As you can see, this is before 1490. As soon as Mehmet dies, it becomes impossible to not have it trigger unless you luck out in rulers (I got a 1/3/0). Keeping AT over 70 is incredibly hard. I took all of Anatolia, Byzantium, fought 2 coalition wars against Europe, fought Iberian alliance, fought Mamluks twice, fought QQ and kept all my forts active. And I still couldn't stay up in AT.
The disaster triggers way too fast. I understand it's meant to counterbalance the incredibly powerful buff from the Janissaries, but maybe it could nerfed and make the disaster pop after a certain time period (say late 16th century). It's pretty lame that the signature troops of the Ottomans can't stay past the first ruler (in game) to implement them.
AI seems to have the exact same problem as they generally don't keep it past mid-16th century if they get it from my experience.
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