Ideological Takeovers

[Joccend]

I was just wondering if you would still need to go through a civil war if the only other ideology in your country is neutral?
Say I start out as Turkey, who is like 90% neutral. Over the next two years, I get Fascist up to 50% and democracy to 0%, so that it's split 50/50 neutral/fascist. Would I still have to fight a civil war against the "neutral" ideology?

 

[frolix42]

I think by default an ideological shift will eventually trigger a 'demands election' event. I'm thinking back to the Civil War DD and the Greek screenshots.

 

[Joccend]

I think by default an ideological shift will eventually trigger a 'demands election' event. I'm thinking back to the Civil War DD and the Greek screenshots.

I didn't see anything about an election in that DD.

 

[Caesar15]

We don't know any specific numbers, but if the party you want in power has enough popularity, you'll just peacefully switch. The exception to this is if you're the U.S, Soviet Union, or Germany, possibly the UK. Their national spirits make it hard for other factions to take power, so it sounds like it will be 100% civil war if you attempt anything there.

 

[frolix42]

I didn't see anything about an election in that DD.

It's more like a reference in an event text to a previous event. That is: "After their request for a referendum was denied..."

Of course, I haven't seen the event hinted at, so it might not exist, but I would agree with you that it should exist for Neutrals and especially Democracies. It's pretty rare for Communists or Fascists to allow a peaceful ideological transition, but it has happened (Gorbachev, Pinochet).

 

[Joccend]

I agree. If a democratic system of some kind is in place, a peaceful takeover should be allowed with enough popularity. Germany was a prime example of this; Hitler tried a takeover and failed, and then simply won by gaining the majority.

 

[Secret Master]

Hitler tried a takeover and failed, and then simply won by gaining the majority.

If by a majority you mean 44% of seats in the Reichtag even with voter intimidation in play, then I guess you can call it that.

 

[Joccend]

If by a majority you mean 44% of seats in the Reichtag even with voter intimidation in play, then I guess you can call it that.

Welcome to representative governments.

 

[henzington]

Well the Catholic Center party voted with them to pass the Enabling act so they had a majority of the seats at least.

 

[Secret Master]

Welcome to representative governments.

Well, winning control of the legislature and having an actual majority are not quite the same thing. I won't say that Hitler failed at parliamentary politics, but when people talk about the Nazis being in the majority, it's not quite true. 44% is not more than half.

But I wouldn't put any real faith in election results in Germany in 1933 anyway. It'd be like saying Secret Master won a majority of votes in the US presidential election if I had the police AND my own personal jackbooted brownshirts patrolling the streets, suppressing other parties, and being a general nuisance. That's not even counting the impact the fire had on the election, or who set it.

 

[frolix42]

These political threads can be inflammatory, so I'll avoid drawing parallels to Donald Trump winning a plurality of 40.2% votes cast in the Republican primary.

I agree. If a democratic system of some kind is in place, a peaceful takeover should be allowed with enough popularity. Germany was a prime example of this; Hitler tried a takeover and failed, and then simply won by gaining the majority.

In 1933 Hitler achieved power by gaining a plurality, not a majority, and by having opponents (SPD + KPD) that refused to coalition against his party. In a way it's only semantics, but German political history shows how having "referendums" in HoI can be extremely complicated.

A timeline:
06 Nov 1932, Nazi party wins 33.09% of the popular vote and 33.56% of Reichstag seats
A majority government can't form, so President von Hindenburg appoints plurality winner Hitler Chancellor of a minority caretaker government on 30 Jan 1933. An election is scheduled for the future date of 05 March 1933, so Hitler might not be Chancellor for very long.
27 Feb 1933, Reichstag is burned down. Things get violent, the 05 Mar election is cancelled. Storm clouds gather.
23 Mar 1933, In order to achieve a quorum, Reichstag President Hermann Goering excludes the KPD in order to pass the Enabling Act.

Well the Catholic Center party voted with them to pass the Enabling act so they had a majority of the seats at least.

True, but I don't think it's accurate to say that a vote for the Catholic Center Party in November 1932 is a vote for Hitler to seize total control of Germany in March 1933. As much as Hitler professed to despise political chicanery, Hitler was skilled at political chicanery.

Anyway, elections on 30 Mar 1933, which is after the passage of Enabling Act. The modern NGO Freedom House would describe them as, at best, "Semi-Free". Nazis still don't win a majority, but with the minor DNVP they have it.
Over the next four months all other political parties are outlawed.

For an in game event to mirror all of that complexity is a tall order. Victoria II's politics are quite a bit more complex than HoI, but even that game couldn't come close to replicating the events surrounding Hitler's seizure of power.

 

[Joccend]

An abstraction would suffice in my eyes

 

[adil3tr]

We don't know any specific numbers, but if the party you want in power has enough popularity, you'll just peacefully switch. The exception to this is if you're the U.S, Soviet Union, or Germany, possibly the UK. Their national spirits make it hard for other factions to take power, so it sounds like it will be 100% civil war if you attempt anything there.

Their example dev diary was greece, which had a civil war, so I think they usually happen, unless maybe in really small states like hungary if the political support is 95%

 

[frolix42]

An abstraction would suffice in my eyes

From the screenshot, Greece has shifted to an overwhelming 77%(!) support for Communists before a civil war triggers. A hypothetical referendum event, which causes peaceful ideological shift could (unrealistically) trigger only after an insurgent faction has +50% support which would avoid awkwardness.

Another factor is that Paradox has placed ideologies behind National Focuses, which gives the player input on the direction they want to take their country. Researching the appropriate focus might allow peaceful transition. I look forward to finding out on 06 June

 

[Surimi]

As I understand it, only majors are guarunteed a civil war when they change ideology. You can see an example of a "bloodless" coup in the WWW finland stream.

 

[adil3tr]

As I understand it, only majors are guarunteed a civil war when they change ideology. You can see an example of a "bloodless" coup in the WWW finland stream.

Hmm... Maybe they changed it. But they've talked a lot about civil wars so maybe civil wars apply to minors if they're stoked from outside.