I feel better about my "S & R" weakness now. "A problem shared is a problem halved", as my Granny used to say. "Except for sexually transmitted diseases, of course", as she usually didn't add.
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I feel better about my "S & R" weakness now. "A problem shared is a problem halved", as my Granny used to say. "Except for sexually transmitted diseases, of course", as she usually didn't add.
Originally posted by emir
every time you try to colonize there is 70% chance that you are going to succeed. now if you try to colonize five times in a row there is
0,243% chance that you will not succeed (0,3 * 0,3 * 0,3 * 0,3 * 0,3 = 0,00243). it is very unlikely but it is possible that you will not succeed in 5 times, thus saving and reloading before colonization is cheating
Actually it doesn't seem to help, and I wonder if Agelastus is right about the programme being bloody-minded. I've tried reloading and recolonising lots of times and I've never yet changed the outcome.
S&R helps with wars, battles and random events but apparently not colonisation - unless my PC has been corrupted by a Douglas Adams version of the Laws of Probability.
It does, but it can take upwards of ten gos or more sometimes (I've experimented.
) I even startted wondering if there's another factor involved, that we don't know about-perhaps a number set at the beginning of the year of how many successful attempts there's going to be regardless of the percentages. But when I got less frustrated I realised that was ridiculous! Owl.
I don't feel that looking at BB is cheating-since it's all "supposedly" known as to what does what, I see it as just saving on calculation akin to using a calculator!
I don't know if I have ever had it that bad with colonization % - there is aone in a zillion chances of missing 5 consecutive times at 70%+ - and lucky you are the one! Those failures sure are frustrating, but I just figure that being the man behind the throne is a frustrating job. But you are right - I say that now , but when it happens...look out! The only one I can now remember getting really miffed at is missing a 95% chance twice in a row.
I do never save, my computer has the nasty habit to crash to desktop quite usually (and looking at its performance, I probably inherited the mainboard from Napoleon), so the autosave for me is a must. And you don't need a hardcore option, if you are honest with yourself, when you lose, you lose. That's it, simply don't reload.
Re: Peeking
What is wrong with checking your BB rating??
Usually it'll show it is too high anyway.
What is wrong with checking your BB rating??
Usually it'll show it is too high anyway.
Re: Re: Peeking
Not for me these days-I'm a converted man!
It's more fun trying to finesse the game by keeping it down-current game I'm going to have virtually all of Germany conquered/annexed by 1600, with a maximum BB of 12 (and that was only because I inherited Thuringen at the wrong time pre-the war I was planning to launch to preserve my Alliance at Protestant conversion!)
Originally posted by Carolus Rex
What is wrong with checking your BB rating??
Usually it'll show it is too high anyway.
Not for me these days-I'm a converted man!
It's more fun trying to finesse the game by keeping it down-current game I'm going to have virtually all of Germany conquered/annexed by 1600, with a maximum BB of 12 (and that was only because I inherited Thuringen at the wrong time pre-the war I was planning to launch to preserve my Alliance at Protestant conversion!
)
Originally posted by Lord Agelastus
It does, but it can take upwards of ten gos or more sometimes (I've experimented.
Is it so ridiculous? I have done this same experiment in supposedly High-probablity colonization areas... its statistically almost impossible, yet I have tested this in many places. I think that (And I am being serious) the colonization percentages listed are NOT correct, and/or that there is some other factor at work... any guesses?
I read on the main page that there would be 180 countries and all would be playable and annexable. So I don't see why majors would be a big deal.
I think 90% of the new countries will be possible revolters or tribes from all around the world. I wonder where we'll colonize then...
i Guess the only thing to set majors apart is they will most likely have more special events, and of course, larger and more prosperus countries
Re colonisation success
I've noticed that the game appears to get stuck sometimes - I've had the 5 fails in a row at 60% + success (1%) chance more than once. I've also had three successes at 30% (3%) more than once. Maybe it's luck but it happens a little too frequently. Does Paradox need a new random number generator!?
I've noticed that the game appears to get stuck sometimes - I've had the 5 fails in a row at 60% + success (1%) chance more than once. I've also had three successes at 30% (3%) more than once. Maybe it's luck but it happens a little too frequently. Does Paradox need a new random number generator!?
On colonization
I noted that the chances of successful colonization are calculated when you press the send colonist button. So if you reload a game saved after the colonist was sent, it will always fail if that was the chosen outcome. You have to save before sending the colonists..
I noted that the chances of successful colonization are calculated when you press the send colonist button. So if you reload a game saved after the colonist was sent, it will always fail if that was the chosen outcome. You have to save before sending the colonists..
What I've always found disturbing is that the % we are given are absolutely inaccurate, you can fail 3-4 times in a row on a 50% colony and then succeed in placing colonists in several African 35% provinces. And that is not sheer luck, it's a pattern.
It probably is a pattern because random numbers on pcs are only semi-random. But then again there is always that possibility...
It is not at all unlikely that the random numbers generated in your example above could have been - 62 - 94 - 88 - 33 - 2 which would have given you the result of failing three times on the 50% chance and succeeding on twice on the 35% chance. If somewhere in between those five events you saved and restarted the game then the random number seed was regenerated and you get an entirely different "random" patern of numbers.
If you have a 50% chance it does not change each time - it is still only 50% the third, fourth, fifth etc. (unless you add a conquistador or something like that). So each time you try has no bearing on how many other times you have tried.
I normally have pretty good luck at matching the odds- I've seen the odd 85% colony and failed 6 times in a row but normally everything seems to work out about right.
It is that old line, if you've flipped a coin 10 itmes and it comes up heads, what are the odds it comes up heads the 11th time? 50-50.