[Meta] The "8th" Major Nation - The Cordon Sanitaire

[Bane5]

Some of this info is similar to another thread, but I'm focused on the "meta" and "strategy" of such a faction. With Romania receiving some historical attention in the upcoming DLC, an interesting implication arises.

Background:

For those who are not aware, in the interwar years, Poland and Romania signed a defensive alliance called the "Cordon Sanitaire" in the early 1920s aimed at containing the Soviet Union. In 1927, they expanded this alliance to include any aggressor. This alliance was still active even as Germany invaded Poland in 1939; however, Poland did not call Romania into the war hoping to use its ports to ferry allied supplies through safely while Polish troops held out in a pocket in Southeastern Poland-- the "Romanian Bridgehead Strategy". This contingency plan though was ruined when the Soviet Union also declared war on Poland.

Crown Prince Michael of Romania with Polish Foreign Minister Józef Beck in Warsaw, 24 May 1937

Though the exact details are uncertain, if Paradox goes the historical route, there is a good chance that Poland and Romania could start "allied" with non-aggression pacts and guarantees on each other by default in the 1936 bookmark.

Starting Capabilities:

If this happens, in the early game, the "Cordon Sanitaire" is effectively a pseudo-major. The combined industrial capability of Poland and Romania is in terms of factory count (49)[16M, 3D, 30C]. This is the exact same number as France (50)[6M, 8D, 36C] or Italy (50)[19M, 11D, 20C], less of it being tied in dockyards.

More importantly, Poland starts with 40 divisions and Romania starts with 31. This gives the Cordon Sanitaire a whopping 71 divisions at start to bear on any potential attacker. For comparison, Germany starts with 30 divisions. Italy starts with 39 though their templates are smaller with 6x inf. Only the Soviet Union could initially keep them in check solo early on, but Trotsky and the Great purge always linger in the shadow.

Political Potential:

As it stands, the Sanitaire Cordon is a very scary force to be reckoned with early game. With the very powerful Polish Revanchism early focus and quickness for which Romania can upgrade it into a full faction, the CS can be quite an early game bully. One should note very conveniently that the timing for the two foci happens to synchronize just perfectly. Revanchism's quicker war goal speed will let you out-race axis powers if they also decide to DOW in response if they notice your war goals. Romania itself also appears to have many quick foci to secure a few balkan countries assuming no other special requirements. Expansion in two directions at once is a certainly possible.

Military Strategies:

Rapid military expansion through conquest is essential. Although the CS' starting military is strong on paper, with time, the more powerful majors will very quickly outpace you otherwise. On a tactical level though, several options are available. Here are just some:

• Mechanized Offensive

This duo has quite the potential for mechanization. Romania has oil and Poland has enough steel to provide for Romania's early military factories. Cross-trading has obvious benefits.

Poland has the unique ability to rush Mechanization tech by late 1936 thanks to their 75% motorized research time focus. Since 20 mil experience comes on the way to get revanchism, you can easily pump out many cheap hybrid cavalry-mechanized divisions that have an armor rating greater than 4 which can't be pierced by weapons 1 or greater than 5 which can't be pierced by weapons 2 or artillery.

A unique ability that Poland has is minister stacking. A cavalry division benefits from infantry advisers as well in addition to cavalry. If the template counts as cavalry-dominant, having a inf adviser and cav adviser creates a +20/+25% combat bonus. Only Poland and some other 1 state minors have both an infantry adviser and a cavalry adviser. Given mech's high base base defensive stat to multiply from, you suddenly have the basis for a very powerful division. Toss in some additional multiplicative stacking from decryption advantage and some AA to prevent an air superiority malus from eroding your high defensive stat. In the meantime, Romania has the starting techs, template, and resources to create tanks readily.

• Defensive Contingency

Some people knock the Polish tree for being "weaker" in industry than the generic tree but it does have some advantageous quirks that I think some should appreciate more. Should an early war declaration be imminent by the SU, a greater-axis, or a Moscow-Berlin Axis, building forts quickly is in order. If you're willing to sacrifice the 4th research slot early on, the quick availability of 2x industry research bonuses right away allows a player to research construction 3 by early 1937. Going something like

Strengthen_State -> Industry_Research_Tech_Team -> 4_year_plan -> Defensive focus -> civ_factory_focus -> Central_Ind_Region -> civ_factory_focus -> other_foci-> Construction_focus

Including free trade, this allows you quickly accumulate a 35% then 45%, then 55%, then 65% and finally 85% construction bonus in a very short order to produce forts at an alarming rate. Poland and Romania have many rivers and the area between the two is very mountainous, creating many opportunities to form tough pockets of resistance that can hold indefinitely through narrow combat width and force rotation micro. Romania's starting research in tanks and military focuses allow for high quality tank destroyers to deal with any potential armored spearhead without too much investment.

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As it stands, some interesting co-op play-through and multiplayer game potential is there.

Thoughts?

 

[TK-XD-M8]

[QUOTE="Bane5, post: 22669907, member: 554672"
Thoughts?[/QUOTE]

Cordon Sanitaire Stronk

 

[Telenil]

I don't known enough about the game to comment on the substance, but it was an interesting read! I hadn't realized that Romanian tank potential.

For the anecdote, "cordon sanitaire" is a French phrase that more or less means "medical line", one you would put around an area under quarantine. It refered to the post-WW1 states at the western Soviet border, from Estonia to Romania, considered by the French as a buffer zone between the Soviet Union and Western Europe.

 

[PanzerMan7]

By George you might be on to something!!

 

[Bane5]

Another quick note is that, in co-op or multiplayer, by focusing on different research techs you have about 4 or just under 5 effective starting tech slots. There is some overlap with obvious infantry and doctrine researches, but one nation could solely handle airforce while the other focuses on tanks for example. The tech sharing continuous focus also kicks in with the new continuous focuses in the previous DLC.

Both nations can reach 50 factories by mid or late 1939 if they beeline towards it with an optimized industry plan--conferring individual major power status and letting Poland get its 5th research slot.

 

[Zwirbaum]

Cavalry + Infantry combo is available to more countries and not only one state countries -
Full list of it:
-Bulgaria
-Estonia
-Hungary
-Italy (Both Specialists level for only +10%/+15% total boost)
-Nepal
-Netherlands
-Poland
-Tibet

What is more Romania have access to Special Forces + Infantry combo stacking for +25%/+30% to any divisions that count as Special Forces (Mountaineers/Marines/Paratroopers) which is far more powerful IMO than Cav+Inf combo.

 

[cat013]

however, Poland did not call Romania into the war hoping to use its ports to ferry allied supplies through safely while Polish troops held out in a pocket in Southeastern Poland-- the "Romanian Bridgehead Strategy". This contingency plan though was ruined when the Soviet Union also declared war on Poland.

This had more to do with Romanian refusal to violate its neutrality (all this "bridgeheading" is expressly forbidden by the Hague 1907) on behalf of Poland. You seem to be massively overestimating the strength of actual political ties between the two countries in the late 1930's. Yes, a lot had changed since 1927.

 

[Bane5]

This had more to do with Romanian refusal to violate its neutrality (all this "bridgeheading" is expressly forbidden by the Hague 1907) on behalf of Poland. You seem to be massively overestimating the strength of actual political ties between the two countries in the late 1930's. Yes, a lot had changed since 1927.

I'm curious what sources lead you to this conclusion.

From what I've read the treaty was last formally re-affirmed in 1931. The conservative wing of Pilsudski's BBWR party actively lobbied in the mid 1930s for a personal Union with Romania under Prince Nicholas, though such plans never progressed far officially. More relevantly though, with the partitioning of Czechoslavakia both countries offered each other their reassurances--effectively an informal affirmation of their ties (the basis for the focus in the Romanian tree). Romania was alarmed at Hungary's annexation of Carpathian Ruthenia. At this time, Poland specifically stated that any attempt by Hungary to press claims on Romania would lead to war (source: Romanian diplomat Franasovici's diaries).

As for the Romanian Bridgehead, while the Hague convention specifically did prohibit this practice, the Polish government made these plans in advance anyways. Operation Peking for example was drafted and executed in advance and reluctantly approved by Marshal Rydz-Smigly for the evacuation of Poland's Navy with the intent to assist in ferrying supplies from allied ports to Constanta in Romania. Poland also created many ammo dumps and supply areas on the Romanian Bridgehead which were intended to supply units regrouping from an initial attack. When the order was given, 20 divisions still combat cohesive though reduced in strength, were planning or making their way to Southeastern Poland. Even at this time in the midst of the German invasion, Polish command was still at the time confident they could hold onto a pocket of rough terrain throughout the winter and until French and British aid arrived. With the SU's invasion, however, only 120,000 troops managed to cross the Romanian border to fight on.

Poland expected swift British and French aid and thought it would be more useful not to call in Romania. One of the express demands that Poland made to release Romania from their treaty obligations was that access be given for Polish delegations and the opening of their ports.

 

[Dalwin]

Note that the initial comment was that this was a mutual defense pact and not a full alliance. Jumping from there to early offensives into Russia is a logical break that I think the game system is going to cause to be a stumbling block.

If the devs give you a simple NF that turns it into a full alliance, and if you can run that early enough, and if you can change ideology of both countries to one that is allowed unprovoked aggression, then maybe you can launch an offensive into Russia. I see this as only even potentially viable in SP games.

In MP I think their only real hope would be to convince Germany that they can act as an eastern shield and hope in that way to keep Poland's head off the chopping block.

I have no doubt that some people will have fun with these scenarios but I do not anticipate it altering the meta in any significant way.

 

[cat013]

I'm curious what sources lead you to this conclusion.

There is a book aptly called "Romanian policy towards Germany, 1936-40" by one R. Haynes. Two weeks before the war Romanian government secretly assured Germany that it would maintain "strict" neutrality in case of the war, and issued public formal declaration to the same effect on September, 6th.

And if you look closely into the tripartite negotiation (about possible British-French-Soviet alliance) in august 1939, you come to the inevitable conclusion that the Polish government itself did not have any bridgeheading plans either at that moment (few days before the war). So it looks more like an after the fact justification than a conscious strategy.

 

[Bane5]

In MP I think their only real hope would be to convince Germany that they can act as an eastern shield and hope in that way to keep Poland's head off the chopping block.

Just from the way most MP games go, the CS will probably just get absorbed into the axis or Comintern most of the time since without house rules, most players tend to pile into 1 faction.