If Life gave Hitler a second chance,what must he do for Germany to gain a favourable outcome in WW2?

[Magnus Imperator Rex]

Please, no witty and sarcastic answers to the title (i.e. 'become a painter in Vienna' or 'listen to the generals' ). Don't get too fixated on it. Let this discussion be about hypothetical & valid geostrategic military-political decisions that if you were in Hitler's position of supreme authority in Germany (as many of you will be in HOI4; hello there armchair führers - Sieg HOI ), would choose to survive and 'win' the war or at least, gain favourable settlements out of your opponents. The point of this exercise is to do better than RL Germany did in WW2 (they conquered most of a continent after all, that's got to count, right? ).

Since Podcat has confirmed that HOI4 will have two start dates, let's pick the second starting date for thread purposes: 1st of September 1939. Eve of the invasion of Poland. There's no going back. The Rubicon has been crossed.

What does Germany have to do different this time around to have success in WW2 ? Don't deploy the Wehrmacht to North Africa and the Balkans ? Win the Battle of Britain at all costs, at least for a white peace? Declare war on the USSR later than 1941 and persuade Imperial Japan to attack in the east...or not declare war on them on the first place ? Ignore the USA ?

The start date is 1939. The war has not been decided yet. What to do?

Discuss.



Bonus picture of Hitler wearing a cape. Villian modifier +100

 

[Luftwafer]

Not be a total nutter?

 

[Kovax]

...or get killed in the first assassination attempt?

Once he drove into Poland, it was only a matter of time until he was defeated. A few right guesses and good insights allowed his generals to get an early "head start" on the opposition, but unless the Allies or Soviets broke under the early pressure, it was only a matter of time before the sheer weight of the opposition came crashing in on Germany. Once the good insights gave out, and his "advice" increasingly turned into just more of the WWI trench warfare mentality, it was over.

 

[that-guy-is-it]

There are several options:

If we assume his Nazism was honest, and he would have stopped his conquests once all German people were under his banner, then we could say one solution would be to negotiate with Poland for the Danzig, either offer to buy it, offer economic aid (due to Germany's boom while the other Majors were still in Depression), or an alliance.

If we looked at him as a conqueror who was BS-ing everyone, then there are other options:

> Form the "Unholy Alliance" with the USSR. In reality, the USSR was offered Axis membership, but a deal was never made. Maybe if he pressed harder and agreed to split the world between Germany, Italy, and Japan, and let the USSR spread the Revolution elsewhere, they might strike a deal and create an alliance capable of destroying the democratic powers of the world.
> Attempt to overthrow democratic governments to break the Allies apart.
> Use Economic influence to weaken the Allies, and to get more minor nations on his side.
> Not invade anything until both Italy and Japan have solved their issues (lack of industrialization and war with China, respectively) before messing up Europe
> Sue for peace before marching on Paris, and make small demands ("let me militarize, let me keep the Danzig", etc). Grow, and attack them again after a few years, when they expect that you are satisfied with the new status quo.

 

[Wyrm]

Abandon his fixation of colonizing the Soviet Union and concentrate on taking revenge on the Allies.

That way he could befriend the Soviets and try not to be a threat to them and focus everything on France and the UK.

You could argue that war with the Soviet Union would be unavoidable even if the ideology was adapted to be more russian friendly since Stalin would not sit idly by and watch Germany take control over most of Europe, but if France and the UK could be defeated, then Germany would be strong enough to hold out in a defensive war against Stalin. Especially since with the UK out of the picture, both Japan and Italy would become stronger.

 

[MarcoRossolini]

The business about listening to his generals is a bit of a myth perpetrated by the Generals themselves. They were at times hardly the leading lights of military planning either.

Once the allies got in gear, Hitler was doomed. At best if he'd made no trouble he'd have been left alone... There's a line of thought that Stalin would've pushed West in the mid-40s. I'm not convinced but if so then Hitler would've been in big trouble with a Red Army fully recovered from purges and fully prepared to go on the offensive...

 

[Evan05]

Listen more to his generals.

 

[Evan05]

The business about listening to his generals is a bit of a myth perpetrated by the Generals themselves. They were at times hardly the leading lights of military planning either.

His generals had tons of more military experience and in retrospect made many times smarter choices then the arrogant Adolf Hitler.

 

[Magnus Imperator Rex]

...or get killed in the first assassination attempt?

Once he drove into Poland, it was only a matter of time until he was defeated. A few right guesses and good insights allowed his generals to get an early "head start" on the opposition, but unless the Allies or Soviets broke under the early pressure, it was only a matter of time before the sheer weight of the opposition came crashing in on Germany.

But in 1939, the course of the war can still go many other ways. It doesn't have to end with a predetermined german defeat. Germany actually won WW2-part I after conquering western Europe. They had not yet declared war on the USSR, the UK was under heavy strain and the United States had not joined the conflict yet. Even up to mid 1941, Germany still has the position of superior strength. Once Barbarossa gets underway, it's a more tricky matter though. Perhaps voluntarily retreat from France, Benelux, Scandinavia and the Balkans in exchange for peace with the Allies and commercial agreements to fuel the nazi war machine against Communist Russia. This would also free up many troops and materiel for the invasion of Russia. One on one, mano a mano, I can see Germany having better chances against the USSR. In this scenario, the US and the Imperial powers will lose interest and probably turn a blind eye to the war on the Eastern Front and perhaps nominally support Germany. If everything goes well, a treaty similar to the Brest-Litovsk could be negotiated with the USSR. If Hitler retires with this legacy, he will be the next Bismarck in german history and new Napoleon in world politics.

Germany did not have to lose like it did. They had great potential but the leadership was too erratic to achieve long term strategic objectives in a stable manner.

 

[LordOfWar16]

He couldnt win. As neutral as the civilian population in the US wanted to be, i doubt that the US gouverment would have let the UK fallen.

Delaying the eastern campaign probably caused its failure in the first place, since the USSR grew stronger every day they waited and gave them time to prepare.

With less restrictive orders for the fighters, which pretty much prevented them from using their advantage and more time before redirecting most of the luftwaffe to the eastern front, they may had won the (air)battle of britian. With that said, it was pretty much impossible for the germans to get sufficient troops over the channel, without very high losses.

More submarines and swaping out the enigma code would have hurt the british supply lines alot, aswell.

In the end you cant really tell what would have won them the war, but in all reality, as soon as the japanese delcared war on the US the war was pretty much over. There was no way that the japanese and/or the germans could outproduce the US and they would definatly loose in an war of attrition.

 

[krieger11b]

His generals had tons of more military experience and in retrospect made many times smarter choices then the arrogant Adolf Hitler.

Not to mention they had prior command experience higher than the level of Corporal


I would say after the planning of the Ardennes Offensive and the glider attack on Fort Eben-Emael and have Goering and Himmler arrested and executed for corruption Hitler then retires. The Allies would be more willing to negotiate without Hitler in charge and none of Goering's bad ideas starting with only using aircraft at Dunkirk. There was not much enthusiasm for Hitler's ministers outside of maybe Himmler. Without Hitler encouraging them to commit national suicide I doubt there would have been a war in the East. With 100% concentration of Germany and all the materials and oil they need from the USSR even the UK resisting will just result in them being kicked out of Africa/Middle East. Not sure about the home island though, even without Hitler's idiocy I don't think Sea Lion was going to work. There were too few U-Boots to sink enough convoys, even with full Luftwaffe support and a crash program in making more still ends up more or less how it did historically where by late 1942 U-Boot hunting by plane and destroyer were getting extremely effective. Even if a non idiotic high command does not declare war on the USA, the USA is still going to build lots of ships for the UK and supplies. The escorting of convoys by US destroyers is likely going to result in war eventually.

 

[Evan05]

He couldnt win. As neutral as the civilian population in the US wanted to be, i doubt that the US gouverment would have let the UK fallen.

Delaying the eastern campaign probably caused its failure in the first place, since the USSR grew stronger every day they waited and gave them time to prepare.

If the UK surrendered, then the US wouldn't have to be called in. Since y'know, the UK left the war.

If the UK was fully occupied by Germany, then the US would have no proper staging ground against Germany. Spain and Portugal weren't fond of the US, and Iceland simply didn't have the infrastructure to support enough American soldiers, tanks, and equipment to land onto mainland Germany and to keep a foothold. Not mentioning if Germany successfully won Operation Barbarossa, Germany could then focus all of her forces on defending the Western front against the US.

 

[LordOfWar16]

If the UK surrendered, then the US wouldn't have to be called in. Since y'know, the UK left the war.

If the UK was fully occupied by Germany, then the US would have no proper staging ground against Germany. Spain and Portugal weren't fond of the US, and Iceland simply didn't have the infrastructure to support enough American soldiers, tanks, and equipment to land onto mainland Germany and to keep a foothold. Not mentioning if Germany successfully won Operation Barbarossa, Germany could then focus all of her forces on defending the Western front against the US.

Yes, but i doubt that the US would have simply watched german troops landing in the UK. I doubt that the germans could have invaded and defeated them in a couple of weeks. Besides that, germany simply didnt had enough ships to execute an propper naval invasion.

 

[Magnus Imperator Rex]

If the UK surrendered, then the US wouldn't have to be called in. Since y'know, the UK left the war.

If the UK was fully occupied by Germany, then the US would have no proper staging ground against Germany. Spain and Portugal weren't fond of the US, and Iceland simply didn't have the infrastructure to support enough American soldiers, tanks, and equipment to land onto mainland Germany and to keep a foothold. Not mentioning if Germany successfully won Operation Barbarossa, Germany could then focus all of her forces on defending the Western front against the US.

Germany doesn't have to conduct a physical invasion like Sealion (not even possible in the first place) to make the UK drop out. Just bomb them for a long time or go peaceful and play the diplomatic card hard and seek some sort of truce/peace. A stalemate against the world's largest empire is not bad, eh ? And it gets even better if it gives you a free hand in the east

This was London in 1940, looks like Germany in 1945.

 

[Evan05]

Yes, but i doubt that the US would have simply watched german troops landing in the UK. I doubt that the germans could have invaded and defeated them in a couple of weeks. Besides that, germany simply didnt had enough ships to execute an propper naval invasion.

It still would've taken time for the US to mobilize. By the time the US could've fully mobilized, the British isles would've fallen, making the high command of the British flee into it's colonies similar to that of France.

And if Germany could never take Britain and vice versa, then eventually public support of the war in Britain would've became so low that eventually Britain would probably just give up.

 

[dav77-b]

There are several options:

If we assume his Nazism was honest, and he would have stopped his conquests once all German people were under his banner, then we could say one solution would be to negotiate with Poland for the Danzig, either offer to buy it, offer economic aid (due to Germany's boom while the other Majors were still in Depression), or an alliance.

If we looked at him as a conqueror who was BS-ing everyone, then there are other options:

> Form the "Unholy Alliance" with the USSR. In reality, the USSR was offered Axis membership, but a deal was never made. Maybe if he pressed harder and agreed to split the world between Germany, Italy, and Japan, and let the USSR spread the Revolution elsewhere, they might strike a deal and create an alliance capable of destroying the democratic powers of the world.
> Attempt to overthrow democratic governments to break the Allies apart.
> Use Economic influence to weaken the Allies, and to get more minor nations on his side.
> Not invade anything until both Italy and Japan have solved their issues (lack of industrialization and war with China, respectively) before messing up Europe
> Sue for peace before marching on Paris, and make small demands ("let me militarize, let me keep the Danzig", etc). Grow, and attack them again after a few years, when they expect that you are satisfied with the new status quo.

You need elsaß, luxembourg, switzerland, south tyrol, austria, sudetenland, eupen, north slesvig, danzig, memel, some bunch of poland to achieve this goal. This requires a war versus France ( and maybe Italy )

 

[Damiani]

Germany doesn't have to conduct a physical invasion like Sealion (not even possible in the first place) to make the UK drop out. Just bomb them for a long time or go peaceful and play the diplomatic card hard and seek some sort of truce/peace. A stalemate against the world's largest empire is not bad, eh ? And it gets even better if it gives you a free hand in the east

This was London in 1940, looks like Germany in 1945.

Under no historical circumstance has any power succumbed to another solely because of bombing. Physical troops are required to secure a victory. Even if the Luftwaffe had conducted a proper air war against Britain (i.e Bombing Oil plants/Factories and not cities) it is questionable to say that they would have forced the British hand. The point of bombing is to soften up the enemy before a physical invasion, not to force a diplomatic truce.

 

[Magnus Imperator Rex]

You need elsaß, luxembourg, switzerland, south tyrol, austria, sudetenland, eupen, north slesvig, danzig, memel, some bunch of poland to achieve this goal. This requires a war versus France ( and maybe Italy )

An only german Greater Reich, would involve wars against Denmark, France, Benelux, Italy, Poland and by connection, the UK & Commonwealth. Lithuania can be pressured

Under no historical circumstance has any power succumbed to another solely because of bombing. Physical troops are required to secure a victory. Even if the Luftwaffe had conducted a proper air war against Britain (i.e Bombing Oil plants/Factories and not cities) it is questionable to say that they would have forced the British hand. The point of bombing is to soften up the enemy before a physical invasion, not to force a diplomatic truce.

Actually, there were many instances where the threat or real act of of mass bombing was used to help pressure an opponent to give in to your demands. We cannot rule it out as ineffective. Being able to deploy an air force en masse against an enemy must surely give you some warscore, right ?

A peace with the UK was not impossible. Germany was just too arrogant and the UK too stubborn. With genuine diplomacy (as in, be ready to hand back most of your recent conquests - they are not yours anyways, just give it back Hitler! ), you could fix those issues.


Like really, would you have sacrificed the world's largest empire for Poland to protect it from Nazism ?

If I was British, I would answer, yes.

But to sacrifice the Empire only to have Poland become a communist soviet puppet after defeating the Nazis ?

Never.

 

[that-guy-is-it]

You need elsaß, luxembourg, switzerland, south tyrol, austria, sudetenland, eupen, north slesvig, danzig, memel, some bunch of poland to achieve this goal. This requires a war versus France ( and maybe Italy )

Good point. Still, I could see some diplomatic negotiations here solving a good deal of these issues. If Hitler had maintained his military strength, he might have been able to negotiate a purchase of his claims in Eastern Europe in exchange for stupid amounts of money and for military protection against the USSR. In Western Europe, he could have tried to get the Allies to calm down about his militarization with this tactic ("Yes, I broke the treaty, but I had to do it! Do you want the Red Army to march on Warsaw and Berlin? Why, they could attack YOU next!") and begin negotiations with Luxembourg for economic aid in exchange for special privileges, and eventually negotiate some form of special annexation. Bear in mind, this would take more or less until the 50's or so. For France, I honestly do not know. Either attempt to but the land in exchange for even more stupid amounts of money and economic aid, or some third option I cannot think of. Of course, if everything else happened as I described, war with France might be a more reasonable option.

 

[rafan]

Get Poland into axis.
1. No war with France and UK at the time.
2. Closer do Moscow
3. 40 aditional divisions (Polish) in that Cavalery that Germany discovered was neded at that front.
4. No Ribentrop-Mołotov pact so Japan most likly wont be making anty agresion pact with Soviets.