Is headcapping too powerful?

[Orbitone]

I swear Pandora's Box had UACs in them lol.
A lot of the recent posts all have that in common, yet the debate is about other game aspects being perceived as OP.
Caveat personally I do feel Marauder needs a tweak but not a major nerf.
As a few have mentioned not everyone is playing it the way to meta min/max headshots/coring/heat damage shutdown with infernos (which is possibly more of an anomaly IMO).

 

[Jolly Joker]

I checked the math again and I had one 3 too many. The prob not to headcap is 64/729 + 128/2187 = 192/2187 +128/2187 = 320/2187 = 14.63%
Which means, the headcapping prob isn't 95%, it's 85%. Sorry for that.
the NOTheadHITTING prob is 128/2187 = 6%, so the headHITTING prob is 94%.

 

[Kereminde]

There is no "burden of proof" because the math is the math, as in 1+1=2, and the percentage probability value for headcapping isn't 2 out of 7.

Then the demonstration should be easy.

 

[Icewraith]

I checked the math again and I had one 3 too many. The prob not to headcap is 64/729 + 128/2187 = 192/2187 +128/2187 = 320/2187 = 14.63%
Which means, the headcapping prob isn't 95%, it's 85%. Sorry for that.
the NOTheadHITTING prob is 128/2187 = 6%, so the headHITTING prob is 94%.

That might be the probability of something, but it’s not related to headshots. You added 2^6/3^6 + 2^7/3^7? The head hit chance for a volley of 7 weapons at .35 and 3 weapons at .18, assuming 95% to hit, is:

1-(1-.35*.95)^7*(1-.18*.95)^3
Or 96.6%.

Now that’s just 1- probability of all weapons in the volley missing.

The kill chance is trickier (you need, depending on the DR, 2 or 3 hits, see previous post for dice pool equivalents) which is why people turn to excel for the binomial distribution function. The usual, hand calculator semi-friendly version calculates exact probabilities, but the probability that exactly two weapons will hit the head is very, very different from the probability that at least two weapons will hit the head.

If you want the dice version without worrying about ultras or DR, roll 7d6. Any individual die result of 5 or 6 is a successful head hit, and any 2 or more successes is a kill in the Marauder. In a normal mech, success is on a 6 only. For more details, see previous post.

(For ultras, add 3d6, success on a 6 for the Marauder and 3d10, success on a 6 (or 10 if you prefer) for other mechs/no quirk Marauder.)

 

[Doctor Machete]

The kill chance is trickier (you need, depending on the DR, 2 or 3 hits, see previous post for dice pool equivalents) which is why people turn to excel for the binomial distribution function. The usual, hand calculator semi-friendly version calculates exact probabilities, but the probability that exactly two weapons will hit the head is very, very different from the probability that at least two weapons will hit the head.

Yep, cannot post the link but if you search for ´cumulative binomial online calculator´ the first result should do, enter 0.35, 7, 2 and you'll get the chances for exactly two hits, less than two hits, ... The last one would be the one we are looking for, which is at least two hits.

 

[Kereminde]

Yep, cannot post the link but if you search for ´cumulative binomial online calculator´ the first result should do, enter 0.35, 7, 2 and you'll get the chances for exactly two hits, less than two hits, ... The last one would be the one we are looking for, which is at least two hits.

Correcting the math: It's not 0.35, it's 0.3325. 95% chance to hit, 35% chance to hit the head. (At best,it can be as low as 33%.)

 

[Doctor Machete]

Correcting the math: It's not 0.35, it's 0.3325. 95% chance to hit, 35% chance to hit the head. (At best,it can be as low as 33%.)

Sure, if you don't mind another correction and you'd like a more accurate value, assuming 95% base chance with roll correction taken into account the chance is ~0.340576...

 

[Kereminde]

Sure, if you don't mind another correction and you'd like a more accurate value, assuming 95% base chance with roll correction taken into account the chance is ~0.340576...

Explain the "roll correction" thing, please? That's a new one. Far as I was aware the 95% is accurate, since it wouldn't go over that amount?

 

[Doctor Machete]

Explain the "roll correction" thing, please? That's a new one. Far as I was aware the 95% is accurate, since it wouldn't go over that amount?

It is not. There is some RNG manipulation under the hood. Pretty much all games do this kind of thing to some extent. And the usual reason is to keep the player engaged (many FPS reduce chance of the opponents to hit you when you have low health, like the original Doom for example) or to comply with the player expectations, because when you have low chances most people expect to fail almost every time and will be very annoyed if they miss a few shots when having high chances.

And this is what chance does in this game. At 50% is accurate, bellow that the real chance is lower than what the UI shows and above 50% is greater than shown. The maximum difference between real and UI values happen at 25% and 75% respectively. For that there is a formula you can extract from the AIM mod from Nexus Mods (which is open source) which was used to show real chances in the UI, so I can apply it to my number crunching.

So with a 100% to hit the chance for the head would be ~0.3506... and a 95% base chance is approx ~0.97127... base chance, not 0.95.

There is also Miss Breaker, which each time you (not the AI) miss a hit you get a small bonus for the next, and it stacks until one of the hit lands, then it resets. I don't have it implemented because the effect is so small I don't care about it.

 

[ronhatch]

Two called shots per turn is just broken, regardless of where you are aiming.

The max resolve points you can generate per round without killing anything is 40 (35+5 from very rare cockpit with the latest updates), so you can only do multiple precisions per round storing the points up and that makes sense and a reason to build them.

The stated max resolve per round is 40, but the reality is that the game accelerates resolve gain the longer a mission goes on and it's easy to have the bar fill at the start of every turn if you're a patient player.

I frequently spend 90 resolve for 3 precision shots on the same turn, and in the early game that doesn't always result in a kill... I then get all 90 resolve back at the start of the next turn.

 

[Doctor Machete]

The stated max resolve per round is 40, but the reality is that the game accelerates resolve gain the longer a mission goes on and it's easy to have the bar fill at the start of every turn if you're a patient player.

I haven't seen that, and when I solo very often my missions can take between 25-32 turns. If that was the case the last turns I'd have Vigilance + PS every single turn, and sometimes I run away to refill my morale bar (and perhaps cooling down) if I'm not quite sure I can drop one foe safely to get some extra morale.

 

[Timaeus]

Explain the "roll correction" thing, please? That's a new one. Far as I was aware the 95% is accurate, since it wouldn't go over that amount?

Doctor Machete does a good job of explaining it, but this bit from the BATTLETECH mod AIM adds a bit to it also.

Adjust Roll Correction

Setting: RollCorrectionStrength (0.0 to 2.0, default 0.5)

It is no secret that the game fudge all hit rolls, called a "correction". As a result, real hit chances are shifted away from 50%, for example 75% becomes 84% while 25% becomes 16%. This can create a rift between what you see and what you get, especially on low chance shots.

Spoiler: HBS real hit chance

https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...pany_commander.1099514/page-109#post-24462539

There are also streak_breakers for continuous bad rolls.

These are done to adjust for human perception bias in regards to probabilities, which we are notoriously bad with, so things more closely match what average players generally think is supposed to happen rather than what really can happen (even with a pseudo randomness we get from computers).

 

[Jolly Joker]

That might be the probability of something, but it’s not related to headshots. You added 2^6/3^6 + 2^7/3^7? The head hit chance for a volley of 7 weapons at .35 and 3 weapons at .18, assuming 95% to hit, is:

Well, there are no 3 weapons with 18%, at least none that I know of. The assumption is 7 weapons (4 pre-HM energy, 3 ballistic), all with at least 35 damage. That means 7 regular weapons fire. The chance you have to compute is the chance that less than 2 hit, which is the chance that 0 hit and the chance that just 1 hit which is 2^6/3/6 + 2^7/3^7, which is roundabout 15%, leaving 85% for a headCAPPING.
Are there any additional rules I don't know of?

Anyway - I didn't mod the Marauder chances because I was so impressed by the guy who managed to single-mech a high-skull mission; I modded it, because when I got my first Marauder (house rule: I keep only one of each mech model), I equipped it with an UAC5, a Snub PPC, 3 ML and an LBX2 (all various plus weapons) + 2 MGs and I think it failed ONCE to destroy a Mech's head when I aimed at it (although the LBX is not the right weapon; an AC/2 would work even better), which simply makes the game silly.
The solution FOR ME is, not to put the Mech away or whatever, but to mod the headshot probability down to something that might be successful, but might also fail (basically what Kereminde says: that you CANNOT rely on it). On the other hand, a Called shot to the head will always hit the head with that array of weapons, and so at least produce an injury. A second called shot to the head will quite probably finish the job.

The thing is, that many missions don't work that way that you can pick targets and shoot them in the head A COUPLE OF TIMES (when you have a very high probability to finish a mech with one shot, the game is way simpler), but instead have priorities (like, hitting every enemy mech in order to avoid them shooting at convoy vehicles or buildings, for example).
In other words, the headcapping probability has to go down to a point where you cannot really RELY on a one shot success and in fact the probability becomes LESS than 50% (this is what Kereminde says is alreadyy the case, but is not).

If you take 20% (for ease of math) and the same mech, you are at 4^6/5^6 + 4^7/5^7 for not headcapping, leaving 53%. At 25% it would be at 69%

Now, this probability WOULD be right, if there were no such things as single weapon hit probability or cover and bulwark and so on. The actual weapon to hit probability is never 100%, and sometimes a weapon may have lower prob like 70%. (If you have a headshot prob of 35%, but the actual weapon to-hit prob is just 50%, for example, due to some pips on the target, then the actual prob goes down). Or there is a damage deduction due to cover/bulwark and so on, so that 2 head hits won't be enough. So the ACTUAL chances to headcap a mech are a lot more situational and generally lower than that theoretical ideal value (for a mech standing in the open, unmoving).

On the other hand, a Called Shot to the head will, if there is a hit (and when you fire with enough things there will always be some kind of hit), there is also an injury, plus the CS will reduce initiative of the Mech by 1(!). In addition, the shots not hitting the head will hit something else - CT, LT, RT, whatever.

The other option is Vigilance, which will give a Mech +1 init plus additional cover and remove all stability damage.

This is also a very powerful option, and the thing is, if you just have a certain probability to decapitate a Mech (and therefore solve a problem terminally), Vigilance is oftentimes a better place to spend morale on - when there is no cover, for example. Or when you have an unsteady mech. Or when you have a mech with partially shorn armor. Or even when you face a lot of enemies.

The bottom line is, that for me, the 23% work. I could change the setup of the Marauder, but the LBX2++ is a pretty fine weapon with nearly no heat, and I don't care. When I use Precision Shot with the Marauder, I still aim to the head, but I do it not because I expect to kill it immediately, which means, I'll be satisfied with the result no matter what, otherwise I don't (or I must be really desperate).

From a gaming perspective, headcapping a mech with a single salvo should be still a delightfully rare thing, not an expected event.

 

[Orbitone]

The stated max resolve per round is 40, but the reality is that the game accelerates resolve gain the longer a mission goes on and it's easy to have the bar fill at the start of every turn if you're a patient player.

I frequently spend 90 resolve for 3 precision shots on the same turn, and in the early game that doesn't always result in a kill... I then get all 90 resolve back at the start of the next turn.

It never behaves that way for me in any of my games even with multiple re-installs, always 35 or 40 resolve points per turn, something is strange if it is breaking that and giving you 90 resolve next round or even an extra 60 start of next round, which would be game breakers to some extent.

But like you I tend to let it build because it makes tactical sense.
But you have to allow it to build to attain 90 resolve, that would be at least 2 rounds plus a kill without using Precision Strike.
It is still 40 resolve points per rounds, add a kill and sure that adds another 10. But the point is it is not self sustaining to be a precision strike every round, which is the important aspect.

The debate whether it should be allowed to increment each round is something no-one in this thread has touched upon, but I think the majority would agree let it increment as it should be part of the tactical advantage on deciding whether to use it that round or let it build.
Part of this also comes back to cost like I mentioned but some do not seem to be happy about the concept of an active button Called Shot Mastery costing say 40 resolve points as was down-voted so that type of change is not popular anyway.

Maybe a subtle change should be using Precision Shot that kills does not give the +10 resolve points, it is not a big change and helps a little in the balance for resolve point cycle if it bothers some.

Edit:
Just realised you mention it gives you extra 90 resolve points next round, so just commented about it in beginning of my post.

 

[ronhatch]

I haven't seen that, and when I solo very often my missions can take between 25-32 turns. If that was the case the last turns I'd have Vigilance + PS every single turn, and sometimes I run away to refill my morale bar (and perhaps cooling down) if I'm not quite sure I can drop one foe safely to get some extra morale.

Same I tend to let it build because it makes tactical sense.
But you have to allow it to build to attain 90 resolve, that would be at least 2 rounds plus a kill without using Precision Strike.
It is still 40 resolve points per rounds, add a kill and sure that adds another 10. But the point is it is not self sustaining to be a precision strike every round, which is the important aspect.

I don't know if it's a bug triggered by a mod I'm using or something a mod y'all are using turned off... but on my system, I know for a fact that it fills the resolve bar every single turn. There is absolutely no question, since it even shows "+90" above the bar at the start of the turn.

 

[Orbitone]

I don't know if it's a bug triggered by a mod I'm using or something a mod y'all are using turned off... but on my system, I know for a fact that it fills the resolve bar every single turn. There is absolutely no question, since it even shows "+90" above the bar at the start of the turn.

I have had to do 3 re-installs as I had a bug involving the Campaign and global difficulty milestones with HM, no mods my case and in everyone the resolve points worked as described even in my current game where I did a detailed manual clean uninstall and install (campaign working properly now woot).
Might be worth checking something because I could imagine that is taking some of the fun out of the game for you.

 

[Orbitone]

Well, there are no 3 weapons with 18%, at least none that I know of. The assumption is 7 weapons (4 pre-HM energy, 3 ballistic), all with at least 35 damage. That means 7 regular weapons fire. The chance you have to compute is the chance that less than 2 hit, which is the chance that 0 hit and the chance that just 1 hit which is 2^6/3/6 + 2^7/3^7, which is roundabout 15%, leaving 85% for a headCAPPING.
Are there any additional rules I don't know of?

Anyway - I didn't mod the Marauder chances because I was so impressed by the guy who managed to single-mech a high-skull mission; I modded it, because when I got my first Marauder (house rule: I keep only one of each mech model), I equipped it with an UAC5, a Snub PPC, 3 ML and an LBX2 (all various plus weapons) + 2 MGs and I think it failed ONCE to destroy a Mech's head when I aimed at it (although the LBX is not the right weapon; an AC/2 would work even better), which simply makes the game silly.
The solution FOR ME is, not to put the Mech away or whatever, but to mod the headshot probability down to something that might be successful, but might also fail (basically what Kereminde says: that you CANNOT rely on it). On the other hand, a Called shot to the head will always hit the head with that array of weapons, and so at least produce an injury. A second called shot to the head will quite probably finish the job.

The thing is, that many missions don't work that way that you can pick targets and shoot them in the head A COUPLE OF TIMES (when you have a very high probability to finish a mech with one shot, the game is way simpler), but instead have priorities (like, hitting every enemy mech in order to avoid them shooting at convoy vehicles or buildings, for example).
In other words, the headcapping probability has to go down to a point where you cannot really RELY on a one shot success and in fact the probability becomes LESS than 50% (this is what Kereminde says is alreadyy the case, but is not).

If you take 20% (for ease of math) and the same mech, you are at 4^6/5^6 + 4^7/5^7 for not headcapping, leaving 53%. At 25% it would be at 69%

The thing is this is your experience on how you want to play the Marauder, others may not use UAC or Snub PPC (not ideal headshot I agree) or even lostech ++.
In some ways it would be like saying the Lostech Griffin is OP because it is extremely viable to load up on Inferno++ as a 1st strike in the late game.
Is that really the fault of the 2N Griffin design as implemented (no quirk but works well in this context because of other factors) or the weapon and just the way some people want to play.

If Marauder was 30-33% location hit using more traditional weapons keeping even lostech ++ out of this it becomes unreliable 1 precision shot lethal head killer.
I mean an ER Medium laser++ is equivalent to a freaking LL+ for damage without the tonnage balance and enough range to compliment UACs (no weight balance relative to other weapons and also 2 shots) or other weapons with late mechwarriors and the -90m minimum range.

Could you imagine how unfun Borderlands 2 would had been if they kept balancing to stop everyone from soloing the 'raid' bosses they created (something I used to do myself as it was a fun meta challenge between grinding for the perfect weapons/skills of the class/approach); it made the rest of the game trivial with those setups but it is not something I would not want changed if it affected other players different game play approaches.

Which is why discussing this not just one approach of playing has to be considered, unless possibly this then became a discussion about PvP skirmish but it is impossible to balance the game correctly anyway
Unless just changing your own game, which I would say quite a few of us do in a similar fashion to you.

 

[Kereminde]

From a gaming perspective, headcapping a mech with a single salvo should be still a delightfully rare thing, not an expected event.

I'd extend that to "exploding a 'Mech of similar or higher weight class in a single salvo should be a moderately rare occurrence, not the rule". Things such as "AC/20s into the rear" and ammo explosions notwithstanding. On the other hand . . . CBT went a similar route by the 3050s, which is why so many tend to get a sour expression when discussing it.

Anyway, I still present the opinions... the ones relative to the discussion anyway:

- Given headcaps, and other "quick time-to-kill" builds are explored and sought out for how to ... basically not play the tactical game, and just find a way to turn contracts into easy funding? I'd say there's ample ... suggestive evidence players are trying to find ways to circumvent actually playing the game.

- The "Marauder headcap machine" is an outlier only when outfitted specifically for it. This places the onus of such abuse on the player, not the game. If the chance bonus was lowered, people would still flock to it for it being more efficient. If the hardpoints were reduced (stripping out the excess two Ballistic) it would likely "tame" the problem, at the cost of curtailing player freedom. If Precision Shot was simply disallowed to hit the head, then the Marauder would be tuned into coring a 'Mech outright... which a number of other chassis can do as efficiently, if not more. The solution is, perhaps, simply to "fix" the Resolve-based skill.

- If the OpFors could, and would, execute Precision Shots this argument/discussion would be far more interesting. As it is, handing the player this sort of edge - on top of allowing exceedingly customized 'Mechs - is another source of the issue.

- Missions really should be designed to have "kill everything which moves and isn't an ally" not be an alternative automatic win condition. This is, naturally, drifting into a tangent which has been discussed since release. (And resulted in "Target Acquisition" missions, which I haven't seen many people do much defending of.)

 

[Orbitone]

With the new store option coming in the next update and who knows what else.
Does it make sense to do anything at all apart from possibly minor adjustments (minor being such as 5% or comparable changes like that in other ways/mechanisms) if talking about mechs and weapons.

 

[Jolly Joker]

@Orbitone

I've tried to show that you can outfit a Marauder with conventional weapons to make it a reliable headcapper, no problem. And no matter what other mechs can do in that regard, the fact that the Marauder has double the probability than every other Mech makes it a lot better in that regard than, say, a Grasshopper and any other Mech that can field as many or even more comparable weapons. I mean, with such a quirk the Mech is SUPPOSED to, as an Assassin is supposed to be a hunter of Light Mechs.
So the fact as such is not wrong - I'm not arguing against it within the context of the game. Face a Marauder, allow the Opfor to knockdown one of your Mechs and target it with a Marauder, and you can forget that mech, headcapping or not. I just think that the percentage bonus is too big. After all, it's over and above a 10% damage reduction for the whole lance which has its own advantages. It shouldn't be that big an issue. (Of course it's not the only issue; Snub PPCs getting +67% damage increase and so on could also be discussed.)
Also, you don't need the Griffin 2N to load up on Infernos. I've two of the 3 Thunderbolt variants running with Infernos and Flamers, and they work fine, especially in hot biomes. (This is different for the Marauder - there is no other Mech that comes with a quirk like that.)

Apart from that, this thread is titled, Is Headcapping too powerful?, and I just put forth my opinion, no, it's not, but the Marauder's ability to do that is indeed, and pretty ridiculously so.

@Kereminde

The "Marauder headcap machine" is an outlier only when outfitted specifically for it. This places the onus of such abuse on the player, not the game. If the chance bonus was lowered, people would still flock to it for it being more efficient.

I disagree with this. The quirk of the Marauder makes it clear that it's a Mech excelling in "Called Shots" - it's supposed to work that way. Aiming called shots to the head is just a matter of the probability involved to actually "succeed", nothing else, and compared with the probability to eliminate a Mech from the equation by targetting something different. For example, when you face a Hunchback, it might actually play to just destroy the RT and let it stumble around on 3 Init than to outright destroy it.

The actual issue is - imo - actually quite simple. If the probability of a headshot isn't compelling, people may still equip the Mech accordingly (because that makes sense), but actually Calling for headshots still needs luck. Not as much luck as with other mechs, but still luck. And using the morale points with a primary view on Marauder Called Shots loses attraction.

That's all.