Defeat is almost certain. USSR was planning to attack Germany in Summer 1941.
Maybe if Hitler hasn't invaded France and UK+France had carried out "Operation Pike" against Baku Oilfields in May 1940 as planned the alliance networks would have changed significantly.
There is no realy evidence (despite what some Nazi apologists would claim) that the Soviets were planning to attack in '41. On the contrary, the deployment of the Soviet army was completely unsuited to an offensive posture (not that it was particularly well suited to a defensive posture either, in fact all it was suited towards was showing off - which was probably intentional).
That's not to say Stalin
never intended to attack Germany, but that such an attack would likely not occur until a couple of years later.
Assuming the goals are: Danzig
If I were him, I would avoid declaring war on Poland (and subsequently starting WW2). I would instead try to get the area through diplomatic means:
- Assuming I have already annexed Austria and Czechoslovakia, I would try to trade the Slovak region for parts of West Prussia. To sweeten the deal I would guarantee a Polish port in Gdynia, and a railroad track to and from there.
- Assuming I have only annexed Austria and the Sudetenland, and promised Neville Chamberlain that I would not claim more territory, I would then begin negotiations with the Allied countries and Poland for a pact against the Soviet Union. I would tell them that I would join an Allied lead coalition against them if necessary, and the only thing I would ask for in return is Danzig (and possibly Czechoslovakia, but that's not really my goal) after we've won the war. Poland would have benefited from such a coalition, since the Commonwealth once ruled over parts of what was Soviet territory, and could thus use that as legitimate claims to the territory.
Assuming the goals are: Danzig, Elsaß
If I were him, I would probably try to convince the UK to a cease-fire as soon as I've got France under my control, by any means necessary. Once that is established, I would call for the establishment of an international diplomatic channel in order to make the cease-fire long lasting and deescalate the war. During this time, I would try to rebuild any destroyed industry and infrastructure, get the economy working in all controlled areas, and make sure that the people are well fed and that my support among the people grow. I would give the controlled areas of France, Belgium and The Netherlands more autonomy if necessary in order to reach that goal. Eventually, this might just lead to a peace treaty, with me coming out better than I began with.
Thing is, his ultimate goal wasn't just Danzig and Elsass. His ultimate goal, as laid out in the so-called Second Book, were to build Germany into a power capable of competing with the US. His belief (and not an unreasonable one - the whole "Jewish conspiracy" side of his beliefs was obvious nuts, but the basic idea of American dominance wasn't) was that none of the old European states could compete with the rising power of America (only Britain with it's Empire had a chance, and even that was already being eclipsed), and would eventually fall under its domination (whether military or economic). As a fervent German nationalist, this was unacceptable to him, so Germany
had to acquire the land and resources to compete. Simply retaking the land of the 2nd Reich wouldn't be enough. Lebensraum was the only way.
Hitler should have continued Gustav Stresemann's old foreign policy and not overly antagonise the Western Allies so much. He apparently gravely overestimated Allied tolerance for his antics.
Specifically, he shouldn't have broken the Munich Agreement. Had he left the rest of Czechoslovakia alone, the West would've been placated while he pursue the return of former German territories from Poland and Lithuania. Western public opinion were largely favourable to uniting the Germans with Germany until he showed his true colours by conquering the decidedly non-German Czech heartlands. Had he not shown his true bellicose colours that way, Poland could not have hoped to resist Germany without Western support.
Once he revised Germany's eastern boundaries, Hitler could've retired and gone down in history as the architect of Germany's great restoration, all without having burn those ridiculous amounts of cash on rearming. Alternatively, given Germany's dominant position in Eastern Europe, and he could've built a coalition to fight his great ideological enemy, the Soviet Union, with either the support or at least non intervention of capitalist West.
While Hitler would certainly have
liked to keep the Western Allies placated, he quite reasonably realised that it wasn't possible if he wanted to achieve his goals of building a "Greater Germany". A Germany with restored borders wasn't enough for him, and to expand as much as he believed neccesary would inevitably bring him into conflict with Britain and France. Not to mention the fact that Germany even by '38
needed war. It's economy was committed to war. It needed the resources and funds that conquest would bring to sustain itself.
Its quite simple, he shouldn't have gotten high on drugs. Go look up "High Hitler" on youtube. He had Parkinson's disease and took a number of drugs like cocaine. These played the biggest role for the heavy defeat that was D-Day especially. How a bunch of people don't know this is beyond me. Otherwise the Nazis didn't use the local population's hatred towards Soviet Union to their advantage. They genocided, imprisoned and enslaved people who would've made easy allies like the Ukrainians. They should've kept attacking the British airfields during the Blitz but instead they switched to cities which allowed the British airforce to recuperate. Should've seized the Suez Canal, and made strong allies in the Middle East to get more oil. Should've gotten Spain into the alliance. Otherwise they should've focused on Leningrad and Moscow and prepared for the winter.
On another note I disagree with plans for establishing a "Commonwealth" from Poland. The Lithuanians hated the poles, they occupied Vilnius and the poles tried to coup d'etat not long before the war to force their annexation. I don't think any Russians/Belorussians would be content either.
Hitler being off his head by D-Day makes very little difference. The war was lost long before then. Your other suggestions might've help Germany somewhat, but they aren't going to be enough to save Germany, given what they were facing. Even winning the Battle of Britain wouldn't have gotten close to beating the UK. Being nicer to Ukranians isn't going to do much about the fact that the Soviets had vastly larger armies than the Germans were capable of beating. Taking Moscow and/or Lenningrad, particularly the former, in '41 might've achieved something, but they had no real chance of doing it.
Fundamentally, Germany lost the war the day Hitler secured his power. His ultimate goals would inevitably bring Germany into conflict with forces that it couldn't defeat, and even well before the war broke out, he had committed Germany onto a path that would lead to such a conflict. For Hitler to "win" he would have to not be Hitler.
