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kviiri

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So if an "Aristocratic Coup" is not a rebellion, what is it?

Well it starts reasonable. A lot of useless stuff gets delegated on the lesser nobles. You can kick back and relax while they do the minor stuff and focus on the big picture. But since they're effectively helping you out a great deal, they need some extra powers to carry out their duties. At least that's what your loyal councilors told your monarch, and hey, one of them is Duke Decadent III's cousin, so he's got to be good.

And then gradually regrettable decisions start happening, as your monarch becomes increasingly detached from the day-to-day life of their realm. Count Cunning will propose generous liberties to men of noble status, Marquis Marvellous takes control of the treasury to save you the trouble, government posts are extensively granted only to friends and relatives of the friendly nobles...

...and before you know it, you're completely oblivious about what's really happening in your state, the nobles have set up a system of bureaucracy to secure their own interests, even a lowly count has a right to veto royal decisions and the monarch is reduced to a ceremonial post with little political influence. Even if you decide having the little pricks running the country is a bad thing, your army commanders are all affiliated with the lesser nobility and there's little chance of reclaiming your lost powers. But you probably shouldn't worry about all that, because you'll probably get a hefty pension and a comfortable life somewhere out-of-the-way while the true leaders of the country start formalizing their new executive powers.
 
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Pandalicious

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So what happens if estate rebellion is succesfull?

If the Aristocratic Coup Disaster ticks to 100%, and you're not a Noble Republic, your government is coup'd into becoming a Noble Republic, with your current ruler as the head of state. It's an unavoidable consequence of letting the Disaster tick to 100%. Think of it as, well, a bloodless coup, not a rebellion.

When a faction reaches 80% influence or above (though the tooltip only states "above 80%" :(), the Disaster starts ticking at 1% per month, with incrementally higher ticks if their influence rises higher. At 100% influence, the Disaster ticks for 5% per month, which means the Coup will happen quite fast unless you do something drastic, like revoke a lot of the relevant estate's provinces.
As far as I'm aware, you won't get any revolts or rebels from an estate having 80%+ influence, but once that Disaster ticks to 100% and activates, you'll be hit with some nasty modifiers and forced to change your government (with the Aristocratic / Plutocratic Coup but NOT with the Dominance of the Clergy disaster). Atleast with the aristocrats; full disclosure, I haven't tested the other estate coups.

As far as I can tell anyway. :)
 

hunding00

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Trin, while you're here.

There do not seem to be many events associated with Estate Disasters... Is that intended?
It seems kind of lame -- I was hoping to force an early Merchant Republic by letting loyal burghers take over. Instead I got kicked in the nuts, or needed to take a -3 stab hit.