I apologize in advance for this being a very, VERY long update!
The world of August, 1943, was a changed one, with the sudden absence of the British Empire.
By annexing Great Britain, and her Empire, Portugal had taken control of vast swathes of not just the British Isles themselves, but also India, Africa, etc. Most of this had already been under Portuguese control. But India, in particular, was new.
Britain was ruled, for the time being, by a civilian government with the collaboration of the Portuguese occupation armies.
India was a different matter – the British authorities had maintained governance of most of India at the end of the war. But the people of India were always ambivalent toward their colonial status, even more so now that the “British Empire” no longer existed. They were restive, and not altogether welcoming of Portuguese soldiers, without some advance assurance that they would be given their freedom.
Germany kept the portions of India it had already captured. But the rest of India was declared to be under the administrative control of the Portuguese government, based out of Goa, until such time as the independence of India could be arranged.
On the 31st of July, South Africa surrendered, offering a cessation of hostilities if South Africa’s independence could be guaranteed. The situation there, as in India, was complicated. The majority of the population had grown accustomed over the last couple of years to having more independence under Portugal than they had enjoyed previously under the British/Boer rule. Revolts threatened to break out if the country were to be returned to a status quo situation from before the war. And, so, Portugal arranged to oversee a gradual transition of power to a mixed ethnic government which could provide stability as the country integrated. Once done, South Africa was free again.
Germany retained the awkward patches of the Belgian Congo she had taken over on the surrender of Belgium. Negotiations would begin within 6 months to determine how Germany’s former colonies, from before World War I, would be returned to her.
Norway and Denmark chose to surrender to Germany, understanding that to be the most logical path. Germany allowed Norway to continue under the puppet government of Prime Minister Quisling. But Denmark was annexed to the Reich.
Germany still faced off against the USSR. But the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact seemed as strong as ever. It was assumed, among many anti-Communists, that Hitler was simply biding his time, getting his forces up to the task, and would eventually invade the Soviet Union. But others believed Germany was content with the way things had ended up. Certainly, Germany was now a dominant world player, along with the USSR and USA, and perhaps Japan and Portugal, depending who you asked. But was that enough?
In any case, nothing would happen against the Soviets before the divisions Germany had committed to the British Isles were returned. And that could take some time.
The Dutch surrendered on August 4. Portugal annexed their country, but left it open as to whether this was a temporary or permanent arrangement. There was concern that holding onto the Lowlands, proper, might bring us into eventual conflict with Germany, which seemed to desire that land (or the defensive shield offered by their coastline, anyway).
But the East Indies would certainly remain a Portuguese possession. We had fought hard for that territory, and were not giving it up.
France surrendered to Portugal, which annexed it. But the scraps of territory held by the so-called “government of France” were few and far between. This was the Free French government, which controlled virtually nothing. Whereas Vichy France remained independent, and most of European France had been under the direct control of Germany – considered part of the German Empire – since France fell, two years ago.
Canada, where the last vestiges of British resistance to Axis empire remained (remember, New Zealand never joined the war), has already seen a German invasion. And when the British Empire surrendered, so did Newfoundland, and so Portugal had a ready base from which to move...
It took about two weeks for Portugal to get organized and get transports across the Atlantic to protect its new American territory. Not that the Canadians were in any position to go on the offensive – the Germans were keeping them busy, and there was no opportunity to seize the initiative.
But when Portuguese troops came, they began taking the northern shores of the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Please forgive me if I don’t give details. Nothing of any import happened in this war. There is no substance from which to create an entertaining narrative. We took over Canada, and that was it.
The Germans had taken Ottawa and Toronto by mid-September. Portuguese armored cars took Winnipeg in late September, and a Portuguese naval force from the East Indies had already landed in Vancouver on 12 September. Canada surrendered on 28 September.
Canada was allowed to retain its government, but it was a puppet regime. The United States had never seen fit to get involved to direct matters, and so Canada had no choice but to obey.
Then, with breathless and stunned finality, World War II was over. The enemies of the Axis vanquished.
Portugal had won. In some ways, she had won more substantially than had the vaunted German Empire.
Consider….
The state of the Portuguese economy:
I’ll compare September to September, so you can get an idea of these changes. Portugal started the game in January 1936 with only 11 IC. Changes in economic policies brought her up to 29 IC by September 1937, and that had only increased to 31 by September 1939 before Portugal entered the war. As she entered WWII that month, the economy increased to 39 IC.
Portugal had expanded her economy, largely through conquest, to 50 IC by September 1940, and 64 IC by September 1941, more or less stagnating there, increasing only to 67 IC by September 1942. Then, by May of 1943, it was up to 77, and finishing the year 1943 off with a whopping 157 after the annexation of the British Empire and all her holdings.
Keep in mind that, in the Sep. 1 1939 Blitzkrieg scenario, Germany STARTS 1939 with 256 IC.
Consider…
The state of the Portuguese military:
You’ll recall, perhaps (maybe not – I sure didn’t!), how weak the Portuguese military was on the very eve of war, in September 1939 – the force with which she struck out at the French and British colonies. Only 11 infantry brigades (if you consider a division 3 brigades, that’s less than 4 full infantry divisions!), 6 cavalry brigades (2 divisions equivalency), and 24 garrison brigades (8 divisions). Only 1 tactical bomber airwing, only 1 submarine flotilla, 2 destroyer flotillas, and only 3 transport flotillas. That’s SLIM!
Even by the end of the war, Portugal’s military strength was paltry by HOI 3 or major power standards. Her navy, most recently having lost its two cruisers, was reduced to almost nothing (there was a battlecruiser on its way). Four armored car brigades, 2 light armored brigades (built in the final days – they were license-built, as I had no tech for them), 10 horse cavalry, 2 motorized infantry brigades (that’s it!), 50 foot infantry brigades, and 38 brigades of garrison or militia. That’s not much!
Perhaps that will give perspective to those who are urging me on, to attack the USSR!
Consider…
The technology of the Portuguese military….
Remember, most Portuguese techs, even by the 1943 end of the game, were at 1938 levels, according to game standards. In the above screenshot you can see that a Portuguese infantry brigade in 1943 was approximately equal to a German infantry brigade from 1939 (at game start in the Sep 1 Blitzkrieg scenario – obviously most players who start from 1936 have their German infantry brigades at higher tech by 1939). The major difference is that in 1939 German infantry had a toughness of 7 – offensive ability to withstand damage on the advance – whereas Portuguese infantry had only 4. It’s worth noting, though, that I’d advanced my infantry DEFENSIVE tech (defensiveness) to an equal level with the Germans in 1939 – a level of 8 – because defense was my primary research priority.
Further, notice that German CAVALRY techs, in 1939, are better than Portugal’s in 1943, and armored car techs too. Only our Garrison brigades were tougher than the Germans, because that’s where we concentrated our early research. Even at the end of the war, it still seemed rather unremarkable for Portugal to consider building a division from an armored car brigade and two brigades of horse cavalry!
In 1943 we were still using the Ju-86 bombers (mid-1930’s model tech) we started the game with – no time to increase our aviation techs. Of course we also had the license-built Fw-200s and Bf-109s.
Despite absolute naval insuperiority, Portugal’s naval record was pretty impressive. With our tiny navy, we took down an Australian heavy cruiser, three Australian light cruisers, a Royal Navy heavy cruiser, and a bunch of transports and destroyer flotillas. This isn’t counting the convoy losses, and their escorts, which we sunk a lot of.
But then, of course, running with the big dogs in a “real” war isn’t easy on a small, underarmed navy. We lost three heavy cruisers, a light cruiser, and a number of destroyers and transports. We lost at least one submarine flotilla too – perhaps two – but I think those aren’t on this list because they were sunk by convoy escorts over a period of time (that can happen, can’t it? – I can’t remember).
It was through all this amazing struggle that, by the end of 1943, Portugal had achieved all this in partnership with Germany, Italy, and the rest of the Axis Powers. Portugal had regained the respect – perhaps fear? – of the world, and had an empire back – larger than she could have likely imagined possible (next update I’ll show you the extent of the Imperio Novo in more detailed images).
Portugal was easily considered more powerful than Imperial Japan, and more than twice as powerful as Imperial Italy. The Soviet Union was still Germany’s big rival, but other than Germany and the USSR, no power around the world could quite be compared to Portugal. The United States, of course, had more potential power, but it was unrealized, and was not yet a military power – only a tremendous economic power (which had not developed, yet, a military industry because they never had reason to develop one – the US had never become mobilized to help defend the British Empire, perhaps because they were not so threatened by evil Germany as by relatively benign Portugal).
Now, many of you have wondered what will happen with this AAR now, and have expressed concern that I not just “drop it” abruptly. I believe I’ve wrapped it up relatively nicely, considering. Obviously, it’s not the conclusion that we all expect from an AAR – total victory, or the end of the game time, etc. But it’s a good stopping place, I think, and I do not – absolutely cannot imagine – continuing from this point. I consider the gameplay for this AAR concluded. My reasoning???
I’ve detailed the reasons in comments previously, but not all of you might have seen them. So I’ll explain here.
1) I’ve had to kick the German AI into gear before, because they had stagnated, and would not have done anything without my intervention.
2) Portugal isn’t the “leader” of the Axis – neither in theory, nor in fact. Germany is still clearly the driving force of the Axis, whether her AI is working or not.
3) Even if Portugal desired to become the leader of the Axis, she is not capable – as detailed above, Portugal’s military is not in any shape to take on a major power like the Soviet Union toe-to-toe. We’d get slaughtered. Our Manpower in late 1943 is 9 – just 9. Before we took over the British Empire, our Manpower had always hovered between 0 and 3. There is no margin for serious casualties.
4) I’d have to license-build everything – my techs are not in any shape to fight, and they’re too far behind to catch up.
5) I don’t anticipate this AI ever deciding to invade the USSR, nor the USSR ever invading Germany. The AI is asleep, and I would have to just take over Germany to continue. And why bother when I have another AAR – Kriegsgefahr – where I’m at war with the USSR (and perhaps another one soon). It’s just not going to work out.
6) I don’t anticipate Japan ever attacking the USA – it would have happened by now.
7) Without a Japanese attack, and/or a “felt need” to get involved in the war against the Axis, I do not anticipate the US ever becoming involved in the war, against the Axis, against Japan, or against the USSR.
8) Frankly, even if I had a desire to continue this game, and a practical way to overcome these obstacles, this old version of the Vanilla game is just too buggy to be fun anymore. I’ve already suffered from that problem – enough that I quit playing for a while during the invasion of Australia, and only picked it up later because I didn’t want it to die.
So… What I’m going to do is lay out a plausible post-war scenario, and offer it as an Appendix to wrap up this game/AAR in a worthy manner. What will happen to the world shaped by Germany and Portugal in this timeline, after the war ends? That will come sometime in the month of April, 2013, I expect – I’m not in a serious hurry.
I’ll also provide a brief geographical update to show the extent of the Portuguese Empire in 1943. That should come in the next week or so.
Sound good? I hope so! I really do share your concerns that Imperio Novo not end abruptly or incompletely. I hope this will serve to avoid that.
In closing, I just want to say I do really appreciate the support and continued interest of so many over the years since August 2009 when I started this, just after the initial release of HOI 3. You’ve supported me and encouraged me, and kept me going, and I really love it. Thank you very much! It’s been a great experience, and I’m sad to see this come to a close.
That said, there are always other projects. I’m going to be starting gameplay and updates again for Kriegsgefahr. I’m also probably going to pick up Locarno again. I will probably even try to complete the gameplay/AAR for The Die is Cast in EU: Rome. I’ve been updating my EU III Sforza!!! in an attempt to complete it – I expect by summer, if not before, it will be done (it’s currently in about 1750). I’ve even started another V2 AAR – Serenity – playing Japan. If you haven’t seen it, please come over to the V2 forum and say hello!
I’ve also got plans for new projects. I’d love to do a US scenario in V2, and a British Empire game. I have had plans for a long time to do a Cold War scenario in HOI 3 (later expansion – which would you recommend, now that TFH has been checked out?). For many years I’ve entertained the idea of doing an EU 3 narrative AAR. I don’t know where my energies and efforts will go, but I can assure you I’m not going away. I hope you’ll come along with me!
Thanks again for everything. We’ll see you around!
Rensslaer
