If Life gave Hitler a second chance,what must he do for Germany to gain a favourable outcome in WW2?

[Vukodav]

It is a fact that the Reich was broken in the East so any talk about victory should consider that front and why Germany lost on it.

While having winter equipment (a lot was taken from France as well), Germany did not distribute it when it should. So that is one thing that might have been done.

The other BIG reason was ideology in the East. Had Germany accepted nationalities in the east as allies, a lot of things could be different. There were millions in the Ukraine and Baltic states that did not like USSR one bit and they indeed welcomed the Germans as liberators. Germany treated them as subhumans that lead to great partisan movements in the vital southern supply lines.

With the added manpower, Axis forces in the East would be toe to toe with USSR in that regard. Germans could promise them freedom after the war and later revoke it - not that they cared about the agreements. It would be much easier to deal with some rebels after the war.

Also, Goering's economic plans in the East used plunder tactics without planing a production. So the bread basked of Europe supplied only for a year. The same goes for mines. In short, economic policy in the East was short term policy and the war was a long one.

With a planned exploitation economy, a bigger manpower pool and better and more secure supply lines the things might have gone the different way. As those things were the main problem of Germany during the war, it is easy to think that making those things better would have a great impact on the war in the East.

That is what Hitler might have done. In addition, Japan should not have invaded China (no oil embargo from the USA) and remained as strong military force in Manchuria. That way USSR could nor redeploy fresh divisions skilled and equipped for a winter war from Siberia to Moscow in 1941.

So, to summarize, better economic and social policy in the East for Germany and a Japan threat from the Far East might be enough to break the USSR. After that, the World War would be over and a Cold War would start. In a military sense, Germany did good in the East. The main objective was the destruction of the Red Army and in most operations that was the goal. Even Stalingrad - it was the main transport line from the oil fields (86% of the Soviet oil) to the inner USSR so holding it was an important objective.

Oh, and for those who did not know - The Man in the High Castle series has gone on the air a few days ago - the full season. Look how a world after the Axis victory would look like. I think that Amazon did a wonderful job!

 

[WeissRaben]

1939? Too late. German economy is, at this point, already pretty much terminal - it needs to fight France, it needs to fight the USSR, but it doesn't have the resources to do either. The war can last longer, of course, but all it does is improving the chances of a can o'sunshine being dropped on Berlin.

1936, now... this is different. Some actual economic reforms, unlike the LET'S THROW MONEY INTO PRODUCING WEAPONS that made the German economy a bloated mess IOTL, will do wonders; some better diplomacy won't hurt, either. Of course, this also reduces the economic strength of Germany, and the most probable required step to avoid war with the Allies - not annexing Czechia - means they don't get Czech tanks and tank factories, too. Catch 22, all in all.

 

[Brian Shanahan]

Please, no witty and sarcastic answers to the title (i.e. 'become a painter in Vienna' or 'listen to the generals' ). Don't get too fixated on it. Let this discussion be about hypothetical & valid geostrategic military-political decisions that if you were in Hitler's position of supreme authority in Germany (as many of you will be in HOI4; hello there armchair führers - Sieg HOI ), would choose to survive and 'win' the war or at least, gain favourable settlements out of your opponents. The point of this exercise is to do better than RL Germany did in WW2 (they conquered most of a continent after all, that's got to count, right? ).

Since Podcat has confirmed that HOI4 will have two start dates, let's pick the second starting date for thread purposes: 1st of September 1939. Eve of the invasion of Poland. There's no going back. The Rubicon has been crossed.

What does Germany have to do different this time around to have success in WW2 ? Don't deploy the Wehrmacht to North Africa and the Balkans ? Win the Battle of Britain at all costs, at least for a white peace? Declare war on the USSR later than 1941 and persuade Imperial Japan to attack in the east...or not declare war on them on the first place ? Ignore the USA ?

The start date is 1939. The war has not been decided yet. What to do?

Discuss.



Bonus picture of Hitler wearing a cape. Villian modifier +100

Well considering that the most likely date at which Germany lost WW2 was 30-01-1933, if I were Hitler in Sept 1939, I'd have just stuck the mauser in my gob five and a half years earlier than IRL. Seriously, from my (amateur) interest in and reading of history, the state the German economy and international diplomacy was in by 1939, there was no realistic way that Germany was going to win WW2, they had no strong allies (the USSR was a temporary neutral of convenience who was Hitler's main goal for attacking in the first war), a severely depleted physical ecomony which had been massively and almost fatally damaged by an insane rearmament programme, a financial economy which would be best likened to an eighty year old 60 fag and ten point a day consumer two miles into an ultra-marathon across the Himilaya and an army that was no where near as good, nor as well equipped as its subsequent reputation in the popular mind has it.

Even looking at the invasion of France, that was the million to one chance that just happened to go the right way (unlike in the Discworld, here million to one chances don't work out nine times out of ten), for example Allied spotters not seeing the massive traffic jam in the Ardennes, the French pulling out some of their best units and replacing them with green, under-equipped units just before the Germans hit, and the mass panic the initial breakthrough caused were all three things that if they happened even only slightly differently would have meant stalemate and for Germany, at best, a repeat of 1914. Remember Hitler's invasion plan was in large part a repeat of the Schlieffen one, except that with tanks and planes there was more penetrative power (though, German armaments were still insufficient to push through a determined, and well planned, defence).

PS I always thought Hitler looked a right tit, but with that cape he left the world in no doubt.

 

[Brian Shanahan]

If the UK surrendered, then the US wouldn't have to be called in. Since y'know, the UK left the war.

If the UK was fully occupied by Germany,

How was this going to happen? You've got to remember that Hitler's invasion plan would have seen his troop transports sunk by their escorting destroyers, without either the Senior Service nor the Kriegsmarine having to fire a shot. First of all you've got to transport sufficient men across one of the most turbulent seas in barges that would have capsized in a fresh breeze, which had between no and few experienced crew (and this not even seaworthy crew, just crew that could take the barges up and down the Rhein), then you had the problem of a lack of escorts, as the whole of the German Kriegsmarine couldn't stand up to the Home Fleet (and be sure that the Med and Atlantic fleets would have joined in the fun asap). If the Germans had managed to land, and that's a huge if, they would have been attacking into the teeth of a larger body of men, with superior arms, mechanised, artillery and air support (even with a sucessful landing, the first sign of German tanks and artillery would have been about six weeks after the first landing, most German planes didn't have the reach to offer proper support to a UK invasion), who had the home field advantage and strong defensive positions to really hurt unsupported infantry from.

Frankly, Sea Lion made Barbarossa almost look like a sensible invasion plan. At least with Barbarossa the Wehrmacht could combine its arms effectively and commit the bulk of its forces.

 

[Evan05]

How was this going to happen?

It wasn't. As long as Britain remained the superior naval power, Sea Lion simply couldn't have been pulled off.

 

[AlecSCC]

I have to admit I have quiet enjoyed this thread to date.

Though I do ponder why the overall size of the Royal Navy has an overriding impact on the feasibility of a successful Sea Lion. The application of naval power is more about the ability to project power over large swathes of ocean away from your own borders.

The advantage of naval power to effect zone control effectively disappers with the advances in airpower. With airpower you are able to cover a more localized area very quickly with a direct force and a heavy application to meet local need.

If the Axis were able to effect local air superiority over the channel then it would effectively be "no go" zone for the Royal Navy. Thereby mitigating the size advantage of the Navy.

Also the consideration for the application of airpower and range. Following the fall of France the Axis essentially possess the same advantages as British. Additionally they do not have the disadvantage of having your largest cities and industrial base being the site of the primary battle.

Thanks everybody and I look forward to the further discussion.

 

[Alex_brunius]

Win the Battle of Britain at all costs, at least for a white peace?

Mostly this.

- Make sure to not piss off USA or Soviet.
- Develop landbased anti ship air-power
- Isolate UK with a heavier combined submarine and air blockade
- Work diplomatically to win over Spain/Portugal and use these to cut of Gibraltar and western Mediterranean.
- Force complete surrender of France and seize Vichy + North African French colonies.
- Support Italy militarily and with airpower from French, Spanish and Greece bases so they can secure the Mediterranean.
- Japan attacks the British and French Asian colonies and seizes them swiftly, without declaring war against USA.

- Axis are clear their only war-goal is to end British colonial domination, and Britain totally isolated are forced to surrender all colonies to the Axis and disarm their remaining fleet.


- Wait 10 years. Axis now armed with radar-guided attack-missile Helicopters, nuclear stealth subs and ICBMs the Axis no longer need to fear either Soviet or USA and their massed tank armies.

 

[Super-Soviet]

Become a painter in Vienna and listen to generals over the wireless while painting.

 

[Midden]

Other factors to consider with Sealion:

It's not just invasion day, the Germans needs to supply their invasion by sea for days / weeks.

During this time, what do you think is arriving at Liverpool Docks? Men and supplies from the Empire with not one step back orders - It's not like Churchill gives one hint from History that he would countenance surrender, it's not going to be a cake walk for Germany.

 

[Lamahorse]

Germany's problem in WWII was ultimately manpower and resources. That was something the East had and had Germany arrived into the USSR as genuine liberators; they just might have defeated the USSR. Germany captured millions of Soviet soldiers, of which, I'm sure a sizable number would have been easily convinced to join any Free Russian Army.

However, the concept of a cuddly Germany winning the war in the East is pretty depressing. I don't think that would have lasted too long if the lunatic fringe within the Nazi party got down to business in the newly established satellite states of Eastern Europe.

Now, a Weimar Republic or a Restored German Emperor winning WWII by avenging the humiliation of Versailles; that's interesting.

 

[misterbean]

Become a painter in Vienna and listen to generals over the wireless while painting.

Damn you beat me to it! He's probably the only person in history who could have saved about 50 million people if he had just made an effort at practicing his painting skills before applying to the Vienna academy.

 

[Ixt-zalit]

1. Be ready to cooperate instead of vassalizing. Hitler never respected the interests of his allies, which resulted in poor cooperation and low trust. He caused a hidden rivarly between him and Mussolini, which ended in failed Italian offensives in Africa and Greece.

2. Listen to foreign intelligence and stop gambling so much.

3. Do Yoga.

 

[Alex_brunius]

The advantage of naval power to effect zone control effectively disappers with the advances in airpower. With airpower you are able to cover a more localized area very quickly with a direct force and a heavy application to meet local need.

If the Axis were able to effect local air superiority over the channel then it would effectively be "no go" zone for the Royal Navy. Thereby mitigating the size advantage of the Navy.

While airpower can to some degree dictate where and how enemy naval units can move it's a game of numbers. For airpower to stop a fleet cold in their tracks you need say 100 specialized planes per enemy ship, and you need appropriate weather. Otherwise you need days if not weeks of sustained attacks to grind down a bigger enemy fleet.

The Royal Navy though would only need a few hours to wipe the Channel clean of German Ship and can perform this mission pretty well also at night-time or storm when airpower struggles. And they got 100:eds of Ship + a pride that mean they will fight to the last sailor if London is under threat.

Add to this that RN at the time had probably the worlds most advanced AA system on their ships, and the success chance of a Seelöwe start looking less optimistic even with local airsuperiority.

 

[SonGoku]

September 1939 is far too late to ensure an early German victoy, so therefore I'm going to lay out a plan which should guarantee at least a stalemate with the Allies and a phyricc victory over the USSR.

1) Sack Göring immediately. I mean it. If someone really ruined an entire branch of the Wehrmacht, than it is this lump of fat. Instead of leading the Luftwaffels and having a say in the planning of huge chunks of the economy, Göring should be given a highly decorated post with zero influence. Appoint him to "Chef des Geheimen Kabinettrats" - head of some sort of war cabinet which never met. And Hitler should make it clear: "You can keep Karinhall and your shiny uniforms and I will promote you to Reichsmarschall and all but you will never ever have a say in the course of the war AGAIN. And get your drug addiction under control or else."

2) Sack Ribbentrop. There is one thing this idiot shines and that is being an incompetent fool. Even Hitler realized that in his final days, giving the post to Seyß-Inquart. Actually this is not the worst idead - everyone (!) could be a better diplomat than Brickendrop. Yes, Seyß-Inquart is a staunch Nazi but at least is he reasonable enough to keep a low ideological profile*. Or give this post to Weizsäcker, an experienced and respected diplomat. He may be too young but I think he would have done a decent enough job.

3) Sack Heß as Deputy Führer and give this post to... uh... Göbbels? No. I have other plans with him and he would be far too noisy. Actually this is something Göring could do. Yeah, Göring, enjoy your post with ZERO influence. You still consume drugs? You fat bastard, I warned you... This also means no "Bormann acquiring unhealthy influence".

4) Introduce Speer to the Armaments ministry earlier. This does not mean the removal of Dr. Todt, no, no. Todt will keep his post with Speer as his deputy. And with Göring removed as the head of the Vierjahresplan, this will largely improve the influence of both men in the economy. Given the fact that both are quite good organiziers and adminstrators, it will give the war economy a much needed boost. Also Todt should not travel by plane in early '42. Install Schacht as president of the Reichsbank again. Because, why not.

5) Hitler as the head of state should appoint von Manstein, Guderian or somebody else with exceptional qualities as a military and strategic genius as Oberbefehlshaber der Wehrmacht. Why? Well, the Bohemian Corporal lacks essential skills to lead the Wehrmacht and later - additional to that - the Heer through the course of actions. Somebody else should do it, with Hitler only holding the position formally and only suggest (yes, suggest, no "JAJAJA! Halten bis zum letzten Mann!" or stupid rants) plans, giving the high command something much needed room for their own plans they come up with.

6) Instead of producing consumer goods until well into summer '43 the economic focus should switch to war time production from day 1 on. Hitler should order Todt and Speer to do that. Göbbels could explain why this is needed and swear in the people that the war will be hard, long and exhausting and victory is not a certain thing - but also that Germany will never surrender and give her enemies a hard time.

7) Conquer France slower. Huh? Why? Because this will surely force the UK to increase her efforts to support her battered long time buddy. Churchill stated it that if Hitler conquered France slower he would have had to sacrifice the RAF to save France. So, Hitler should do this, destroying the RAF from a far more favourable position and bringing the Brits to the peacetable as her islands are now only defended by the RN and nothing else and could suffer heavy destruction which Hitler - as generous and benevolent he is. Hahaha, no. - wants to prevent.

OR: make a rush for it as OTL and destroy the BEF at Dunkirk. Really, just rush them.

8) Don't waste time toying around with Yugoslawia and Greece. 6 weeks are a long time and can alter the course of history FOREVER. Hitler should execute Operation Barbarossa as initally schedulded for May '41. Hand out winter equipment to the troops and make it clear that this operation could last well into '42 and the troops should therefore be prepared for one of the coldest winters ever. Also, invite the Japs to the seal clubbing as well. If they refuse, well - then the alliance with them is terminated. If they still go for Pearl Harbour just sit back. It is not worth it. Wait for the US to DOW you, Herr Hitler. Then you're in a much better position and you will have more time to prepare defenses against the might of the USAAF which will surely come and bomb your cities.

9) Instead of producing medium sized bombers which are useless against the UK and have not a real use in the war against the Soviets, switch to multirole-fighters and build A LOT of them. Really, A LOT. They can be used to shoot down bombers and they also can harass tank and infantry columns, giving the Soviets a hard time when they're trying to regroup.

10) No V-weapons at war. They drain too much resources and scientific efforts. Just invest enough into this field to produce anti-air-missiles and unguided air-air rockets.

11) When at war with Russia, form an anti-bolshevic Russian Army. Promise independence to Byelorussia, Ukraine and the Baltics. I'm sure hundreds of thousands POWs will join this 'Liberation Army', unknowingly serving serious Anschluss-related business. Sure, said states should gain independence but their economies will closely... incorporated into Germany's economic system.


* I base this on his behaviour as Reichskommissar of the Netherlands. He prevented pretty much the scorched earth policy Hitler ordered which would have turned the country into a flooded, very unpleasent backwater for decades.

 

[Alex_brunius]

9) Instead of producing medium sized bombers which are useless against the UK and have not a real use in the war against the Soviets, switch to multirole-fighters and build A LOT of them. Really, A LOT. They can be used to shoot down bombers and they also can harass tank and infantry columns, giving the Soviets a hard time when they're trying to regroup.

You mean something like this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_88

( Germany loves their 88s )

 

[WeissRaben]

*snip*

This would, realistically, more or less guarantee an economic meltdown. Throw even more into weapon production, slow down the acquisition of French resources, AND bog down the German army into the rasputitsa? Wow. I'm not sure this will have Germany perform better - if anything, I have a hunch it would be a good thing... for the rest of the world. At best, Germany will collapse. At worst (for Hitler), he will be 'removed' by the army when the economy goes down the drain and the only thing that gave an appearance of normality to the Germans is stripped away.

 

[SonGoku]

This would, realistically, more or less guarantee an economic meltdown. Throw even more into weapon production, slow down the acquisition of French resources, AND bog down the German army into the rasputitsa? Wow. I'm not sure this will have Germany perform better - if anything, I have a hunch it would be a good thing... for the rest of the world. At best, Germany will collapse. At worst (for Hitler), he will be 'removed' by the army when the economy goes down the drain and the only thing that gave an appearance of normality to the Germans is stripped away.

Slower Conquest of France does not mean the resources will not incorporated fast. With Speer and Todt working together - and no Göring who gobbels up all the influence - the factories will produce even more efficient as BOTH have the same aim: maximing the efficiency, reducing cost and manhours, reducing waste, etc, etc.

Churning out more tanks, planes, rifles and the like will not make the army topple Hitler. Why should they? And since gangsters like Bormann** never assume the power they had IOTL, the army will have even less reasons to go full Stauffenberg. They have defeated France with Hitler in charge, something old Willy NEVER was able to accomplish. This time Hitler can capitalize* on this victory even further by NOT investing military resources on the Balkans, alienating Greece and bog down in a guerrilla war in Yugoslawia. All this ate a lot of manpower and equipment the Wehrmacht could better put to use in Russia.

Also have in mind that in a war money does have not the same role as in peace times. It is not even quite that important. Allocation of resources is handled quite differently and Germany - highly indebted even before the war started - was able to hold out 6 years without a proper plan to pay these debts.

Plus: toppling Hitler? The guy who removed Versailles altogether and regained a lot of territory? Seriously? It took 5 years for the resistance to attempt a putsch that might have succeeded. The entire Wehrmacht sweared an oath to serve/protect Hitler, not the german people or the Weimar Republic. That made is so über difficult for the resistance to move to action or gain support within the military.

* Total victory in France means capture the BEF at Dunkirk and force a white peace with the Brits which is not unlikely in such event. Peace with Britain means no stupid Italian HURR DURR moves concerning the Balkan and Egypt.

** Bormann was hated by a lot highranking officers. And I mean; if they have had the chance, they would have likely killed Bormann even before coming to put Hitler to rest.

 

[scroggin]

What does Germany have to do different this time around to have success in WW2 ? Don't deploy the Wehrmacht to North Africa and the Balkans ? Win the Battle of Britain at all costs, at least for a white peace? Declare war on the USSR later than 1941 and persuade Imperial Japan to attack in the east...or not declare war on them on the first place ? Ignore the USA ?

I would say dont even attempt the battle of britain , it was unwinnable because they didnt have the fighter range to domminate all of britain. They should have captured Malta then leaned on franco to join the axis or allow germany to attack Gibraltar from Spain. This would have allowed for sucess in North Africa.

Hitler should have put far more emphasis on fighters and air defence after the capture of France.

War with Russia was unavoidable, if he hadnt attacked Russia stalin would have attacked within a couple years. Putting his best Generals in charge and giving them a free reign to operate would have made sucess in Russia possible.

Declaring war on the USA was dumb, he might have found the USA putting less effort into Europe if he hadn't done that. Siding with china rather than Japan may have kept the USA out of war with Germany, but it requires hindsight to see that.

Hitler should have removed his restrictions limiting the return on investments that war industries were allowed to make. This would have given the incentive for industry to adopt more efficient production methods and would have made it possible to get the sort of investment in industry that they desperately needed. Even Russia's State run industry gave better results than the half capitalist half socialist approach to industry taken by the Nazi's.

 

[Brian Shanahan]

1936, now... this is different. Some actual economic reforms, unlike the LET'S THROW MONEY INTO PRODUCING WEAPONS that made the German economy a bloated mess IOTL, will do wonders; some better diplomacy won't hurt, either. Of course, this also reduces the economic strength of Germany, and the most probable required step to avoid war with the Allies - not annexing Czechia - means they don't get Czech tanks and tank factories, too. Catch 22, all in all.

That would have involved not sacking Schacht in 1935, and, well, Titler was pants at taking criticisms or disagreements.

Though I do ponder why the overall size of the Royal Navy has an overriding impact on the feasibility of a successful Sea Lion. The application of naval power is more about the ability to project power over large swathes of ocean away from your own borders.

Simply put, the Kriegsmarine couldn't stand toe to toe with the Home Fleet, even assuming they had enough seamen to be able to put their whole fleet into theatre (which would have meant that every single crewmember of the transports was a man who'd never even smelt salt water never mind knew how to sail a ship). Then you've got the problem that the backwash from the escorting destroyers (and I'm not making this up) would have literally sunk half the troop transports (remember they were river barges not anywhere near good enough for a Channel transverse) in perfectly calm seas and you can see how much of a facepalm moment going through with Sealion was.

 

[kruezerman]

Can y'all clear something for me? Are we not allowed to speak about you know what at all?

Because Hitler's opinions played a great deal in his delus... er, policies. If he didn't worry about his aggression, and wasn't so trigger happy, it would've played out significantly different.

As for the comparisions between Hitler and He Who Has A Tribble On His Head, it's scary that we can see such parallels, but I hope, I hope, that the situation won't be as terrible. But that's a conversation for another forum.