What? No, definitely neither of them. You should take Religious, which you already have, and Administrative because you will conquer a lot of land.
You will generate merchants by having the majority of the tradepower of a trade company region. The idea is to push through Russia, then Persia, to reach India, and there you will generate merchants by giving land to trade companies, and easily make your homenode the strongest one in the world. Once that's done, that gives you enough of a powerbase to do anything you want, whether it is to invade continental Europe, or to go further east into China and make even more trade companies, or do both.