Maximizing Trade Good Value for Fun and profit

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naggy

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Step 1: Do this stuff.
Step 2: Profit!

In EUIII In Nomine and Heir to the Throne, trade good prices are determined by a series of modifiers that affect Supply and Demand.

Supply is calculated individually for each province that produces the good.
Demand is calculated individually for all provinces in the world.

When supply > demand, prices fall. Vice versa. Simple.

I'm not going to list all of the effects, but in general, looting, occupation, and blockades reduce supply significantly. Significant ones will be bolded.

Grain:
Supply is affected by: Free Subjects 1+ (-50%), Free Trade 1+ (-80%), a unit standing in the province (-90%).
Demand is affected by: Stability 2+ (+10%), war (+10%).

One of many trade goods where being Free Trade is beneficial. If you control most of the grain in the world, parking 1 infantry in each grain province will make you rich.

Wine:
Demand: 2+ RR (+10%), Refinery (+100%), province religion = muslim (0 demand), Stability 2+ (+10%)

Going Muslim is bad for winesellers.

Wool:
Supply: Aristocracy 2+ (+50%)
Demand: Shipyards and Textile Manus (+20%), cloth in province (+100%), being overseas (-20%), and Trade is less than 10% total income (-50%)

Cloth:
Supply: Plutocracy 1+ (+50%)
Demand: Shipyard, Textile Manu, and Regimental Camp (+20%), looting (-90%), and Trade is less than 10% total income (-50%)

Nothin' real major for either of these.

Fish:
Supply: Land 1+ (-50%)
Demand: Catholic province (+20%), owning no ports (-90%)

Being Catholic helps here. So does making sure there are no portless major powers. Ironically, high land makes fish more valuable.

Fur:
Demand: Workshop (+10%), war (-80%), Revolutionary Republic govt (-90%), Quality 4+ (+200%)

Apparently, this is mocking France invading Russia in the winter. :) High quality is really the main thing here, since you should be building workshops anyway.

Salt:
Demand: Stab 2+, Regimental Camp, Fish (+10%), Serfdom 1+ (-50%).

Serfs just don't really use much salt.

Naval Supplies:
Demand: Naval Manu or Shipyard (+10%), Land 1+ (-90%), Admiralty (+400%), capital when you have 20 big ships and are at war (+1900%), capital when you have 50 big ships and are at war (+900%)

Being on the naval end of the slider is the most important. The big percentages look really big, until you realize they only apply to your capital.

Copper:
Supply: Weapons manu (+100%), Free Subjects 1+ (+10%)
Demand: Not Eastern/Western (-90%), own artillery (+10%), Land Tech 30 (+10%), peace (-50%), Regimental Camp (+5%), Weapons Manu (+20%)

If you own Iron provinces, do not build weapons manus in your copper provinces, or you'll increase supply and thus reduce price. If you have a couple copper provinces, as soon as you can build artillery, consider building one, even if you aren't going to use it. Finally, wipe out those Muslim/Indian/Chinese/African/New World nations. It's for the economy.

Iron:

Demand: Not Eastern/Western (-90%), own 20 infantry(+10%), Land Tech 30 (+10%), peace (-50%), Regimental Camp (+5%), Weapons Manu (+20%), Land 1+ (+10 %)

Wipe out those Muslim/Indian/Chinese/African/New World nations. Also, get 20 infantry (which you'll probably do anyway in HTTT, but maybe not in IN).

Slaves:
Supply: Abolish Slavery Act (0%)
Demand: Cotton, Tobacco, Sugar, Coffee provinces (+900%), everything else (0%), Abolish Slavery Act (0%), capital is overseas from slave-using provinces (+100%)

Essentially, Slaves are worthless until the New World is heavily colonized. Even then, with a base price of 5, almost everything else in the game is better. Maybe if you own 1 slave province, every slave-using province, and everyone else has abolished slavery and wiped out the rest of the slave-producing provinces, but that's kinda far-fetched. Thus, pass the Abolish Slavery act ASAP so your slave provinces will produce something better.

Ivory, Tea, Chinaware, Spices, Coffee, Cotton, Sugar, Tobacco
Demand: No Marketplace (-80%), Customs House (+50%), Constable (+50%), Tax Assessor (+50%), Mercantilism 2+ (-50%), Gold income % >10% (+10%), War (-10%), 2+ Embargos (-10%), RR 2+ (-50%), 20+ Prestige (+10%), Textile Manu (+200%, cotton only), Refinery (+200%, sugar only)

Colonial goods are nearly worthless before advanced nations drop marketplaces like crazy, and really take off once everyone starts putting down the rest of the buildings. Mercantilism nerfs colonial goods.
 

The Zealot

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This is an incredibly useful thread, but unfortunately you said far too little about what the player should do.

That tip about a unit in a Grain province is great, but what do you mean about Naval Supplies? Or Salt? What should I be doing exactly?

Your step 1 says "do this stuff", but I'm sure you can do better in telling us what stuff we should be doing.

Once you develop a more thorough step-by-step manual, this is great info naggy!
icon14.gif
 

Lysander13

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Great stuff naggy...
Thanks for the info. One of the main reasons i enjoy reading your AAR's is because every few installments you include a post somewhat like this; where you break things down nicely & give great info. Hell, seems to me you may have mentioned some of these in your older AAR's......
 

unmerged(193306)

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Great job, naggy!

...except that I was going to use that thread title for a thread I was planning on event manipulation, but oh well :D
 

HNT

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Step 1: Do this stuff.
Step 2: Profit!

In EUIII In Nomine and Heir to the Throne, trade good prices are determined by a series of modifiers that affect Supply and Demand.

Supply is calculated individually for each province that produces the good.
Demand is calculated individually for all provinces in the world.

When supply > demand, prices fall. Vice versa. Simple.

I'm not going to list all of the effects, but in general, looting, occupation, and blockades reduce supply significantly. Significant ones will be bolded.

Grain:
Supply is affected by: Free Subjects 1+ (-50%), Free Trade 1+ (-80%), a unit standing in the province (-90%).
Demand is affected by: Stability 2+ (+10%), war (+10%).

One of many trade goods where being Free Trade is beneficial. If you control most of the grain in the world, parking 1 infantry in each grain province will make you rich.

Very interesting thread. :) I never thought about these issues before. I wanna check if I get your point right.

a) I move my serfdom-free subject slider from 0 to +1; I assume nothing happens when moving from +1 to +2 !?
b) supply of grain from my grain producing provinces decrease by 50%.
c) the number of grain units, produced in my provinces decreases by 50%; in other words I equal supply to the number of units produced.
d) my production income decreases unless the price increase amounts to 50%
e) how do I profit? :wacko:
Thx for further clarifications. :D
 

unmerged(193306)

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Some extra details for the thread that might help people...

This is from the wiki:

TradeGoodPrice = BasePrice * (2.25-TradeGoodSupply) * TradeGoodDemand

(Supply and Demand are capped at 200%.)

This is some new stuff:

TradeGoodSupply = Province1UnitsProduced*(1+Province1SupplyMods) + Province2UnitsProduced*(1+Province2SupplyMods) + ... ProvinceNUnitsProduced*(1+ProvinceNSupplyMods)

(that is, every province in the world that produces that good, it takes the units produced and multiplies them by the modifiers presented by naggy above and then adds it all together and makes this the Supply %)

The TradeGoodDemand is a bit more complicated. It's related to the supply of all the other trade goods (actually, it's even related to the supply of the trade good itself! which is a bit odd I think). I need to put some more time into this one :)

OK, so the point is -- the populations worldwide are rising over time, so the UnitsProduced are all rising over time. So the only things the player can really control are:

1) the population of their provinces -> higher UnitsProduced -> higher Supply
2) price modifiers affecting their provinces (as naggy listed above & is in the tooltip info when you hover over the "price" in the Province Window)
3) the supply worldwide by colonizing new provinces of that trade good type
 

HNT

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Some extra details for the thread that might help people...

This is from the wiki:

TradeGoodPrice = BasePrice * (2.25-TradeGoodSupply) * TradeGoodDemand

(Supply and Demand are capped at 200%.)

This is some new stuff:

TradeGoodSupply = Province1UnitsProduced*(1+Province1SupplyMods) + Province2UnitsProduced*(1+Province2SupplyMods) + ... ProvinceNUnitsProduced*(1+ProvinceNSupplyMods)

(that is, every province in the world that produces that good, it takes the units produced and multiplies them by the modifiers presented by naggy above and then adds it all together and makes this the Supply %)

Grain:
Supply is affected by: Free Subjects 1+ (-50%), Free Trade 1+ (-80%), a unit standing in the province (-90%).
Demand is affected by: Stability 2+ (+10%), war (+10%).

One of many trade goods where being Free Trade is beneficial. If you control most of the grain in the world, parking 1 infantry in each grain province will make you rich.

OK, I try once more to get the point in the grain example. Assume that:
1) my free subject slider is at +1;
2) my free trade slider is at +1;
3) I've troops in every grain producing province.
What is the value of the Supply modifier for my grain producing provinces? Do they add up to -220% :wacko:.
 

unmerged(193306)

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OK, I try once more to get the point in the grain example. Assume that:
1) my free subject slider is at +1;
2) my free trade slider is at +1;
3) I've troops in every grain producing province.
What is the value of the Supply modifier for my grain producing provinces? Do they add up to -220% :wacko:.

[erased erroneous advice for future thread-viewers; see my next post for details.]
 
Last edited:

unmerged(157031)

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I had no idea that trade in the NW could be boosted by buildings so much! Now I finally have something to spend my pile of cash on!
 

naggy

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This is an incredibly useful thread, but unfortunately you said far too little about what the player should do.

That tip about a unit in a Grain province is great, but what do you mean about Naval Supplies? Or Salt? What should I be doing exactly?

Your step 1 says "do this stuff", but I'm sure you can do better in telling us what stuff we should be doing.

Once you develop a more thorough step-by-step manual, this is great info naggy!
icon14.gif

For Naval Supplies, build an Admiralty and own 50 big ships. I didn't bold these, since these effects are small (Capital only compared to the world), and you certainly shouldn't chose to build an Admiralty solely to boost Naval Supplies prices a smidgeon. Thus, the largest useful change you can make is to move your slider towards Land, which halves the supply. Again - you want to choose how to move your land/naval slider for other reasons.

For Salt, just move your slider to have at least Free Subjects 1, and you'll avoid the 50% demand penalty for serfdom. Again - slider moves should not be made based on prices (except perhaps Mercantilism/Free Trade).

I bolded major effects, but I only called out actions worth making solely for the point of affecting supply/demand. I also didn't mention many of the effects that are static and cannot be directly affected by the player. Like many things in EU3, many options have trickle-down effects that players shouldn't make solely based on 1 effect.
 

ctlaltdefeat

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Thanks, nice info :). Just a couple of days ago I noticed that building all those buildings raises prices in the New World. I have a question though: does raising supply mean actually mean that you're creating more units (i.e in a grain province I have 2.0 grain units being made. Once I move a military unit there, does it start creating 0.2?) Or is it like a "hidden" thing?
 

naggy

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Thanks, nice info :). Just a couple of days ago I noticed that building all those buildings raises prices in the New World. I have a question though: does raising supply mean actually mean that you're creating more units (i.e in a grain province I have 2.0 grain units being made. Once I move a military unit there, does it start creating 0.2?) Or is it like a "hidden" thing?

No. The supply/demand numbers only regulate price, not the amount produced. Always seek to raise demand and lower supply, all other things being equal.
 

HNT

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Step 1: Do this stuff.
Step 2: Profit!

In EUIII In Nomine and Heir to the Throne, trade good prices are determined by a series of modifiers that affect Supply and Demand.

Supply is calculated individually for each province that produces the good.
Demand is calculated individually for all provinces in the world.

When supply > demand, prices fall. Vice versa. Simple.

I'm not going to list all of the effects, but in general, looting, occupation, and blockades reduce supply significantly. Significant ones will be bolded.

Grain:
Supply is affected by: Free Subjects 1+ (-50%), Free Trade 1+ (-80%), a unit standing in the province (-90%).
Demand is affected by: Stability 2+ (+10%), war (+10%).

One of many trade goods where being Free Trade is beneficial. If you control most of the grain in the world, parking 1 infantry in each grain province will make you rich.

Wine:
Demand: 2+ RR (+10%), Refinery (+100%), province religion = muslim (0 demand), Stability 2+ (+10%)

Going Muslim is bad for winesellers.

Wool:
Supply: Aristocracy 2+ (+50%)
Demand: Shipyards and Textile Manus (+20%), cloth in province (+100%), being overseas (-20%), and Trade is less than 10% total income (-50%)

Cloth:
Supply: Plutocracy 1+ (+50%)
Demand: Shipyard, Textile Manu, and Regimental Camp (+20%), looting (-90%), and Trade is less than 10% total income (-50%)

Nothin' real major for either of these.

Fish:
Supply: Land 1+ (-50%)
Demand: Catholic province (+20%), owning no ports (-90%)

Being Catholic helps here. So does making sure there are no portless major powers. Ironically, high land makes fish more valuable.

Fur:
Demand: Workshop (+10%), war (-80%), Revolutionary Republic govt (-90%), Quality 4+ (+200%)

Apparently, this is mocking France invading Russia in the winter. :) High quality is really the main thing here, since you should be building workshops anyway.

Salt:
Demand: Stab 2+, Regimental Camp, Fish (+10%), Serfdom 1+ (-50%).

Serfs just don't really use much salt.

Naval Supplies:
Demand: Naval Manu or Shipyard (+10%), Land 1+ (-90%), Admiralty (+400%), capital when you have 20 big ships and are at war (+1900%), capital when you have 50 big ships and are at war (+900%)

Being on the naval end of the slider is the most important. The big percentages look really big, until you realize they only apply to your capital.

Copper:
Supply: Weapons manu (+100%), Free Subjects 1+ (+10%)
Demand: Not Eastern/Western (-90%), own artillery (+10%), Land Tech 30 (+10%), peace (-50%), Regimental Camp (+5%), Weapons Manu (+20%)

If you own Iron provinces, do not build weapons manus in your copper provinces, or you'll increase supply and thus reduce price. If you have a couple copper provinces, as soon as you can build artillery, consider building one, even if you aren't going to use it. Finally, wipe out those Muslim/Indian/Chinese/African/New World nations. It's for the economy.

Iron:

Demand: Not Eastern/Western (-90%), own 20 infantry(+10%), Land Tech 30 (+10%), peace (-50%), Regimental Camp (+5%), Weapons Manu (+20%), Land 1+ (+10 %)

Wipe out those Muslim/Indian/Chinese/African/New World nations. Also, get 20 infantry (which you'll probably do anyway in HTTT, but maybe not in IN).

Slaves:
Supply: Abolish Slavery Act (0%)
Demand: Cotton, Tobacco, Sugar, Coffee provinces (+900%), everything else (0%), Abolish Slavery Act (0%), capital is overseas from slave-using provinces (+100%)

Essentially, Slaves are worthless until the New World is heavily colonized. Even then, with a base price of 5, almost everything else in the game is better. Maybe if you own 1 slave province, every slave-using province, and everyone else has abolished slavery and wiped out the rest of the slave-producing provinces, but that's kinda far-fetched. Thus, pass the Abolish Slavery act ASAP so your slave provinces will produce something better.

Ivory, Tea, Chinaware, Spices, Coffee, Cotton, Sugar, Tobacco
Demand: No Marketplace (-80%), Customs House (+50%), Constable (+50%), Tax Assessor (+50%), Mercantilism 2+ (-50%), Gold income % >10% (+10%), War (-10%), 2+ Embargos (-10%), RR 2+ (-50%), 20+ Prestige (+10%), Textile Manu (+200%, cotton only), Refinery (+200%, sugar only)

Colonial goods are nearly worthless before advanced nations drop marketplaces like crazy, and really take off once everyone starts putting down the rest of the buildings. Mercantilism nerfs colonial goods.

I'm a bit curious: how did you obtain this information. Perhaps going meticulously through game-files? Cheers :)
 

unmerged(176171)

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\common\prices.txt appears to have this info. Though not sure if this is the latest info, or it's been changed in beta patch?
 

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The WWM mod has implemented this and created evolving goods.


tradegoodtree.jpg
 

unmerged(193306)

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OK, I figured out how 'Demand' works.

It's based entirely on... SUPPLY! Or, rather, how many trade good units are being produced. Man that's silly. :)

It's a very circular affair:

TradeGoodDemand = .5*(Province1Units*DemandMod1*DemandMod2*...*DemandModN + Province2Units*DemandMod1*DemandMod2*...*DemandModN + ... etc.)

Basically, the Demand for a particular trade good is one-half the sum of all the demand-modified units produced by EVERY occupied province in the world. The "modified units" are the UnitsProduced*DemandMod1*DemandMod2...(what naggy listed above). Note that the "type" of unit produced in the province doesn't matter at all: Sugar units give as much benefit to the global demand for Fur as Coffee units! Even Slave units are only unaffected by non-New World trade goods because there's a Demand modifier that gives 0% if you aren't those goods; effectively canceling out the effect of every other province in the world.

Also: the modifiers are MULTIPLICATIVE. This is very different than how other income-related modifiers in the game work! That is to say, modifiers here work like they do for MTTH in events: if you score a 1.1 & 1.5 modifier to demand in some province, you'd get ProvinceUnits*1.1*1.5 towards global demand!

[NOTE: this means I was very wrong in my advice above that the numbers HNT gave yielded a _decrease_ to his global supply contribution. You can't ever get a decrease, you can just get 0 (no increase). Sorry HNT!]

This also means that the tooltip in the Province Window is a little misleading. This, because if you produce 2 cloth in a province, you can affect the demands of every other trade good with modifiers by hitting the modifiers in that province for those goods. BUT--those modifiers are missing from the tooltip... all you see are the modifiers for demand in cloth, but everything else is still in play.

Pretty counter-intuitive setup really.
 
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One specific thing I found while writing (and testing) the list for the wiki was that you should not build weapon manufactories in copper provinces. The loss of income from higher supply outweights the loss of the +12 production income. . So you are better off using the money on a weapon manufactory in a steel province.

edit: which Naggy pointed out in the first post..
 
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knul

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No. The supply/demand numbers only regulate price, not the amount produced. Always seek to raise demand and lower supply, all other things being equal.
So "supply" isn't really supply, then? Confusing.

Honestly, unless your nation spans a considerable part of the globe, there is little you can do to manipulate prices (besides the grain thing, that sounds like it has impact). What the data really shows is that in particular markets and to a lesser extent custom houses, constables and tax assesors make the New World / Far East trade boom. As most European countries are building those, the prices of colonial goods will rise.