Don't get me wrong. I'm not the biggest fan of cavalry. Late game compositions don't have cavalry at all, or at most 2 stacks (but usually I'm using 20/0/20 stacks). I was just saying that early game they have some use. And considering we're all playing the early game again and again, and quitting at the mid to endgame, it's quite important.
Also, cavalry is specifically useful when fighting with MORE troops than your opponent. So comparing 20/0 vs 16/4 is missing my point. See the post of
@Miganto who made the same argument as I did, only better. Compare a 10/0/0 stack vs a 10/2/0 stack and you can easily see a big difference. I'm not planning on battling even sized armies at the early game anyway, unless with a tech advantage.
You can say this is a niche situation, but in my experience it's something that happens quite often. Starting as Najd? Cav are quite good. Your neighbours are small and by adding cav you can stackwipe more easily. Starting as a OPM like Mulhouse? Again, cavalry is quite good if your stack is bigger than your opponent's. And you generally want to declare when your stacks are bigger than your opponent's individual stacks. My 10/2/0 stack might not win versus 20/0/0, but it might versus 2 x 10/0/0 if I can engage when they can't reinforce.
Of course I know that sieges win wars, not battles. But it's not like you can always avoid battles, especially if the opponent has more troops combined than you or double as many forts to siege. Specifically fighting as an OPM versus 2 OPMs for example it's wishful thinking you can outsiege your opponent in speed.
My answer to your former post has two parts. The first part is discussing your scenario of 14 vs 10+10.
While the second part starting with "The non-outflanking scenarios are even worse for Cav" are general comments about Cav, not directly connected with that scenario. Sorry, if I have been unclear about that. I might state obvious knowledge, but I am not indicating that you, other posters or any other reader aren't aware of this.
My apologies in advance, if this will happen by my following comments again.
In a OPM vs 2OPM situation it is not good to go for a pure siege race. Agreed. I go for the kill of one army in the first month of the war, as I said before. Then I siege this OPM down. After that I have 2 vs 1 forts and I can go for the siege of the second OPM. If he sits with his 10-stack on his province, I can e.g. ask one of his neighbors for mil access. If I come with my entire army, he will go away and I can siege his fort. If the enemy goes to one of my forts (1 owned, 1 occupied), I can leave a 4-stack behind for the continuation of my siege. With the rest (say a 10-stack) I simply disturb the AI from sieging my forts. So I can avoid a 2nd battle and still win the war by sieges.
For the 20/0 vs 16/4 tests: If I want to test the strength of Cav, I have to negate Cav the advantage of out-flanking. So I have to go to CW, if I do the testing in a non-ironman game and not on paper or in a simulator.
The tests show me that Chevauchée is weaker than Inf and that Western Medi Knights is just a touch stronger than Inf. Sure, a 10/2 stack is stronger than a 10/0 stack. But a 12/0 stack is also stronger than a 10/0 stack. So if it is possible to win a war with a 10/2 army vs two 10/0 armies, it is posssible with a 12/0 as well.
There are more to consider. Your force limit might be lower than combat width early in the game. In that case, you might want to prepare cavalry if you're planning to fight someone also with a small force limit so that you maximize your chances of stack-wiping with tech 4 advantage. And while 20k infantry is easier to satisfy the second condition, 12 vs 10 might not be enough to deplete enemy morale within 12 days. By including 4 cavalries and doing 14 + 6 vs 10, you get much better chances of stackwiping the enemy in your scenario.
It really depends on the situation. Sometimes you can base race the AI, sometimes you have to defeat their army before you can safely siege forts. You can use CW to you advantage while using cavalry, they're not mutually exclusive.
I'm not arguing that cavalry is always useful. There are certain tech levels that favor cavalry more than others and if you happen to be in a tight war with enough money to spare for extra military advantage during those time periods, you might want to consider using cavalry as your main fighting force. Try western tech 11 or 18, cavalry is notably stronger. Yes, it's a small window of opportunity but it's there, it's certainly not never worth it.
In addtion of some of my points above:
FL is a soft cap. In my experience going above FL with pure Inf for a short time and then consolidating down after battles is cheaper than recruiting, maintaining and reinforcing Cav. For the manpower problem early game, that's what Mercs (pure infantry) are for.
In the 20 Inf vs 10 scenario, it is effectively just 12 vs 10. The remaining 8 regiments are just watching, taking morale damage, but ensure the 2:1 superiority. So this (effective) 12 Inf are responsible for taking the enemies morale down. And so they do. Thus if I get the stackwipes with pure Inf, why should I consider hiring Cav to increase chances? More than 100% chance is not possible.
Again it is important to note, I am talking about SP against weak AI. Even at the start of the game I get advantages, like morale from the mission tree, advisor etc. The more the game progresses, the gap gets bigger. Because of growing prestige, AT and PP. After that by better generals etc.
Post Mil Tech 7, I usually get 8 bonus for my sieges. 5 from cannons, 3 from my general. While the AI just manages a bonus of a about 2-4. And leaves sieges completely for no reason, occasionally. So the significance of battles goes down even more at that time and it is way more effective to invest in sieges (= cannons) than in Cav.