...it's likely that China is militarily occupied. Resistance should be fierce due to the war crimes committed by the Japanese Army and the general anti-Japanese sentiment at the time.
I'd imagine it would be hard to control all of China judging by how the Japanese occupiers treated Chinese people in general during the war.
By 1950 however, would organized, armed, communist and/or Nationalist resistance still exist? I'd imagine by then that things would gradually calm down, with maybe sporadic revolts here and there amongst workers or peasants.
This could seriously raise dissent across China regardless, making a Japanese player commit troops to China instead of across the Pacific.
Like with western Russia, dissent across militarily-occupied China would create a thorn in the backside of an otherwise mighty Japanese Empire. I don't see a proxy war as too realistic, especially because this would require a sneaking maneuver into Japanese-controlled ports, let alone an intricate smuggling operation across China by the Americans.
As for nuclear weapons, should Japan have them? I know that during the war, Japan really didn't have much in the way of producing A-Bombs. But after, would it be like with the USSR wherein they "discovered" how to make them and eventually got the bomb? A nuclear-armed Japan would basically deter any sort of U.S. meddling in China, especially from an isolationist president such as Dewey.
As for the Soviets, they shouldn't have nukes necessarily seeing as to how they begin in the scenario(weak, isolated, reduced to waging a guerrilla war).
Of course Nazi Germany should possess nukes. Britain shouldn't, but should have them placed on the island sometime early on during the game.
Perhaps after Dewey leaves office after his second term is up, a staunch, more aggressive president should take power in 1952?
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