I am so tired of this argument. What's the point of calling it historical if everythign that happens is just random. The point is to try to make subtle changes to history and how those over time affects the outcome. What if Carthage beats rome is an intresting enough scenaro without the danes becoming the dominant people of Sweden.
Real history is a complex sequence of events and forgive me for wanting to step into them and make a change at a later date and wanting the world to behave somewhat consistently up until that point. Take Rome for an example, what if the Gracchi had suceeded is a great alternate history, but the Gracchi wont even exist since they were not nobiles at the start of imperator.
This just sounds like you want historical bookmarks, and that you simply find some counterfactuals more interesting than others. I don't feel that "Carthage defeating Rome" is any more likely than "the danes dominating Scandinavia", particularly considering how little we know about that time period in Scandinavia. I also don't believe that a counterfactual being more likely makes it more fun or engaging - quite the opposite.
I don't want to be able to predict what's going to happen every time I start a campaign, with the only variable being the role I choose to play. A game that proceeds along largely historical lines when human players aren't present is a dull game. Perhaps this just means that Paradox should bring back the historical bookmarks they had in CKII, but it certainly doesn't mean that they should start arbitrarily forcing AI down certain paths.
In any case, if what you want is closer to Victoria II then you're not explaining your point very well, because Victoria II has - in my experience - been a weird counterfactual machine.
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