Thanks.I have a spreadsheet set up to guide me in exactly that, I just don't have enough combat experience in game to really judge how well the spreadsheet model matches the combat model. I'll clean it up, send it to you, and open the assumptions and results up for discussion.
If you're having high revolt risk in your capital, you're probably doing something wrong (or you're extremely unlucky with heresies)An excellent guide.
Regarding the suppress revolts mission: there is a significant benefit to that mission not mentioned in your guide. If a province is rebellious, the tax revenue of that province is significantly reduced, which can hurt quite a bit especially if the player is still small and the capital is the main source of income. Suppressing the revolt (using your Marshal) seems to remove the economic hit.
The tax penalty is equal to the revolt risk, so losing out on more than 10% of the tax income from a single province is rare. Probably generally not enough for it to be worth suppressing revolts.