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Rensslaer

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When last we left the story, remember I had obviously reached a decision point, but we weren’t sure quite what I’d decided. I had been suddenly completing and deploying my “Production Reserve” – the units which I didn’t want to complete and deploy because they would raise my Threat with the Allies. Now I’m deploying a tremendous number of units, all of a sudden. I continue to do so…

WesternFront.jpg


Two of my new constructs – motorized infantry divisions – go to fill my holes along the Western Front, just in case France decides to feel threatened by all of my sudden activity. I would have used regular infantry, but this was all I had right now. I’ll replace them and move them east when I complete new regular infantry. For all our flurry and hurry, the French don’t seem to be greatly concerned – Threat from Germany to France has gone up only to 7.8 now. I plan more deployments, but I relax a little because the Soviet Threat against France is 31 now. If I go to war, I expect my Threat against everyone to go up some. Deal with that when it happens…

We deploy another airwing of medium/tactical bombers to Oppeln, so they’ll be ready to operate over Poland. The rest of our forces there are already in place.

Kampfgeschwader.jpg


Our Light Tank technology improves in all categories during the month of July, 1943. We’re also improve the Morale of our ground crews for Fighters and Light Bombers (CAS) – this will help them recover from combat damage and operational disorganization.

We see the Soviets choose Firepower Infantry Doctrine and Combined Arms Tank Doctrine. Interesting choices.

ResourceCrisis.jpg


I’m still having serious difficulties in my second round of the Resource Crisis. My low point, as I recall, was about 21,000 Energy in my stockpile. I’d gone back up to about 55,000 before the storaging problems (HPP event) hit me again and started forcing my stockpile lower again. Trading with the Soviets helped some, but I’m losing nearly 1,000 Metal every month (that leftmost tooltip is for Metal, the rightmost is for Rares), and 500 Rares per month. The Rares are the most critical – almost emergency levels! I would be completely out of Rares by the beginning of 1945 at that rate, but even sooner if I went to war and increased my IC consumption.

An interesting event comes up. It’s an option of whether to press my claims upon Belgium – the town of Eupen is a German core. Obviously, I’m trying to keep good relations with the western powers, and so I decide to ignore this claim and give up our rights.

Eupen.jpg


This causes some Dissent among our people, but nothing unbearable. We gain 2 in Neutrality, which is meaningless, really, because we could declare war upon those we want to at any time… IF we wanted to.

We set up another trade with the Soviet Union. They’re being more careful about what they agree to, but this will help somewhat. We deploy another 2 Transports – not that we really need them, but I’m clearing out my Production Reserve…

NewTrade.jpg


We continue improving our Infantry techs, and our Tank techs. I’m really glad HPP allows you to improve techs for all your tanks at once in some areas, such as crew training (org & morale). The Bridging tech of level 3 now is going to be really helpful if we go to war.

Deployments continue. The light cruiser KMS Mannheim is sent to sea, and KMS Gneisenau is almost ready. Even with all these deployments, our Threat (under HPP rules – vanilla HOI3/SF would be different) is still only up to 8.3.

NewShips.jpg


The tooltip above shows our current Metal stockpile situation – remember we were losing Metal quite quickly before. Now we’re gaining Metal stockpiles again, and not necessarily because of trade. If you haven’t noticed yet – it’s been in most of the screenshots so far, and if you noticed it you either had an epiphany and went “Ah!”, or else you’ve been wondering “What the hell…?” – my unused IC has been increasing gradually. We started this update in July, 1943, with 11 unused IC. Now, in September it’s up to 74 unused IC. Why?

With 74 unused IC, my daily consumption of Metal has gone down from 371 to 297. This allows me a daily stockpile increase of nearly 9 units of Metal, compared to a daily loss of 27 before. The lower my IC usage drops, the less strain there is upon my stockpiles, and even without adequate production or trade, I can rebuild my stockpiles more easily. It wasn’t easy for me to decide to give up my Production Reserve – that’s a long-term HOI 3 habit I’ve gotten into. But when I really sized up my stockpile crisis, there were only two apparent solutions – conquer more Resources (assuming I couldn’t trade for more, which I couldn’t), or drop my IC usage. The sacrifice means less IC-construction, and fewer units being constructed. But honestly, I’d come to consider the stockpile crisis the greater national emergency. We continue building IC, and now I don’t even have to worry about more IC making my stockpile situation worse – new IC construction goes straight into the unused IC!

PolandShare.jpg


Maybe I should have done this a long time ago, but I begin sharing Infantry technology with Poland to better enable her to stand up against the USSR should she come knocking. There’s not much point in sharing any other type of technology, because Poland’s military is so heavily infantry-focused, and they don’t have a lot of room for aircraft – they’d get knocked out of the sky quickly anyway. Our Threat to Poland is less than 6, whereas the Soviet Threat is felt to be around 140. Seriously concerning!

Below you’ll see more or less my entire Production Queue (there are several ICs and a couple radars cut off at the end, but showing them would be even more redundant). I’ve got jet fighters almost ready! I keep building Tirpitz and Bismarck because there’s nowhere to put them. I’ll be glad to have them eventually, but now that my Production Reserve is gone I have no choices but to continue building them or to cancel construction and lose my build progress (obviously an unwise choice, militarily and financially).

CrisisSolved.jpg


You can see how our stockpiles are booming now, just one month after we last looked. Rares are still dropping slowly, but considering the 4:2:1 ratio used by IC the Rares and Energy ratios are approximately correct. If I can correct the Rares soon, they’ll be able to keep up with my building Energy stockpile. I’m earning nearly 50 units of both Energy and Metal every day – now gaining these stockpiles at a faster rate than I was losing them before. We now have more than 100 unused IC.

Once we’re gaining a sufficient amount of our stockpiles each day, I consider our “crisis” resolved. I feel free to start throwing measured amounts of production back into the Queue, including 3 new regular Infantry divisions to watch the western border while we shift those Motorized divisions east. We deploy another fighter airwing (pretty sure it was a Heavy Fighter wing).

Advances.jpg


In November, we achieve production advances for Rares and Steel – the tooltips are before and after. Our daily domestic production of Metal increases by 3 (nearly 1,000 per year), and Rares production by 2. That’s very helpful, in the long-term. By November, we’ve more than doubled our stockpile increases over the month before, and unused IC is up to 165, meaning only 210 IC are being used. That is still better than most European countries – probably better than all European countries, now that I think about it – because of my focus on building more IC. If we go to war, we’ll be in good shape to ramp up our production – 376 possible, so far, which would increase to 564 with full economic mobilization (using the HPP model, which allows a 50% increase).

We continue to improve our Light Tank and Infantry techs. Level 9 now, for Small Arms – practically the top of the pack! By the end of the year, we have only 107 IC worth of items in our Production Queue, which means we’re stockpiling at a tremendous rate. Back up to 41,000 Energy, now, and Rares are increasing well now too. The effective stockpile ratio is now 29600:14800:7400 (i.e. because of the 4:2:1 ratio of resource use by IC, I essentially have less than 30,000 of useable Energy, though my stockpile is higher – this will improve as I improve our Rares acquisition).

Europe1944.jpg


And so, Christmas 1943 passes peacefully, and we enter the year 1944 with no combat in Europe, and a surprisingly low level of tension! What will the new year bring? Will we reach 1945 without a war starting? Has the Soviet Union been surfeited? Or will they grow hungry again, after digesting parts of Finland and the Baltic States? Will they look to Poland or Romania for expansion? Or even decide to take on Germany directly?

Only time will tell….
 

Slan

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So, we were all wrong :)
 

TheBromgrev

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I actually know what happens, but won't spoil the story since I want to see how Rensslaer goes about telling it :)
 

Kirsendarken

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Going from a long time lurker to a commenter. I've very much enjoyed all of your AARs and finally got the nerve up to ask a couple of questions :)

I am curious to know how your production queue units would have fared had you deployed them at the start of a war. Been a while since I played HOI3 but wouldn't they have started at the tech level you had when you started construction? Would there have been enough time for them to upgrade before being thrown into combat?

I am also curious as to why you cleared the production queue rather than just reduced the IC production allocation slider? Would that have not also had the same effect?

Looking forward to the next segment!
 

Baltasar

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Is there a particular reason why you only share techs with Poland? Surely the other allied countries would greatly profit from such tech sharing, especially Italy with her fairly large infantry army.

Also, reducing production and instead allocating this towards consumer goods, thus earning you money to buy resources with... wouldn't that have been the usual solution?
 
Last edited:

Tallfellow

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Another excellent update. I half expected war to break out :) But once again, nothing happende :p Damn you and your cliffhangers!!!
 

misterbean

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I did the same thing in my most recent HPP game, though I simply allowed my current production to run out. went from losing over 200 energy per day to gaining enough to allow a build of about 200 IC worth.
Even so, I didn't make the connection, you sly devil, you.
 

TheBromgrev

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Also, reducing production and instead allocating this towards consumer goods, thus earning you money to buy resources with... wouldn't that have been the usual solution?

It doesn't work like that anymore. SF or an earlier patch removed the extra money you made by putting more IC into CG than you needed.
 

Mikeb545

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whoa you made it 44 without no war? I must say im impressed with your patience :D i do remember that the Wermacht in real life wasn't at it strongest in 39 that it would take till 41 for them to be at full strength. Now its 3 years after that and i must say i wouldn't want to be the fools who declare war upon you!
 

unmerged(53911)

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As I continue to follow this AAR I am reminded of a joke/story with a long set up and no punch line. Then I remember that this is an experiment with an audience. It is about the journey, not the destination. :)
 

Stuyvesant

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As I continue to follow this AAR I am reminded of a joke/story with a long set up and no punch line. Then I remember that this is an experiment with an audience. It is about the journey, not the destination. :)

Wise words and a welcome reminder! Thanks! :)

One question about finishing those capital ships you don't really wanted to finish: couldn't you have tweaked your IC sliders, taking most out of actual production and dumping a surplus into upgrades/reinforcements? Wouldn't that have lowered your IC usage just as effectively, without the need to finish all your units?
 

Rensslaer

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Ack! I think I counted 3 updates since my last feedback. I shall endeavour to catch up here.... :)

in ICE, the SU is "hardwired" to invade Germany in 1943 unless it would be obvious suicide. never played that far into HPP, though, for some reason or other. what's your relation with the soviets?
also, off-topic, i bought V2 a couple of days ago and am now reading the strat guide, though I think it may be a little beyond me (the game, that is, not the guide). as always, the guide is excellent, but is it still up-to-date?

Well, as you know, I've just reached 1944 without war. I guess it's hard to say what the SU might consider "obvious suicide", though. I feel weak. They must think I'm strong. Hmm... Relations with the USSR are tolerable, not great. Great to hear about V2! I think you will enjoy it. The guide is still more or less up to date, though there are some significant balance changes that have been made for v1.2, and I have no idea about v1.3 which I think just came out. If you peruse the changelogs for each, it should tell you if there are major changes.

well ... I don't know how Slan has set this up in HPP but on this basis why should the UK et al regard you as anything but a latent continental threat ... certainly not enough to provoke them to risk a war. The USSR will struggle to attack you without first tangling with Poland, and most of the arguments that Stalin would have attacked anyway were based on the assumption that Germany would have been at least distracted by a war with the UK. I'm starting to grow suspicious that you'll pull this off and get to the end with no war ... unless you deliberately set one off?

I bet you're feeling even more suspicious now that I've reached 1944! :)

Very impressive Rensslaer.
How is your manpower situation? I understand you haven't used a single increased draft law.
How are your diplomatic efforts in Romania, Yugoslavia and Scandinavia going?
Are you pulling on Persia for the oil?
So Japan didn't do a Pearl Harbor? Interesting. Are they still under (oil) embargo from the US?
And what is the US doing?

A question for the HPP modders: will the "peaceful Germany" route be considered more in future patches? You have mentioned several times that the UK will only attack the USSR if Germany has already been defeated.

Welcome, Pier! The US is doing nothing, and yes I am pulling other countries toward me still, but I'm despairing of their reaching me anytime soon. There seems to be a plateau or something -- increasing resistance even in the face of high Soviet threat. Odd. Japan has been silent. As for MP my latest screenshot shows 1600. Having never played a long campaign against the USSR I'm not sure if that's alot or not.

Sooner or later, something's gotta give... But what? Will the Allies jump you for annexing Austria, or will war break out over Poland - again?

Your techs are doing well. Researching '46 techs in '42 should mean you have a good lead over your (potential) opponents, right?

Thanks! Well, it's hard to say how far ahead I am. The Soviets are pretty advanced too. Maybe 6 months to a year behind me, I think. I have an inkling they're way behind me in aircraft techs.

Hi! I'm pretty new to HOI and Paradox games, having been initially intimidated and sticking to Civ IV, but am now solidly hooked on HOI3 (playing first game on HPP as Nat China). I'm also getting hooked on reading AAR's and just read this whole thread in the last 2 days. I hope you keep this up, it's been really cool to read and am anxious to see what happens!

Welcome, LaughingTulkas! Glad you've become an HOI 3 fan! Hope you enjoy how this progresses!

You're gonna show Poland who's the boss ? :D

Good guess, but as others have noted there's an alliance there.

War in the east it is then! Redeploying into East Prussia, curshing the Bolsheviks from there. Declare limited war so you do not have to share the glory with those so called allies of yours.

I'm still quite intimidated by the Soviet strength in the Baltic Countries, or I might consider this. I don't believe I have a sufficient offensive force yet, though this may quickly change now that I've cleared out my Production Reserve.

Well, without the Anschluss, there was no Munich Treaty, with no Munich Treaty, there was no First Vienna Award and with no First Vienna Award, there was no Allied Guarantee of Poland. So maybe taking down Poland could be done at this point without Allied intervention might be possible.

Yeah, not sure if the Allies will involve themselves or just watch us duke it out. I'm not hopeful on that, to tell you the truth. From what you've said, I'm their more likely target in any case.

A quick attack through Poland and defensive action in Eastern Prussia. Unless, of course, the Soviets will attack Poland first.

If I were the Soviets, I'd go into Poland first. There's just not a wide enough front in Eastern Prussia. Plus they want that land, and the Polish army is reputed to be not so strong (though in several games I've seen them do quite well).

Romania keeps its eyes closed and avoids looking at the Red Eye that watches over the eastern lands.

Yeah, I'd be nervous! :) They have cavalry, mobile and armored divisions on their border.

I think he's goading the Soviets into attacking or something similar. if such a baby even exists in HOI3. In "I am Siam", he did it several times, looking at his infamy level to see if he could unleash some terror without provoking a response from more powerful neighbours.

According to what I've heard, "goading" would be more effectively accomplished by reducing my strength, rather than adding to it. I think that's not entirely realistic -- there's something to be said for a pre-emptive attack against a strengthening enemy.

You're deploying large numbers of mobile units on the western border of Poland... Move them into Poland proper, all the way into that northeastern salient that juts into the Soviet Baltic, to create a nice pocket of Soviet troops massed on the border with Prussia, perhaps? It looks enticing, on the map...

That would be a good idea, frankly. IF I were inclined to go to war against the USSR. But am I? ;)

Just to avoid going along with the crowd I'm going to ask about the Sudetenland? Are you looking for more sources of raw materials? Czech and Romanian sources?

Well, in HPP (and probably in Vanilla HOI3/SF) you must first take Austria before you can enact the decisions for the Sudetenland. Other sources really aren't there, unless I decide to undertake conquest.

Well, I don't think Germany is about to attack anyone as that would be a complete reversal of state policy. It could perhaps be an attempt to raise tensions and maybe provoke a Soviet response?

A complete reversal indeed. And not something I'm entirely comfortable with anyway -- I don't feel like I'm prepared for a war of my choosing.

Considering all the units you are deploying I would say you are about to take offensive action, but that sounds like it might be a move that goes against the general idea of this AAR. But maybe you are just going to do a short war to get better defensive positions, it is clear that Uncle Joe is dangerous so maybe it is okay to remove Poland from the map so that you have a common border with the Soviet Union and therefore are able to make a pre-emptive strike? It shall be very interesting to see what you have planned and what your next move with all those forces will be…

I think once it starts, the war is going to keep going, as the USSR is judged to be pretty stubborn, and they have enough resources they can keep going for a long long time without compromising.

I guess we'll have to wait and see, no matter how distasteful it is to be at the mercy of yet another Rensslaer cliffhanger. ;)

:D Sorry! So now we've reached 1944 with no war. Is it still a cliffhanger? The peculiar nature of this AAR is that it probably is, in the minds of most! ;)

So, we were all wrong :)

But very good guesses! :D

I actually know what happens, but won't spoil the story since I want to see how Rensslaer goes about telling it :)

Still quite an interesting story, indeed! And perhaps quite a bit more interesting, depending.... I'll let that stand as a teaser. :)

Going from a long time lurker to a commenter. I've very much enjoyed all of your AARs and finally got the nerve up to ask a couple of questions :)

I am curious to know how your production queue units would have fared had you deployed them at the start of a war. Been a while since I played HOI3 but wouldn't they have started at the tech level you had when you started construction? Would there have been enough time for them to upgrade before being thrown into combat?

I am also curious as to why you cleared the production queue rather than just reduced the IC production allocation slider? Would that have not also had the same effect?

Looking forward to the next segment!

Thanks, Kirsendarken! And Welcome! In response to the first question, yes, they would be at 0% Organization, and some of them (about half) are reserves, and so would need to build up to full strength. But because E. Prussia isn't connected to the rest of Germany I can't actually place units from Production straight into E. Prussia -- they'd have to go into Germany proper, and they'd have Poland between them and the Soviets, so I believe they would have time to get up to strength. Your second question was also asked by Stuyvesant at the very end of this feedback string, so if you don't mind I'm going to refer you down there. The short answer is no, it wouldn't achieve the same thing, because of my situation.

Is there a particular reason why you only share techs with Poland? Surely the other allied countries would greatly profit from such tech sharing, especially Italy with her fairly large infantry army.

Also, reducing production and instead allocating this towards consumer goods, thus earning you money to buy resources with... wouldn't that have been the usual solution?

The main reason, honestly, is I didn't think of it! :D I should have tried to share more than just the one tech with Poland, but I forgot that too. Preparing for war is distracting! Yes, other countries should have benefited from my generosity. There's also the fact that it costs me Leadership, and something else -- sharing is not completely free. TheBromgrev answers the second part of your question, partly, below. The other thing I would point out is that I have a considerable bank of cash just lying around, but I can't use it to buy resources because no one will sell to me -- either the market is really tight, and resources are being gobbled up by other powers, or else they don't want to sell to me for one reason or another.

Another excellent update. I half expected war to break out :) But once again, nothing happende :p Damn you and your cliffhangers!!!

Thanks! Glad I had you going! :D

You have high IC and are building more... What for? You have resource problems, after all. Shouldn't you improve your production reserve? Build many IC-intensive units like aircraft or ships?

I'm not sure you read all the way to the end before posting this. As the last update shows, I came to a decision that I'd need to reduce my resource consumption, or else I'd eventually run out and my economy would die. Just conserving, and maintaining a production reserve wouldn't do it -- I'd still have 350 or so IC being used, and I'd still run out of resources. So the only way to reduce my total IC use was to shed my production reserve and begin not using all of my IC. Fortunately, I can still build Industry because they'll just go straight into unused IC -- they won't cost me any more in resources.

this becomes more and more intriguing as to where you're taking us all

Thanks! :D

Damn it i was wrong :(

But good guesses!

What about Soviets going against Japan? Or China?

China is dead (assumed by Japan). Not sure if the Soviets are interested in Japan. Or China.

I did the same thing in my most recent HPP game, though I simply allowed my current production to run out. went from losing over 200 energy per day to gaining enough to allow a build of about 200 IC worth.
Even so, I didn't make the connection, you sly devil, you.

Yeah? Cool. I think in one of my HOI 3 Strategy Guides I mentioned Production Reserves, but not sure I mentioned the unused IC gambit. I'd be curious to know how many people use either Production Reserves or the unused IC thing, whether because of my Strategy Guides or because it's a fairly obvious thing if you really think about it.

It doesn't work like that anymore. SF or an earlier patch removed the extra money you made by putting more IC into CG than you needed.

TheBromgrev is referring to the Consumer Goods for cash thing, which changed since game release. Consumer Goods used to be a good way to earn Money. HPP, I think, has resolved what would otherwise be a problem in how countries can raise money -- they allow you to raise taxes to raise more money. It seems it would be difficult to raise money otherwise, using regular late-patch HOI rules.

whoa you made it 44 without no war? I must say im impressed with your patience :D i do remember that the Wermacht in real life wasn't at it strongest in 39 that it would take till 41 for them to be at full strength. Now its 3 years after that and i must say i wouldn't want to be the fools who declare war upon you!

Yeah, I was kind of surprised too! :D Welcome, MikeB545! Thanks. Remember I haven't been growing my military at the same rate Germany would have during war, so I'm still probably only as strong as Germany would have been in 1941 or earlier.

As I continue to follow this AAR I am reminded of a joke/story with a long set up and no punch line. Then I remember that this is an experiment with an audience. It is about the journey, not the destination. :)

:D I think you hit it on the head! When I first started this, I didn't think anyone would be really that interested in the journey, just in the result. I found out I was very wrong! :)

Wise words and a welcome reminder! Thanks! :)

One question about finishing those capital ships you don't really wanted to finish: couldn't you have tweaked your IC sliders, taking most out of actual production and dumping a surplus into upgrades/reinforcements? Wouldn't that have lowered your IC usage just as effectively, without the need to finish all your units?

Thanks! The thing about the Production Reserve (Kirsendarken asked this above too)... For some reason, I was thinking the only category where I could leave extra IC and have it not "spent" and counted against my used IC total (i.e. consuming resources) was in Production. But now that I look at it, that's clearly not true. You couldn't do that with Supplies, because it WOULD be spent and just produce extra Supplies, and in the release version you could not put it toward Consumer Goods, because it would produce surplus Money. Maybe that's where I got the impression the other sliders were no good. But anyway, I guess I could have left my things in Production Reserve and put extra IC into Upgrades or Reinforcements. I didn't think of that. :) In any case, I didn't mind losing the Production Reserve -- I wanted those things anyway, just not as a priority. If I end up at war with the Allies, as I still may, those ships and subs would come in handy.

Thanks, everybody, for your readership and comments! Not sure when I'll have an update ready again, but I'll get it as soon as I can.

Rensslaer
 

Kirsendarken

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Thanks, Kirsendarken! And Welcome! In response to the first question, yes, they would be at 0% Organization, and some of them (about half) are reserves, and so would need to build up to full strength. But because E. Prussia isn't connected to the rest of Germany I can't actually place units from Production straight into E. Prussia -- they'd have to go into Germany proper, and they'd have Poland between them and the Soviets, so I believe they would have time to get up to strength.
Rensslaer

Thanks for the response!
My first question was related to technology (small arms upgrades, etc) rather than organization. I thought when I played that a unit is deployed with the technology you had when you started its production. I was wondering if having units several tech levels behind (this could be a major problem for units that have been in the production queue for a while) at the start of a war would be problem or if you had a plan to let them upgrade to modern technology before committing them to battle.

I'm learning a lot from your AARs. Thank you very much for doing them.
 

SSmith

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That was a very neat trick with the economy! It makes sense for surplus IC to work like that but I didn't know that it actually did - in fact, I thought I had tested that a very long time ago and figured that it didn't work... Good to know it does. :)

As for your question - I don't think I would use the production reserve idea, at least not deliberately. I do often queue more than I can build and end up revising priorities, so some projects will sometimes get shelved for a time.
 

misterbean

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I don't usually keep production reserves for the very simple reason that seeing a lot of red in my production screen freaks me out, somehow, like I'm doing something wrong. Maybe I'll play around with it a bit, see how it goes. the unused IC gambit seems a good thing for some countries early on (Italy, Japan). other than that, by 1942 I usually have enough countries learning German that it no longer matters.