Is autotrading more efficient than searching for your own trades?

[Curtis Cook]

I'm trying some practice first turns as Germany in a 1936 campaign. One of the issues that arose was when I was looking at which of my resources was in deficit and which were in surplus. Short on rares and oil, long on energy. So, I arranged potential trading partners by how much oil they had in surplus and tried to make a deal.

Venezuela was very happy to deal with me, but every other nation I tried just said Impossible. I tried big deals, small deals, just buying, buying and selling, dealing with countries with whom I had 0 relationship, 85 and 200 (200 was trying to get rares out of Italy). No deals, no way. The Italy thing really surprised me, as I offered them supplies, which they're very short on. The one thing I didn't try was just selling.

Then I got this response from marxianTJ in another thread: "Germany is an example of such a nation, where building *some* IC is a great idea especially early on, because it will keep your IC going into supply production lower to allow you to maximize your resource trade deals and fully load your resource stockpiles for the wars ahead more quickly. Limited IC building as these types of nations *may* be ok, but it's sort of a "may" as in when windows 98 would say "this *may* cause problems" and then it always invariably did lol. You can easily destroy your economy if you're not careful - lots of older guides for Italy for example suggest building IC, but that can *really* limit Italy's options, because Germany is going to do its level best to buy up all the resources on the planet."

Now, I've tried the autotrading thing on a previous occasion, and the AI had no problems making trades with itself. marxianTJ believes that it's possible (actually likely) that trading can bring Germany to a position of large surplus in every resource. The questian is, "How?" Should I just leave the autotrader to do its thing, or is there some way to trade intelligently myself that I'm missing?

 

[Big Nev]

The short answer is no.

With a little patience, you can tailor your trades to maximise relations with small trades for goods you want (improving relations & reducing the price with each deal) & maximise income with big trades for goods you’re selling.

The AI won’t do this. It will just max-out whatever is available at any given time.

Also, the AI will accept lots of tiny little trades that can eat-up your available freighters. Although this doesn’t bother Germany much as most trade will be over land within Europe, it can be a problem for Japan who really doesn't want to be spending her precious IC on freighters.

BUT…

The AI certainly seems more capable of checking the market and finding the deals. The AI will do in a clock tick what would take us a fruitless ten (or more) minutes.

But if you want efficiency, you have to take the pain.

I think the best way to deal with this is to spend a year or so cultivating relations and profis, then switch on the autotrader and just check up on it from time to time.

 

[Count Blue]

There are two sides to that coin I believe.

If you keep up enough diplo points and you dont mind a little inefficency and you do not have the patience to do it yourself auto trade can be for you.
Specially in the early days of 36 its quite easy to get everything you need by that.

Of course doing it manually will lead to better prices(more small deals), better overall performance (diplo point /trade ratio) and other benefits.

Once war starts autotrade is off the table (in my book).

 

[Big Nev]

...
Once war starts autotrade is off the table (in my book).

Quite right. The AI will just get all your freighters sunk tring to import 0.03 Rares from Haiti.

 

[Phili]

When I play as Germany I set up all my trades manually because you have 2 to 3 months to get it right, after that all the countries with surpluses will have sold out selling to countries with shortfalls and if you're not ready you might as well quit and start again.

Before the clock has started I'll offer as many supplies to the UK, USA and USSR as they will take. Relations with Italy start at 200 so you can't make them any better with small trade deals so I buy as much rares from Italy as they will sell. Buy 12 crude from Romania and only then do I unpause the game.

I make money by selling as much energy to other European nations as I can even if it means going into the Red. Over the next couple of years the AI will cancel enough deals that i'm making a surplus before my stockpile ever gets a chance to run out Also I sell more supplies to the UK, USA and USSR.

Once war starts Germany is self sufficient in nearly everything but rares so with the money I build a stockpile of rares but not all the way to 999999. As Poland and all the other little nations are conquered their surpluses are added to Germany's and anything over 999999 is lost. In late 37 or 38 when my stockpile reaches 90000 I slowly cancel my deals in rares so that I'm only just in surplus and cut some of my trades in supplies so that I can put more IC into production.

In my experience its those first months in 1936 that set up the rest of the game and you really don't want to trust that to the AI.

 

[Curtis Cook]

When I play as Germany I set up all my trades manually because you have 2 to 3 months to get it right, after that all the countries with surpluses will have sold out selling to countries with shortfalls and if you're not ready you might as well quit and start again.

Okay, that's fair, but how do you do it? I tried straight buying rares from Italy and oil from Russia and the U.S., and I tried selling supplies to Russia and Italy, and I tried combining buying and selling with the same countries, and each time my advisers told me not to bother making the offer, because it was "Impossible". I tried big deals and little ones, and that "Impossible" never left the screen. So, how do you make those trades? Just make the offer anyway and hope your advisers are wrong? This was on January 1st, 1936, so all their surplus shouldn't have been tied up already.

 

[marxianTJ]

For most countries, auto-trade isn't really a bad idea unless you notice something really bad happening - the AI can sometimes work itself into a bind. The AI also doesn't stockpile for long wars with a natural shortfall, so if you're a nation that has a natural shortfall in a given area OR you accidentally overbuild IC and end up in the red, you will likely need to try to do some course correction on your own because the AI typically attempts to produce small surpluses in all areas - while a surplus is nice, a small one won't build up quickly, and if you end up at war with no rares incoming, and not enough to feed yourself for 1-2 years, you could be in really bad shape.

On the subject of the AI, one of its greatest downfalls is that it will trade for crude oil and fuel. Despite what the game attempts to model, there is virtually no reason to buy crude or fuel as any nation in the game. Coal ==) oil conversion is too good and not even Tibet will lack oil. However, the AI, like most newer players too, assume that one should buy these things, and will spend quite a lot of money on acquiring them. Humans can even take advantage of this by selling *all* surplus fuel for a huge surplus of cash.

As far as managing trades in the early game:

USA and USSR will almost always buy supplies in large quantities and will also sell most resources in huge quantities.

So as say, Germany, your goal should be to sell them 2-3 massive stocks of supplies, and then begin buying very small amounts of resources until relations are very high and then buy the absolute maximum of metal and rares that you can. That way when you attack them or they declare on you, you'll have a stockpile to last you until they are defeated. Good relations with the US will also delay their entry into the war in many cases.

Germany and Japan will almost always sell a decent quantity of supplies, and Germany will almost always sell coal, and buy metal & rares.

Italy and Netherlands will sell marginal amounts of rares.

Sweden has some metal.

The UK has fairly decent resource income as well and you can *sometimes* get them to trade with you, but the AI tends to be kind of tight with the UK because their resource flow depends upon convoys and so that +/- to stockpiles is fluid unlike almost every other nation and so it tends to opt for declining trade deals.

Almost every other country is traded with basically for diplomatic influence and little else as they lack incomes high enough for large trade deals - Romania could be a case for buying fuel and so on, but since that is not necessary to do, they fall short - though they do have some coal.


Diplomacy: if you want to do something ahistorical, you're going to need to use trade to speed up relations drift (or slow it down as the case may be) and the AI will never attempt to do so.

 

[Curtis Cook]

I'll try that program.

…and it sort of worked. I couldn't sell my supplies or energy to anyone, but the buying part worked. Now I don't know where I'll get the money to pay for all the stuff I'm buying, so I set it to autotrade to try to get me back even. *sigh* Still, I'm ahead of where I was, I think.

 

[Phili]

If the screen tells you a trade is impossible then cancel it and either start again with another deal or wait a few days.
You can't buy or sell more than one commodity in a trade deal.
You can't sell more than 20 supplies in any one trade deal, that seams to be a hard limit.
The amounts you can sell to another nation are limited by that nations ability to pay. Its pointless even trying to sell to a nation with an income of 0.10 or less, all deals will be refused.
Some nations will always be difficult to trade with, but when those nations incomes are in the Red they seam to be more willing to sell.

The US is reluctant to trade until you've made the first 5 or 6 deals and improved your relations with them to about 90. Getting those first deals can be frustrating so I start by offering them supplies and when the US no longer needs supplies I buy rares or crude from them. For some reason the US won't sell metals until after I've improved my relations with them.

The USSR will happily sell you the metals and rares that they have but they don't have enough rares for what Germany needs. Buy it while you can.
The best countries to buy crude from are Romania, USA and Venezuela. The USSR has some but not enough for Germany. Romania was historically Germany's war time supplier and ally.

The UK isn't a willing trade partner to begin with and after the re-occupation of the Rhineland becomes even more difficult so it helps to delay the re-occupation for a few months.

France refuses to trade with Germany no matter what I do. Also it rarely allocates spies to counterintelligence so on day 1 I'll send spies to raise Frances threat. Something I'm reluctant to do this with the UK or USSR until after I've got my trades set up. I'm not entirely sure about this but having France as the biggest threat in Europe might explain some of my results.

 

[Kovax]

Here's a few tips on trade:

You can only sell supplies to a county that has already met its coal, metal, and rares needs. If one of those shows red, they won't buy your supplies. If they're showing a shortage of Coal, sell them some Coal, and later they may buy supplies.

Germany REALLY doesn't need to buy Oil in this game, unless you're planning on an armor and mechanized heavy army. Infantry doesn't use Fuel, and most of your army by far should be Infantry. Building an even remotely historical balance will not run you out of Oil. Your IC capacity allows you to convert a small amount of Coal to Oil, and convert Oil to Fuel, and those can both be bumped up later through techs under the Industry research tab. While playing GER, I've even sold Fuel and Oil in a few games (absurd from a historical standpoint, but sadly true in game).

The AI will buy LOTS of Fuel if you let it, meaning that you'll spend most of your cash to purchase something you can't use, while running critically short of Metal and Rare Materials. Worse, it will dedicate multiple convoys to transporting 0.03 units of Oil or Fuel from distant South America and the Far East, leaving you short of convoys for REAL needs. Basically, the AI is certainly better than not trading at all, but a human can do far more, including using Trade as a weapon. More about that later.

You can usually sell Supplies to the US and Soviet Union during the first month or two, with about a 50-50 chance of success for the US, and nearly guaranteed for the SU. I go for about 15-30 each, depending on how much IC I build, with about 10-20 in the first deal and a few more in small deals after, to boost Relations. Keep trying every 10 days or so. After the first few months, they'll vary between running a huge surplus and a huge deficit, so you'll need to catch them during the right moment. The Netherlands often buys a few supplies later on, after they straighten out their other needs (they may show a shortage of supplies, but won't buy them until they have enough Coal - YOU can sell them that Coal).

Selling Coal as soon as possible to any country that has surplus Metal or Rares and a shortage of Coal has several advantages. First, the initial deal gets you some extra cash when you sell your Coal at the highest price (low Relations means high prices), and the improved Relations from several subsequent sales will then allow you to buy whatever you need at a much lower price than if you bought it immediately. I try to do at least 3 rounds of selling (one big deal, followed by 2-4 smaller ones) before even starting to buy what I need from them.

To make the deal even sweeter, the improved Relations can provide some Political drift on that big diplomatic triangle on the Diplomacy page, meaning that you might be able to keep the Netherlands, Belgium, or a few other countries out of the Allies just on Relations through Trade, without spending any Leadership-expensive Influence points. Just be aware that if you raise Relations OVER 200, the increase is lost, which has nasty implications if several of those deals are ever canceled. I've managed to pull Australia into the Axis in one game, with a combination of Influence and Trade, plus spies to support my own party there. It's not super-powerful, but another useful tool in the player's hands toward the overall objective. The AI will merely buy and sell to prevent shortages.

Once war breaks out, Germany practically MUST cancel its overseas trades, or quickly lose its Convoys to UK raiding. Choose your trade partners accordingly, or be ready to resort to other alternatives once war begins.

 

[Curtis Cook]

Once war breaks out, Germany practically MUST cancel its overseas trades, or quickly lose its Convoys to UK raiding. Choose your trade partners accordingly, or be ready to resort to other alternatives once war begins.

First, I'm assuming that any trades with Netherlands count as overland, not overseas, despite almost all of what they send me coming from Indonesia. Is that correct?

Second, I'm aiming for a German army that's around 40-50% gas-driven by brigade.

Third, many thanks to everyone who responded in this thread.

Phili, thank you for your note about 20 supplies being a hard limit. I assumed the hard limit was the 50 that the slider allows. ( I had already figured out the limit of the trade target's money surplus.)

Kovax, thank you for the note about not being able to sell supplies to a country with deficits in energy, metal or coal.

If anyone else wants to chime in here, feel free, but I hope I've found my answers.

 

[Kovax]

Trades are between capitals, so the Netherlands is "overland" for Germany, despite those supplies originating from Indonesia. Basically, all supply and trade is considered to be to and from your capital (and stored there), so if Japan wants to buy those Indonesian Rare Materials from the Netherlands, they need to set up a convoy to Europe, where those materials will be stacked up 30 feet high and cover several city blocks in Amsterdam.

I normally shoot for about a 20% motorized/mechanized/armored army (slightly less for most minors with less IC and Leadership, considerably higher as an Allied major with limited Manpower): each Army typically consisting of 4 Infantry Corps with 5 Infantry divisions each, and one Motorized Corps with 2-3 Armor divisions and 2-3 motorized divisions. That's already slightly over Germany's historical degree of motorization/mechanization. A more realistic approach would be smaller Corps with only around 3 divisions per.

 

[Curtis Cook]

Twice now I've had replies from Phili show up in my e-mail, but when I click on the link there's no corresponding post here. This is his most recent: "Can I suggest you play the opening six months of the game several times just to play with the trades and nothing else."

That's an excellent suggestion, and I intend to (mostly) follow it. Since I'm constitutionally incapable of leaving a good idea alone, I'll restrict myself to trading, diplomacy and espionage. The intent was that I'm trying to deal with too many things at once, which leads to frustration for at least me, and likely the responders here in the forum, who have been very helpful, but may be nearing the ends of their patiences. Hopefully, if I can get a small section of the game squared away it'll make the rest of my issues more manageable.

I'm going away until Thursday, so at you'll all have that much of a respite. Thanks to everyone for their efforts, both here and in the (too many) other threads.

 

[Phili]

I hadn't finished editing that one and hit "post reply" by mistake so then I deleted it. Sorry.

 

[Kovax]

"Can I suggest you play the opening six months of the game several times just to play with the trades and nothing else."
.......
That's an excellent suggestion, and I intend to (mostly) follow it.

Might I suggest Brazil, Argentina, or Sweden as suitable economic tutorials. Each of them has things it needs, and must do some trading to maintain production at decent levels. You're not forced into a war, so there's no rush to build troops, and you can play around with the economy until the end of the timeline.

Germany is definitely a case of diving into the deep end, but the game provides a lot of tooltips and decisions to make it at least somewhat newbie-friendly. Problem is, you've got to get a handle on EVERYTHING at once, and any mistakes you make in 1936 will probably come back to bite you during Barbarossa in 1941-42.

There's a lot to learn, but I consider it well worth the effort. Once you start to understand how to use all of the tools at your disposal, it's an amazing game. Unfortunately, the tutorials are next to useless, and that's putting it kindly.

 

[GarfunkeL]

Note that AI auto-trade does not stockpile for war as said but it also does not care about your existing stockpile. If you've managed to build a good stockpile that will last years, the auto-trade will still panic if you go red and tries desperately to get the number back to green.

 

[Phili]

I took my own advice and played the opening six months several times and I've noticed one thing that should have been obvious to me. You can't sell a commodity to a nation and then make another trade later to buy it back without cancelling the original trades. This explains why some countries were difficult to trade with in past games.

 

[Palmerdale]

Might I suggest Brazil, Argentina, or Sweden as suitable economic tutorials. Each of them has things it needs, and must do some trading to maintain production at decent levels. You're not forced into a war, so there's no rush to build troops, and you can play around with the economy until the end of the timeline.

Germany is definitely a case of diving into the deep end, but the game provides a lot of tooltips and decisions to make it at least somewhat newbie-friendly. Problem is, you've got to get a handle on EVERYTHING at once, and any mistakes you make in 1936 will probably come back to bite you during Barbarossa in 1941-42.

There's a lot to learn, but I consider it well worth the effort. Once you start to understand how to use all of the tools at your disposal, it's an amazing game. Unfortunately, the tutorials are next to useless, and that's putting it kindly.

Another thing about the tutorial (and wiki and various walk through videos on the internet). A very good number of people have tried to be helpful over the years. Unfortunately, the game version has generally outpaced the advice videos. If you want to use a resource on the internet, make sure it uses the exact same game setup you do, game version, expansions, and mods. You can really get lost trying to follow a specific piece of advice only to discover what the advice suggests was applicable only to the Semper Fi expansion and you're trying to play Their Finest Hour.

I really like Argentina and Brazil. It's actually possible to build a reasonable army to conquer South America with either country, except for the game's interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. Conquering a South American neighbor is easy, keeping the Americans out of your ports is another thing entirely.

 

[Kovax]

Yes, Palmerdale points out the down side of playing a South American country: the US guarantees the territorial integrity of almost every country there not just against outside invaders, but against everyone, including other S. A. countries. Any wars in South America end up with the US intervening, which is NOT a good thing if you're the one trying to take territory. Note that there are a couple of islands which are not guaranteed until the US gets involved against Germany and Japan, otherwise your options are:
- Play it as an economic sim, and don't get into any wars.
- Align to a faction, use spies to increase the Threat of a neighbor with an opposing ideology, and enact the "Prepare for War" decision (if your base IC is below 30).
- Pick on a couple of helpless Caribbean islands before the US adds them to its long list of guarantees.
- Blitz a couple of neighbors, then use your amassed knowledge of the game mechanics to hold the US at bay for the rest of the game, by stacking up defenders in any ports that could support an invasion (not a recommended idea for a beginner - you WILL get stomped).