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Peter Ebbesen

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Inspired by a game playing Tibet, I've been looking at the concept of manpower as implemented in EU2. Since I couldn't find a FAQ on this subject, I decided to set up a series of experiments involving save-game mutilation to solve the mystery of how the various factors interface. I ended up with a rather elegant equation that appeals to the mathematician in me, and decided to spread the gospel :)

I am not sure the following is complete (probably not) or indeed error-free (yeah, right), and, God knows, there may be important exceptions to my findings, but if so I am confident some of you friendly readers will inform me. (Especially regarding subsection 1.1, should my surmise be wrong)

EDIT: it was

Index:
1 Province manpower factors
2 Province manpower equation
3 Conclusions
4 Total manpower
5 Manpower myths laid to rest
6 Province manpower tables

Enjoy,
Peter Ebbesen.



1 Province manpower factors

First let us consider the manpower of individual provinces. This figure can easily be obtained by reading the ledger (13:Taxation & Production Breakdown and 31:Non-Colonial Provinces), though all figures are rounded up to one decimal precision. Given the findings below (that the manpower fraction is always 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, or 0) this means that the ledger will always read a whole number plus a decimal which is one of {0, 3, 5, 8}, such as 1.3, 0.5, 2.8 and so on and so forth.

1.1 Capital location

The provinces in which you can potentially receive manpower is based on the location of your capital. Core provinces have no influence on this (tested).

It has often been suggested that it is the location of the capital on a specific continent that defines, which provinces can give manpower. This has occasioned many interesting definitions of continents to fit observed facts, with varying degrees of success.

EDIT: Region idea proved not to be sufficient

EDIT: New theory is same continent plus provinces on other continents to which you have road access. (Possibly problems with Indonesia there.. Needs looking into)


I've been hopping around with my capital during testing, however, and a possible solution suggests itself. Do away with the nebulous idea of continents (like the continent that - sometimes - would stretch from Thrace to Australia) and focus on the regions instead.

(There are also areas, like the famous area 'Unknown string' that covers all five provinces of Tibet, but since there are more areas than regions, I'll try to stick with regions and see if it works)

My initial investigations suggest that each region (which of your provinces belong in which regions can be seen on page 31 and 32 of the ledger) has a list of regions that are capable of supplying manpower, if your capital lies in that particular region.

1.1.1 The regions are as follows:

Australia
British Isles
Carribean
Central America
Central Asia
Central Europe
China
East Africa
Eastern Europe
HRE
India
Indochina
Indonesia
Japan
Middle East
North Africa
North America
Scandinavia
Siberia
South America
Southern Europe
West Africa
Western Europe


Examples obtained by moving the capital around in a Trebizond/Byzantine World Conquest savefile:

EDIT: Results currently not including Australia, since I forgot to look in that corner :)

A capital in the region of China (Whether Lhasa or Shanghai, the only two tested), gave manpower from 17 out of the 22 regions (the exceptions being North, Central, and South America, the Carribean and the British Isles)

A capital in the region of Central Europe (Whether Thrace or Salzburg (westmost CE province)) gave manpower from 18 out of the 22 regions (exceptions being the three Americas and the Carribean). So the idea of Thrace as the border between two continents thus explaining Byzantine manpower falls flat, since Salzburg has the same property.

A capital in the region of the British Isles (Northumberland) gave manpower from only 6 out of the 22 regions (British Isles, Eastern Europe, HRE, Scandinavia, Southern Europe, Western Europe)

A capital in the region of Central America (Zacatecas) gave manpower from only Central, North, and South America, and the Carribean.

Since it was the same TAG changing capital location, and since we have at least two sets with no elements in common (Central Africa and China) it is obvious that the regions aren't hardcoded to TAG's in general. Observation also showed that if but one province in a region provided manpower, then all other provinces within the region, that should provide manpower according to the manpower equation, actually did so (all those checked, at least). While certainly far from suffient to serve as proof (consisting of much too small a dataset), it is indicative - and easily falsifiable if wrong.

Please notify me if you find counterexamples. Good counterexamples would be

1) Two nations with capitals within the same region, for which at least one region exists in which the one nation can receive manpower, and the other not (assuming the nation was entitled to manpower based on the manpower equation (section 3), of course)

2) A nation that gains manpower from some provinces within a region but not others within the same region. (Assuming the nation was entitled to manpower based on the manpower equation (section 3), of course)


When talking about province manpower from now on, it is assumed that the province is one that the country is eligible to receive manpower from based on capital location whether that be determined by regions, continents, or divine intervention.


1.2 Basic manpower

Every province has a basic manpower defined in province.csv (fifth number before the type of good produced in the province) and modified during play by the random events 'new land claimed', 'agricultural revolution', and 'establish cantonments' (1.05), and a few nation specific events. I'll denote the basic manpower mBase.

1.3 Population size

The population of a province has an enormous impact on the available manpower applying a percentage modifier to mBase. I'll denote this percentage pPop. The modifiers are as follows:

Code:
Population       pPop
---------------------
     0-   699    0.00
   700- 20000    0.25
 20001-200000    0.50
200001-999999    0.75

1.4 Culture

Manpower is also affected by culture. Arguably, culture is the single strongest component in determining the manpower of a province - at least if the province in question has the wrong culture :D Following multiplying the the base manpower by the population percentage modifier, one should add the culture modifier.

Code:
Culture            mCul
-----------------------
State culture       0.0
Non-state culture  -2.0

1.5 Conscription center

A conscription center in a province multiplies has a huge impact on the manpower of a province. Experiments reveal that the province manpower modified for population and culture is subjected to a simple linear transformation in provinces with a conscription center, irrespective of whether it is one of your core provinces or not. If the transformation returns a negative number, which is possible in non-state cultured provinces with low population and/or base manpower, a result of zero manpower is substituted. In other words, a conscription center is not guaranteed to increase your manpower.

State cultured provinces with a high population, high manpower, and a conscription center can supply immense amounts of manpower.

Code:
Conscription    pCon  mCon
--------------------------
Present          3.0   1.0
Not present      1.0   0.0

1.6 Nationalism

As of 1.05 manpower is also reduced by nationalism. Experiments show that it is the base manpower modified by population, culture, and conscription centres, that is reduced by a constant.

Code:
Nationalism       mNat
----------------------
No nationalism     0.0
0-10 years left    0.0
10-20 years left   0.0
20-30 years left  -1.0


2 The province manpower equation

Thus, and without further ado, I present the province manpower equation:

manpower = pCon * ((mBase * pPop) + mCul) + mCon + mNat

If the calculated manpower is negative (due to non-state-culture, a lowmBase, or nationalism or whatever) it is set to zero.

As is clear to the observant reader, the only fractions possible are fourths, since pCon, mBase, mCul, and mCon are natural numbers, and pPop is either 0, 1/4, 2/4, or 3/4.

The manpower equation has been applied to the most typical situations, and the results can be found in the tables in section 6.

3 Conclusions

A state cultured province in a location eligible for manpower will always supply some manpower.

However, a non-state cultured province will only add to your manpower from a certain base manpower,
Code:
Without conscription center:

   700- 20000: Its base manpower is >= 9
 20001-200000: Its base manpower is >= 5
200001-999999: Its base manpower is >= 3


With a conscription center:

   700- 20000: Its base manpower is >= 7
 20001-200000: Its base manpower is >= 4
200001-999999: Its base manpower is >= 3

Given that outside Europe manpower greater than 3 or 4 is uncommon, it is no wonder that colonising is the way to prosperity for e.g. Asian minors with quaint few-province cultures. (Though there are exceptions. Isfahan with a Centre of Trade, high population, and a base manpower of 10, is a prize for anyone. With a conscription center, Isfahan can supply Persia with a whopping 23.5 manpower, and without it is still worth 5.5 manpower to total strangers that can draw manpower from the Middle East.)


4 Total manpower

The manpower and the sum of province manpower can be read in the ledger. This value is modified by your domestic policy slider setting for quality, ranging from a +50% bonus at full quantity, to a -50% malus at full quality. This modified number is your total manpower. It represents how many recruits are added to your manpower pool every year (the manpower pool is limited in size to twice your total manpower), and is also added directly to your support limit (beyond your support limit, seen on the army screen, you pay extra for support of your troops).

In effect, full quantity allows you to recruit three times as many soldiers per year as full quality, and at a reduced price for infantry and cavalry, making quantity attractive both for nations with high manpower who can afford to send neverending waves of soldiers and for smaller nations that desperately need manpower.


5 Manpower myths laid to rest

Experiments have now shown, that

1) There is no manpower bonus for the capital province.

2) Religion has no influence on manpower whatsoever (except that converting pagans gives them your state culture, but that is a different matter)

3) Core/noncore status has no effect on manpower, save for allowing conscription centres to be built

4) Manpower is independent of difficulty level and aggressiveness setting

5) Provinces that supply manpower are not based simply on the continent of the capital with any sort of usual definition of continent


6 Province manpower tables

Using the equation derived above, I have made the following tables. Their predictions are in accord with observed evidence as of 1.05 (or until one of you sharp-eyed folks finds an exception or a typo). They assume that nationalism has died down to the level than mNat=0 (i.e. 10 years have passed since conquest as of 1.05)

Code:
Population 700-20000

mBase | SC    SC/Con | NonSC NonSc/Con
--------------------------------------
  1   | 0.25   1.75  |  0.00   0.00
  2   | 0.50   2.50  |  0.00   0.00
  3   | 0.75   3.25  |  0.00   0.00
  4   | 1.00   4.00  |  0.00   0.00
  5   | 1.25   4.75  |  0.00   0.00
  6   | 1.50   5.50  |  0.00   0.00
  7   | 1.75   6.25  |  0.00   0.25
  8   | 2.00   7.00  |  0.00   1.00
  9   | 2.25   7.75  |  0.25   1.75
 10   | 2.50   8.50  |  0.50   2.00


Population 20001-200000

mBase | SC    SC/Con | NonSC NonSc/Con
--------------------------------------
  1   | 0.50   2.50  |  0.00   0.00
  2   | 1.00   4.00  |  0.00   0.00
  3   | 1.50   5.50  |  0.00   0.00
  4   | 2.00   7.00  |  0.00   1.00
  5   | 2.50   8.50  |  0.50   2.50
  6   | 3.00  10.00  |  1.00   4.00
  7   | 3.50  11.50  |  1.50   5.50
  8   | 4.00  13.00  |  2.00   7.00
  9   | 4.50  14.50  |  2.50   8.50
 10   | 5.00  16.00  |  3.00  10.00


Population 200001-999999

mBase | SC    SC/Con | NonSC NonSc/Con
--------------------------------------
  1   | 0.75   3.25  |  0.00   0.00
  2   | 1.50   5.50  |  0.00   0.00
  3   | 2.25   7.75  |  0.25   1.75
  4   | 3.00  10.00  |  1.00   4.00
  5   | 3.75  12.25  |  1.75   6.25
  6   | 4.50  14.50  |  2.50   8.50
  7   | 5.25  16.75  |  3.25  10.75
  8   | 6.00  19.00  |  4.00  13.00
  9   | 6.75  21.25  |  4.75  15.25
 10   | 7.50  23.50  |  5.50  17.50
 
Last edited:

State Machine

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Cool. I'm sure we can find a home for this information when you consider it complete. :)
 

Secret Master

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Ok, Peter, you partially anticipated a question I was going to post.

Im playing the Uzbeks right now, and my manpower is abysmally low. I know this is due to all those really poor and low population provinces I have.

The problem is that I also do not know what provinces I am eligible to recieve manpower from. I have vassalized a weak Persia, Balchustan, and Sibir. Since BB is an obvious concern, and since Russia just got her Claims in the East, it is really pressing for me to get more manpower, without incurring 20 BB points.

Do you have a complete list of what areas you can get manpower from, assuming you know the area of your capital? i.e. would diplo-annexing Ishafan help my manpower or am I not eligible to get manpower from tha province and I should conquer elsewhere?
 

Araanor

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SM - Assuming Uzbek Khaganate only has Uzbehk as state culture - you're going to be awfully low on manpower. Isfahan is a recommended catch, other than that, I'm not sure what could give a boost. Rich faraway cities like Delhi or Constantinople. Basically, you're out of luck. Oh yeah, there's one way that might work, colonize the siberian corridor. Will take a while.
 

Peter Ebbesen

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Originally posted by Secret Master

Im playing the Uzbeks right now,
<SNIP>
Do you have a complete list of what areas you can get manpower from, assuming you know the area of your capital? i.e. would diplo-annexing Ishafan help my manpower or am I not eligible to get manpower from tha province and I should conquer elsewhere?

I don't have a complete list, and the theory isn't proven yet (but at least counterexamples haven't been rushing in...yet). However, I just hopped my Byzantine capital to Uzbek (region central Asia) and got manpower from just about everywhere (same results as region China), so grabbing Isfahan and Tabaristan (both base 10), and Baluchistan, Fars, Hamadan, Hormouz, Mekran, Tabriz (all base 5) (Persia is home to a concentration of the best manpower provinces in the world outside Europe) and colonising Siberia is the way to go, given your location. Only 0.25 per 700+ province, but there are a lot of provinces out there for the taking. (In the Timurid Scientists, having colonised the entire corridor, Siberia was actually supplying about 10% of my total manpower near the end! And in time it also pays off economically). Of course, if you feel adventuresome, colonise Indonesia for the manpower 2 and 3 colonies, and southern India for the manpower 2 colonies, but usually they are more contested (not to mention bloody far away from Uzbekh)

-

Ha. I just noticed that I forgot the region of Australia in my original post, making for 23 regions rather than 22. Unless the counterexamples come rolling in, I will make a list of eligible regions sometime this coming weekend.

(Oh, and a counterexample should of course be based on the actual mBase of the province in question, meaning that the savefile should be checked to see if it had been modified (by an event). One should check the top of the file where all provinces are listed in natural order. If a province has an entry 'manpower = foo', mBase has the value foo rather than the value from province.csv)
 
Last edited:

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That's very impressive work:)

keep working on it!!
 

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Originally posted by Peter Ebbesen

1.3 Population size

The population of a province has an enormous impact on the available manpower applying a percentage modifier to mBase. I'll denote this percentage pPop.
=> "mPop" later on in the formula... ;)

Great work anyway!
It would be nice to have an explanation of the notations right next to the formula - makes it easier to keep up and to apply it.
 

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I have to say I think I have some different results than you have posted above. Playing the aztecs at max quality (-50%) manpower. That is pretty much what I am seeing in my provences.
Manpower as listed in Provence.csv / 2 (ie50%). I will look into it a little more when I get home.
 

unmerged(7996)

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Peter,

I am amazed by the detail of this study. With a little more work you could probably turn it into a thesis.:D

Seriously though, this is a very good study. People like yourself (kurtbrian, JohnMK, Mad King James, Secret Master, LordBarkingDog, and others) have made EUII a much better experience through your efforts. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with the rest of us.:)
 

Secret Master

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Originally posted by Peter Ebbesen


I don't have a complete list, and the theory isn't proven yet (but at least counterexamples haven't been rushing in...yet). However, I just hopped my Byzantine capital to Uzbek (region central Asia) and got manpower from just about everywhere (same results as region China), so grabbing Isfahan and Tabaristan (both base 10), and Baluchistan, Fars, Hamadan, Hormouz, Mekran, Tabriz (all base 5) (Persia is home to a concentration of the best manpower provinces in the world outside Europe) and colonising Siberia is the way to go, given your location. Only 0.25 per 700+ province, but there are a lot of provinces out there for the taking. (In the Timurid Scientists, having colonised the entire corridor, Siberia was actually supplying about 10% of my total manpower near the end! And in time it also pays off economically). Of course, if you feel adventuresome, colonise Indonesia for the manpower 2 and 3 colonies, and southern India for the manpower 2 colonies, but usually they are more contested (not to mention bloody far away from Uzbekh)

Well, then it appears my overall strategy of expansion is what causd my final demise. After I posted my above remarks, I continued to play, desperately trying to expand without incurring the wrath of BB wars. Of course, one doesn't need BB wars to have Delhi, Russia, and China all DOW at the same time with all their allies to come and crush you. It was a good fight, but only having a manpower of 25 (not having that mongol culture made life even more difficult), they were able to partition me between themselves. I put up the good fight, but finally lost one to the AI.

Now, I know what I should have done. I should have taken the BB hit and annexed provinces directly from Persia. What I did instead was to force convert them, then force-vasaslize them for a future dipo-annex. But since they were in Delhi's alliance, they kepy breaking the vassalage becaues of Delhi's wars. sigh...

The irony is that I could fend off any two of the above mentioned alliances. But between all of them, my manpower was simply too low, and the AI really wanted all of my provinces. Next time, I'll just crush Persia and let my BB be damned. That was simply too much manpower to leave alone...

Thanks for the research Peter. Now I know what direction to take my conquests now...
 

Peter Ebbesen

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Re: Re: Manpower Maths

Originally posted by G'Kar

=> "mPop" later on in the formula... ;)

Great work anyway!
It would be nice to have an explanation of the notations right next to the formula - makes it easier to keep up and to apply it.

I hate typos. Even when they are consistent. Now pPop all the way. Will add notation to next revision.

Originally posted by Castelion
I have to say I think I have some different results than you have posted above. Playing the aztecs at max quality (-50%) manpower. That is pretty much what I am seeing in my provences.
Manpower as listed in Provence.csv / 2 (ie50%). I will look into it a little more when I get home.
Please check. I just started a 1.05 GC1419 Aztec game to see if I could find any discrepancies, and got the following results.

Code:
Province       Pop mBase | pPop mNat mCul pCon mCon | Predicted | Observed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
24/Jalisco....    5000   1   | 0.25  0.0  0.0  1.0  0.0 |    0.25   | 0.3 (0.25)
25/Saltillo.....   5000   1   | 0.25  0.0  0.0  1.0  0.0 |    0.25   | 0.3 (0.25)
26/Michoagan  5000   3   | 0.25  0.0  0.0  1.0  0.0 |    0.75   | 0.8 (0.75)
27/Zacatecas 40000   3   | 0.50  0.0  0.0  1.0  0.0 |    1.50   | 1.5 (1.50)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                2.75   | 2.8 (2.75)
At least initially the predicted and observed manpower corresponds, both for individual provinces, and for the total (as seen on the production and taxation breakdown ledger).

The Aztecs start at quality 1: +40% manpower

The manpower pool should replenish 1.4*2.75*1000 men = 3850 men which is rounded to 3000 in the top right corner display.

It should contain twice that, 7700 men, which is rounded to 7000 in the top right corner display.

Both of these predictions are observed to come true :D

(And no, I don't know why these figures are always rounded down to the nearest thousand.)

Please follow up with your investigation. If the equation fits in the initial conditions, but fails to work later on, something is fishy :)

Ps: Does anybody know how I can get to use a non-proportional font? Even the code directive which preserves spacing fucks up my tables by using a non-proportional font. BAH :(
 

jpd

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In this thread there is a lot of reference to a base manpower value for each province.

Is there any way to access that info directly from within the game (especially for uncolonized provinces), or is it only retrievable by accessing the spec files directly?

Upto now I always looked at the base tax value to pick provinces to colonize, assuming that manpower would follow when I buildup the colony to city level.

As I read your very detailed manpower calculations, I see now that my assumptions were flawed :p

Jan Peter
 

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Originally posted by BiB
IF Peter makes a new, definite version, xure.

Well, I haven't received any counterexamples to the region idea yet nor any to the basic province manpower maths (Castelion didn't follow up), so lacking definite word from on high (Johan) such as "quite right" or "dead wrong", this is about as good as it is going to be. I haven't had time to compile a list for all regions by capital-hopping, but should have an updated version including good provinces for colonisation (manpower based) ready within a week.

- BiB, should I just update my first entry in this thread at that time, or make a new thread?

It's incredible how playing Tibet can make one focus on the manpower issue, isn't it :D

(It was taking all those taxvalue>10 provinces from China giving me zero manpower that finally pushed me over the brink)

- and jpd, the answer is no. You can only find the basic manpower in province.csv (until it has been modified by an event, in which case it is in the savefile). It is not displayed separately within the game or the scenario editor. So you'll have to break open the file.