Base means, unmodified. When you are starting with modifiers, and different modifiers at that, you get different results.
As to your calculations, you seem to have missed parts of it or the formula and assumpitons. To start with you are using the manpower recovery speed to modifier your manpower pool in the first calculation, but the additional manpower recovery is applied separately?
Using the formula from the Wiki (which you said is correct) for a OPM is:
Monthly Manpower = (10,000 + (250*Manpower Dev*(1+provincial manpower modifiers+national manpower modifiers))*(1+Manpower recovery modifier))/250
With a 10 manpower province and no modifiers (I tested a few of these in game but without modding finding the right mix of modifiers is difficult to test everything):
- Monthly Manpower = (10,000 + (250*10*(1+0+0))*(1+0))/120 = 104
- With a 10 manpower province and 100% Provincial Manpower modifiers:
- Monthly Manpower = (10,000 + (250*10*(1+1+0))*(1+0))/120 = 125
- With a 10 manpower province and 100% National Manpower modifiers:
- Monthly Manpower = (10,000 + (250*10*(1+0+1))*(1+0))/120 = 125
- With a 10 manpower province and 100% Manpower Recovery modifiers:
- Monthly Manpower = (10,000 + (250*10*(1+0+0))*(1+1))/120 = 125
- With a 10 manpower province and 50% National Manpower (or Provincial Manpower) and 50% Manpower Recovery modifiers:
- Monthly Manpower = (10,000 + (250*10*(1+0+0.5))*(1+0.5))/120 = 130
So we are back to, your optimal situation to maximize manpower recovery (generally much more important than your max manpower pool as you should be below your cap almost all the time) is that your Manpower Pool Modifier equals your Manpower Recovery Modifier. In light of that, since your manpower pool modifiers are a lot easier to get to a very high level, manpower recovery modifiers are almost always better.
In your examples, despite the numbers not making much sense, the fact that your starting point has a much higher Manpower Pool Modifier means that the Manpower Recovery will be better because it makes them more balanced.
This goes for everything in the game, when dealing with positive modifiers that multiply each other you are best if they are equal. When dealing with negative additive modifiers that multiply each other you want to maximize one of the modifiers.