Inspired by a game playing Tibet, I've been looking at the concept of manpower as implemented in EU2. Since I couldn't find a FAQ on this subject, I decided to set up a series of experiments involving save-game mutilation to solve the mystery of how the various factors interface. I ended up with a rather elegant equation that appeals to the mathematician in me, and decided to spread the gospel 
I am not sure the following is complete (probably not) or indeed error-free (yeah, right), and, God knows, there may be important exceptions to my findings, but if so I am confident some of you friendly readers will inform me. (Especially regarding subsection 1.1, should my surmise be wrong)
EDIT: it was
Index:
1 Province manpower factors
2 Province manpower equation
3 Conclusions
4 Total manpower
5 Manpower myths laid to rest
6 Province manpower tables
Enjoy,
Peter Ebbesen.
1 Province manpower factors
First let us consider the manpower of individual provinces. This figure can easily be obtained by reading the ledger (13:Taxation & Production Breakdown and 31:Non-Colonial Provinces), though all figures are rounded up to one decimal precision. Given the findings below (that the manpower fraction is always 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, or 0) this means that the ledger will always read a whole number plus a decimal which is one of {0, 3, 5, 8}, such as 1.3, 0.5, 2.8 and so on and so forth.
1.1 Capital location
The provinces in which you can potentially receive manpower is based on the location of your capital. Core provinces have no influence on this (tested).
It has often been suggested that it is the location of the capital on a specific continent that defines, which provinces can give manpower. This has occasioned many interesting definitions of continents to fit observed facts, with varying degrees of success.
EDIT: Region idea proved not to be sufficient
EDIT: New theory is same continent plus provinces on other continents to which you have road access. (Possibly problems with Indonesia there.. Needs looking into)
I've been hopping around with my capital during testing, however, and a possible solution suggests itself. Do away with the nebulous idea of continents (like the continent that - sometimes - would stretch from Thrace to Australia) and focus on the regions instead.
(There are also areas, like the famous area 'Unknown string' that covers all five provinces of Tibet, but since there are more areas than regions, I'll try to stick with regions and see if it works)
My initial investigations suggest that each region (which of your provinces belong in which regions can be seen on page 31 and 32 of the ledger) has a list of regions that are capable of supplying manpower, if your capital lies in that particular region.
1.1.1 The regions are as follows:
Australia
British Isles
Carribean
Central America
Central Asia
Central Europe
China
East Africa
Eastern Europe
HRE
India
Indochina
Indonesia
Japan
Middle East
North Africa
North America
Scandinavia
Siberia
South America
Southern Europe
West Africa
Western Europe
Examples obtained by moving the capital around in a Trebizond/Byzantine World Conquest savefile:
EDIT: Results currently not including Australia, since I forgot to look in that corner
A capital in the region of China (Whether Lhasa or Shanghai, the only two tested), gave manpower from 17 out of the 22 regions (the exceptions being North, Central, and South America, the Carribean and the British Isles)
A capital in the region of Central Europe (Whether Thrace or Salzburg (westmost CE province)) gave manpower from 18 out of the 22 regions (exceptions being the three Americas and the Carribean). So the idea of Thrace as the border between two continents thus explaining Byzantine manpower falls flat, since Salzburg has the same property.
A capital in the region of the British Isles (Northumberland) gave manpower from only 6 out of the 22 regions (British Isles, Eastern Europe, HRE, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, Western Europe)
A capital in the region of Central America (Zacatecas) gave manpower from only Central, North, and South America, and the Carribean.
Since it was the same TAG changing capital location, and since we have at least two sets with no elements in common (Central Africa and China) it is obvious that the regions aren't hardcoded to TAG's in general. Observation also showed that if but one province in a region provided manpower, then all other provinces within the region, that should provide manpower according to the manpower equation, actually did so (all those checked, at least). While certainly far from suffient to serve as proof (consisting of much too small a dataset), it is indicative - and easily falsifiable if wrong.
Please notify me if you find counterexamples. Good counterexamples would be
1) Two nations with capitals within the same region, for which at least one region exists in which the one nation can receive manpower, and the other not (assuming the nation was entitled to manpower based on the manpower equation (section 3), of course)
2) A nation that gains manpower from some provinces within a region but not others within the same region. (Assuming the nation was entitled to manpower based on the manpower equation (section 3), of course)
When talking about province manpower from now on, it is assumed that the province is one that the country is eligible to receive manpower from based on capital location whether that be determined by regions, continents, or divine intervention.
1.2 Basic manpower
Every province has a basic manpower defined in province.csv (fifth number before the type of good produced in the province) and modified during play by the random events 'new land claimed', 'agricultural revolution', and 'establish cantonments' (1.05), and a few nation specific events. I'll denote the basic manpower mBase.
1.3 Population size
The population of a province has an enormous impact on the available manpower applying a percentage modifier to mBase. I'll denote this percentage pPop. The modifiers are as follows:
1.4 Culture
Manpower is also affected by culture. Arguably, culture is the single strongest component in determining the manpower of a province - at least if the province in question has the wrong culture
Following multiplying the the base manpower by the population percentage modifier, one should add the culture modifier.
1.5 Conscription center
A conscription center in a province multiplies has a huge impact on the manpower of a province. Experiments reveal that the province manpower modified for population and culture is subjected to a simple linear transformation in provinces with a conscription center, irrespective of whether it is one of your core provinces or not. If the transformation returns a negative number, which is possible in non-state cultured provinces with low population and/or base manpower, a result of zero manpower is substituted. In other words, a conscription center is not guaranteed to increase your manpower.
State cultured provinces with a high population, high manpower, and a conscription center can supply immense amounts of manpower.
1.6 Nationalism
As of 1.05 manpower is also reduced by nationalism. Experiments show that it is the base manpower modified by population, culture, and conscription centres, that is reduced by a constant.
2 The province manpower equation
Thus, and without further ado, I present the province manpower equation:
manpower = pCon * ((mBase * pPop) + mCul) + mCon + mNat
If the calculated manpower is negative (due to non-state-culture, a lowmBase, or nationalism or whatever) it is set to zero.
As is clear to the observant reader, the only fractions possible are fourths, since pCon, mBase, mCul, and mCon are natural numbers, and pPop is either 0, 1/4, 2/4, or 3/4.
The manpower equation has been applied to the most typical situations, and the results can be found in the tables in section 6.
3 Conclusions
A state cultured province in a location eligible for manpower will always supply some manpower.
However, a non-state cultured province will only add to your manpower from a certain base manpower,
Given that outside Europe manpower greater than 3 or 4 is uncommon, it is no wonder that colonising is the way to prosperity for e.g. Asian minors with quaint few-province cultures. (Though there are exceptions. Isfahan with a Centre of Trade, high population, and a base manpower of 10, is a prize for anyone. With a conscription center, Isfahan can supply Persia with a whopping 23.5 manpower, and without it is still worth 5.5 manpower to total strangers that can draw manpower from the Middle East.)
4 Total manpower
The manpower and the sum of province manpower can be read in the ledger. This value is modified by your domestic policy slider setting for quality, ranging from a +50% bonus at full quantity, to a -50% malus at full quality. This modified number is your total manpower. It represents how many recruits are added to your manpower pool every year (the manpower pool is limited in size to twice your total manpower), and is also added directly to your support limit (beyond your support limit, seen on the army screen, you pay extra for support of your troops).
In effect, full quantity allows you to recruit three times as many soldiers per year as full quality, and at a reduced price for infantry and cavalry, making quantity attractive both for nations with high manpower who can afford to send neverending waves of soldiers and for smaller nations that desperately need manpower.
5 Manpower myths laid to rest
Experiments have now shown, that
1) There is no manpower bonus for the capital province.
2) Religion has no influence on manpower whatsoever (except that converting pagans gives them your state culture, but that is a different matter)
3) Core/noncore status has no effect on manpower, save for allowing conscription centres to be built
4) Manpower is independent of difficulty level and aggressiveness setting
5) Provinces that supply manpower are not based simply on the continent of the capital with any sort of usual definition of continent
6 Province manpower tables
Using the equation derived above, I have made the following tables. Their predictions are in accord with observed evidence as of 1.05 (or until one of you sharp-eyed folks finds an exception or a typo). They assume that nationalism has died down to the level than mNat=0 (i.e. 10 years have passed since conquest as of 1.05)
I am not sure the following is complete (probably not) or indeed error-free (yeah, right), and, God knows, there may be important exceptions to my findings, but if so I am confident some of you friendly readers will inform me. (Especially regarding subsection 1.1, should my surmise be wrong)
EDIT: it was
Index:
1 Province manpower factors
2 Province manpower equation
3 Conclusions
4 Total manpower
5 Manpower myths laid to rest
6 Province manpower tables
Enjoy,
Peter Ebbesen.
1 Province manpower factors
First let us consider the manpower of individual provinces. This figure can easily be obtained by reading the ledger (13:Taxation & Production Breakdown and 31:Non-Colonial Provinces), though all figures are rounded up to one decimal precision. Given the findings below (that the manpower fraction is always 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, or 0) this means that the ledger will always read a whole number plus a decimal which is one of {0, 3, 5, 8}, such as 1.3, 0.5, 2.8 and so on and so forth.
1.1 Capital location
The provinces in which you can potentially receive manpower is based on the location of your capital. Core provinces have no influence on this (tested).
It has often been suggested that it is the location of the capital on a specific continent that defines, which provinces can give manpower. This has occasioned many interesting definitions of continents to fit observed facts, with varying degrees of success.
EDIT: Region idea proved not to be sufficient
EDIT: New theory is same continent plus provinces on other continents to which you have road access. (Possibly problems with Indonesia there.. Needs looking into)
I've been hopping around with my capital during testing, however, and a possible solution suggests itself. Do away with the nebulous idea of continents (like the continent that - sometimes - would stretch from Thrace to Australia) and focus on the regions instead.
(There are also areas, like the famous area 'Unknown string' that covers all five provinces of Tibet, but since there are more areas than regions, I'll try to stick with regions and see if it works)
My initial investigations suggest that each region (which of your provinces belong in which regions can be seen on page 31 and 32 of the ledger) has a list of regions that are capable of supplying manpower, if your capital lies in that particular region.
1.1.1 The regions are as follows:
Australia
British Isles
Carribean
Central America
Central Asia
Central Europe
China
East Africa
Eastern Europe
HRE
India
Indochina
Indonesia
Japan
Middle East
North Africa
North America
Scandinavia
Siberia
South America
Southern Europe
West Africa
Western Europe
Examples obtained by moving the capital around in a Trebizond/Byzantine World Conquest savefile:
EDIT: Results currently not including Australia, since I forgot to look in that corner
A capital in the region of China (Whether Lhasa or Shanghai, the only two tested), gave manpower from 17 out of the 22 regions (the exceptions being North, Central, and South America, the Carribean and the British Isles)
A capital in the region of Central Europe (Whether Thrace or Salzburg (westmost CE province)) gave manpower from 18 out of the 22 regions (exceptions being the three Americas and the Carribean). So the idea of Thrace as the border between two continents thus explaining Byzantine manpower falls flat, since Salzburg has the same property.
A capital in the region of the British Isles (Northumberland) gave manpower from only 6 out of the 22 regions (British Isles, Eastern Europe, HRE, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, Western Europe)
A capital in the region of Central America (Zacatecas) gave manpower from only Central, North, and South America, and the Carribean.
Since it was the same TAG changing capital location, and since we have at least two sets with no elements in common (Central Africa and China) it is obvious that the regions aren't hardcoded to TAG's in general. Observation also showed that if but one province in a region provided manpower, then all other provinces within the region, that should provide manpower according to the manpower equation, actually did so (all those checked, at least). While certainly far from suffient to serve as proof (consisting of much too small a dataset), it is indicative - and easily falsifiable if wrong.
Please notify me if you find counterexamples. Good counterexamples would be
1) Two nations with capitals within the same region, for which at least one region exists in which the one nation can receive manpower, and the other not (assuming the nation was entitled to manpower based on the manpower equation (section 3), of course)
2) A nation that gains manpower from some provinces within a region but not others within the same region. (Assuming the nation was entitled to manpower based on the manpower equation (section 3), of course)
When talking about province manpower from now on, it is assumed that the province is one that the country is eligible to receive manpower from based on capital location whether that be determined by regions, continents, or divine intervention.
1.2 Basic manpower
Every province has a basic manpower defined in province.csv (fifth number before the type of good produced in the province) and modified during play by the random events 'new land claimed', 'agricultural revolution', and 'establish cantonments' (1.05), and a few nation specific events. I'll denote the basic manpower mBase.
1.3 Population size
The population of a province has an enormous impact on the available manpower applying a percentage modifier to mBase. I'll denote this percentage pPop. The modifiers are as follows:
Code:
Population pPop
---------------------
0- 699 0.00
700- 20000 0.25
20001-200000 0.50
200001-999999 0.75
1.4 Culture
Manpower is also affected by culture. Arguably, culture is the single strongest component in determining the manpower of a province - at least if the province in question has the wrong culture
Code:
Culture mCul
-----------------------
State culture 0.0
Non-state culture -2.0
1.5 Conscription center
A conscription center in a province multiplies has a huge impact on the manpower of a province. Experiments reveal that the province manpower modified for population and culture is subjected to a simple linear transformation in provinces with a conscription center, irrespective of whether it is one of your core provinces or not. If the transformation returns a negative number, which is possible in non-state cultured provinces with low population and/or base manpower, a result of zero manpower is substituted. In other words, a conscription center is not guaranteed to increase your manpower.
State cultured provinces with a high population, high manpower, and a conscription center can supply immense amounts of manpower.
Code:
Conscription pCon mCon
--------------------------
Present 3.0 1.0
Not present 1.0 0.0
1.6 Nationalism
As of 1.05 manpower is also reduced by nationalism. Experiments show that it is the base manpower modified by population, culture, and conscription centres, that is reduced by a constant.
Code:
Nationalism mNat
----------------------
No nationalism 0.0
0-10 years left 0.0
10-20 years left 0.0
20-30 years left -1.0
2 The province manpower equation
Thus, and without further ado, I present the province manpower equation:
manpower = pCon * ((mBase * pPop) + mCul) + mCon + mNat
If the calculated manpower is negative (due to non-state-culture, a lowmBase, or nationalism or whatever) it is set to zero.
As is clear to the observant reader, the only fractions possible are fourths, since pCon, mBase, mCul, and mCon are natural numbers, and pPop is either 0, 1/4, 2/4, or 3/4.
The manpower equation has been applied to the most typical situations, and the results can be found in the tables in section 6.
3 Conclusions
A state cultured province in a location eligible for manpower will always supply some manpower.
However, a non-state cultured province will only add to your manpower from a certain base manpower,
Code:
Without conscription center:
700- 20000: Its base manpower is >= 9
20001-200000: Its base manpower is >= 5
200001-999999: Its base manpower is >= 3
With a conscription center:
700- 20000: Its base manpower is >= 7
20001-200000: Its base manpower is >= 4
200001-999999: Its base manpower is >= 3
Given that outside Europe manpower greater than 3 or 4 is uncommon, it is no wonder that colonising is the way to prosperity for e.g. Asian minors with quaint few-province cultures. (Though there are exceptions. Isfahan with a Centre of Trade, high population, and a base manpower of 10, is a prize for anyone. With a conscription center, Isfahan can supply Persia with a whopping 23.5 manpower, and without it is still worth 5.5 manpower to total strangers that can draw manpower from the Middle East.)
4 Total manpower
The manpower and the sum of province manpower can be read in the ledger. This value is modified by your domestic policy slider setting for quality, ranging from a +50% bonus at full quantity, to a -50% malus at full quality. This modified number is your total manpower. It represents how many recruits are added to your manpower pool every year (the manpower pool is limited in size to twice your total manpower), and is also added directly to your support limit (beyond your support limit, seen on the army screen, you pay extra for support of your troops).
In effect, full quantity allows you to recruit three times as many soldiers per year as full quality, and at a reduced price for infantry and cavalry, making quantity attractive both for nations with high manpower who can afford to send neverending waves of soldiers and for smaller nations that desperately need manpower.
5 Manpower myths laid to rest
Experiments have now shown, that
1) There is no manpower bonus for the capital province.
2) Religion has no influence on manpower whatsoever (except that converting pagans gives them your state culture, but that is a different matter)
3) Core/noncore status has no effect on manpower, save for allowing conscription centres to be built
4) Manpower is independent of difficulty level and aggressiveness setting
5) Provinces that supply manpower are not based simply on the continent of the capital with any sort of usual definition of continent
6 Province manpower tables
Using the equation derived above, I have made the following tables. Their predictions are in accord with observed evidence as of 1.05 (or until one of you sharp-eyed folks finds an exception or a typo). They assume that nationalism has died down to the level than mNat=0 (i.e. 10 years have passed since conquest as of 1.05)
Code:
Population 700-20000
mBase | SC SC/Con | NonSC NonSc/Con
--------------------------------------
1 | 0.25 1.75 | 0.00 0.00
2 | 0.50 2.50 | 0.00 0.00
3 | 0.75 3.25 | 0.00 0.00
4 | 1.00 4.00 | 0.00 0.00
5 | 1.25 4.75 | 0.00 0.00
6 | 1.50 5.50 | 0.00 0.00
7 | 1.75 6.25 | 0.00 0.25
8 | 2.00 7.00 | 0.00 1.00
9 | 2.25 7.75 | 0.25 1.75
10 | 2.50 8.50 | 0.50 2.00
Population 20001-200000
mBase | SC SC/Con | NonSC NonSc/Con
--------------------------------------
1 | 0.50 2.50 | 0.00 0.00
2 | 1.00 4.00 | 0.00 0.00
3 | 1.50 5.50 | 0.00 0.00
4 | 2.00 7.00 | 0.00 1.00
5 | 2.50 8.50 | 0.50 2.50
6 | 3.00 10.00 | 1.00 4.00
7 | 3.50 11.50 | 1.50 5.50
8 | 4.00 13.00 | 2.00 7.00
9 | 4.50 14.50 | 2.50 8.50
10 | 5.00 16.00 | 3.00 10.00
Population 200001-999999
mBase | SC SC/Con | NonSC NonSc/Con
--------------------------------------
1 | 0.75 3.25 | 0.00 0.00
2 | 1.50 5.50 | 0.00 0.00
3 | 2.25 7.75 | 0.25 1.75
4 | 3.00 10.00 | 1.00 4.00
5 | 3.75 12.25 | 1.75 6.25
6 | 4.50 14.50 | 2.50 8.50
7 | 5.25 16.75 | 3.25 10.75
8 | 6.00 19.00 | 4.00 13.00
9 | 6.75 21.25 | 4.75 15.25
10 | 7.50 23.50 | 5.50 17.50
Last edited: