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Gamera

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I'm playing as Poland, naturally leading the personal union with Lithuania, and after a few years, Lithuania got DoW by Muscovy... strangely, I never saw any call to arms, and Lithuania has to fight off by itself. I reloaded the game and the exact same thing happened.

I'm quite puzzled as it's the first time that kind of thing ever happened to me.
 

viale

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Quite a few Casus belli only triggers when you pass the 30th on a given month, wait for the month to pass and see if you perhaps will get a Casus Belli on Februrary 1st
 

Wimar

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Did you check if you were actually allied with Lithuania? If your relation with a partner is low enough I believe the lesser partner breaks the alliance (at least that's how it works in MM).
 

Gamera

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humm relations around 90-100...from the log I have an explanation: sounds like Lithuania always break the alliance at that certain date and is automatically DoW by Muscowy the next day
 

Wimar

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That might be. Also a possibility would be that you had a smaller army. A lesser member aims at breaking the union if they have a larger army (by insulting you until relationships are low).