The whole national production was spent first on infantry divisions to fill the elongated frontline, and provide a minimum of reserves, second on increasing the industrial capacity (10 IC at every given time), third on building up a full corps of medium armours, and lastly on creating a new Interceptors Group.

Europe on 1 August 1941

One unsettling discovery from mid February 1941 still worries the Allied HQs. In the heat of aerial battles, the 9nth French Fighter Group identified in the vicinity of Kassel a Nazi Rocket Test Site. The rocket technology was not yet integrated in the world's militaries, despite some previous research in France, the US, UK, and the Soviet Union. The legitimate question is why would the German invest so much money in an unproven technology? The French agents have reported back in the late 1920 that the Weimar Republic was researching Rocket technology as a long range artillery weapon, since classical artillery was forbidden under the Versailles Treaty. How far is their research and what are they aiming with it? Nobody knows for sure, yet.

By August 1941 it was evident that France's plans for Heavy Armour divisions were surpassing her possibilities. Military analysts suggested instead to build 2 or 3 CAS air groups against the enemy heavy armours. The costs of doctrines for all sorts of Air wings, infantry, and armours plus civil and industrial research needs were simply not leaving much for so many armament directions. The only other option was to scrap the Light Tanks research and production altogether and to replace it with Heavy Tanks research and production. However, HARM is slow, needs perfect air protection, is less effective on difficult terrain, and thus impossible to use on large scale for large encirclement operations. In addition, they use up an enormous quantity of supplies and fuel, straining the transport infrastructure needed by all other troops.

On the diplomatic front not much changed. Churchill did his utmost to attract the US in the Allied camp, but isolationism is further prevalent. The Soviet-Nazi negotiations for a full alliance have not yielded palpable results, and Italy stays in expectative. France can only resist and wait for a serious change in international politics.

P.S. I reached the time of play of November 2020. From this point history is unknown to me as well. I will continue to play until something significant happens, than make a pause to tell you the story. Once events turn heated, I will report monthly.

 

[Alex Kernel]

This just warms my heart. It's right up the alley of surrealism and post-war Belgian modern art in general. The fact that it's a February map with a Christmas reference just adds to the artistic quality and surrealist nature of the piece.

The artist was quoted saying "My painting illustrates how the human mind looks for patterns in a world, where there are none".

PS: In any case, don't worry. The renowned artist, whose name I am sure everyone recognizes when seeing the surrealist painting - thus needing no further introduction - , has given me exclusive reproduction rights on the Paradox Forum.

Those of you appreciating his works of art are kindly invited to visit his gallery in Versailles, as soon as the Pandemics will be defeated, hopefully until autumn 2021. This particular painting is unfortunately not exhibited there because it is in a private collection. Rumours circle that the painting will be auctioned by the Christie's House on 22 June 2021 for a starting price of 1 million € (for those interested). I would buy it myself, but the price is a tad too high for my meager budget.

 

[Alex Kernel]

On the Industrial Policy

Before moving into the unknown, it makes sense to mention a few things about the industrial policy. France increased her IC from 197 at 01.02.1941 to 213 at 01.08.1941 due to improving industrial technologies and 10 IC paralel production, whereby the the cost of 1 IC has dropped to 3,5, and the time has also been shortened due to production practical. A series of indispensable anti-air radars are also bound to be produced this year. The French IC includes 21 British Lend-Lease.

By comparison, Nazi Germany hasa production of 268 IC to which one may add superior practical, double Leadership (20 to 40) and better officers. The USSR has not ramped up her laws to maximum war production yet, but when will do that her IC will jump to well over 350.

The French industrial plan is to increase IC production to 15 in order to become more competitive by 1942, when an anti-Nazi offensive operation is intended, irrespective if Germany will be fighting on two fronts or not. Should the US join the frame, a new Lend-Lease will be requested as well.

Does anyone has any idea how to eliminate the Demographic Crisis affecting French recruitment rate by 30% without cheating that is?

 

[roverS3]

Looks like the Jerries only managed to land 3 divisions in Norway. The Norwegian Army might well take care of this on it's own. Of course, if the Germans ship in more reinforcements, or they get Swedish transit rights, the Norse might still be doomed. Anything the Marine Nationale can do to make sure the Germans don't land reinforcements? That might be more valuable than shipping a corps of Infantry you can hardly spare.

As for the manpower situation. Agriculture and combat medicine should be absolute research priorities, they should be, at least, kept up to date. Additionally, a shift to less manpower-intensive units is necessary. In this regard more planes are a great move, H Arm is a good move, and Mil/Gar are a bad move in general. Strengthening existing units with support brigades is also better than fielding more units on such a tightly packed front. (not to mention that support brigades cost a lot less manpower than front line ones.) How long until you get superior firepower? Make sure your occupation policy for Spain and Portugal is on Collaboration Government (only applicable if Spain is govt in exile). Of course this comes at a cost in IC and resources, but when you hit a point where you can't spend the IC on anything because the MP has run out, you'll be wishing you went for leadership and MP instead. Also look at ministers, if you have a 'School of Mass Combat' Chief of Staff, you get more MP (and a reduced theoretical decay on human wave doctrines.) Also make sure you hang on to a 'Black Soil' province as long as you can, that alone gives you a 10% boost.
Finally, a somewhat gamey strategy would be to find another country you can knock out with minimal casualties. Ireland perhaps, 2 VP's on the coast and likely a tiny army, but only 4 MP. Brazil could work, it's a bit more risky, but with 35 base manpower (almost as much as Spain and Portugal combined) it's a juicy target, and all the VP locations are on the coast, except for one. For the latter endeavour, I'd suggest building a substantial Air Base in French Guyana first, place a corps in French Guyana and some Tactical bombers, and charge along the coast until resistance is met, then bring in another corps with your larger navy, and drop it behind their lines to grab the other VP locations. Make sure you have a spare Air Base ready, so you can bomb them into oblivion. All their Air Bases are in the South, Rio, Sao Paulo, and Porto Alegre should be the first targets of a Southern landing force. If they haven't mobilised yet, strike fast, and just go for all the VP's with naval invasions before they manage to do so. Of course, the question is whether it'll be worth it, as you only get 45% of the manpower of the occupied territory, and will need to leave behind some occupation force to deal with insurrections.
You could also pick off a bunch of smaller countries, but that would likely increase your threat too much and push other nations into the Axis. Also watch out for guarantees. The US guarantees the independence of all of middle America, except for Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. Those can be taken with a single corps and some transports. Maybe Siam/Thailand, where you can likely knock them out with a corps plus one or two Divisions too, by landing in Nakhon si Thammarat first, rushing towards Chaiya, and luring their army away from Bangkok and Phet Buri. If you're fast enough they won't have the time to reach any of your VP's in French Indochina.

For the Industry, make sure you keep Industrial Efficiency, Industrial Production, and Supply Production up to date. In the long term France has access to more resources than Germany. The US, and the UK to a lesser extent, are flush with resources. You can buy from them in bulk, likely at good prices, so you can grow your industry much more than Germany, especially a Germany that stops trading with the Soviet Union. If you need steel, I recommend buying as much as possible from Sweden, as that will reduce the amount the Germans can get. Strategic bombing and Logistical bombing are also good tools to do economic damage. The latter has the advantage of also cutting off supplies for enemy troops, something that can be very handy when you're trying to push back a breakthrough. Even one or two wings of license-built Str will wreak havoc on enemy infrastructure and stockpiles. Also check periodically if you have a chance to get lend lease from the US, and once the Soviets get attacked ask them for Lend Lease too.

In any case, you're holding on well, I'm sure you'll figure something out.

 

[Bullfilter]

That’s a long period now of stalemate in the West - which is good. The big ‘what ifs’ for France now are in the hands of others: will the UK hand over EFs? Will Japan attack soon in the Far East? Will the US do anything much on the ground, if or when they enter the war or will it be mainly lend-lease support? But the big one is the USSR, and when it might be attacked by or attack the Germans. Until then, with the line holding, France will be looking at force structures to achieve the breakthrough once the Germans are distracted by the Soviets. Which could take quite a while. But I think French manpower is in a very strong position, at least.