Icebreaker theory. True or not?

[Dark Knight]

Do not underestimate the impact of Stalin needing to be seen to be right.

Stalin ruled the SU mostly by force of-personality. If another strongman emerged with more credibility and backing (say 'Trokskiy Mark II'), then Stalin could have been deposed as a tyrant (with a whitewash of 'legal' votes in the poliburo, etc).

So, for Stalin to accept and admit that Hitler was about to stab him, he would have had to admit that he was wrong on a fundamental policy decision. That would have served to tend to undermine him, and Stalin was a paranoid SOB. In 1941, the political risk to him to prepare for Hitler's attack may have outweighed the military risk in not doing so.

On the other hand, the invasion of the USSR caused Stalin to enter a state of semi-paralysis and near-breakdown for a number of days, during which he apparently thought that some of the prominent Soviet apparatchiks or generals would depose him in response to the crisis. I think that the preponderance of evidence shows that Stalin had decided, absurdly, that he could trust Hitler more than anyone else and that the state of affairs in Europe made a Nazi invasion of the USSR in 1941 (but not necessarily in 1942) a complete impossibility, a conviction that wasn't shaken even by the repeated warnings from a variety of quarters that a Nazi invasion was imminent.

 

[unmerged(5934)]

I can't agree with you in some aspects, Dark. Stalin's trust was obviously wrong, but not absurd. He, as we all do up to a certain extent, judged others after his own character, and old Iosif was clever, patient and cold. He would never have attacked the Soviet Union before finishing Britain (a very logical idea) and he couldn't believe that Hitler was going to start of his own will a war in two fronts.

But Hitler can have been clever, but certainly he wasn't cold and he didn't have any patience whatsoever...

You could say that Hitler and Stalin did really personify their political systems and ideas. Marxism presented itself as a Science, appealed to reason, glorified logic and believed that given time its victory was unavoidable. Fascism/Nazism appealed to the emotions, glorified will above all things and believed that only fast, violent action could avoid defeat.

 

[unmerged(25153)]

Nice said.

 

[Exel]

I still wouldn't make the connection between Marxism and Stalinism...

 

[unmerged(5934)]

I still wouldn't make the connection between Marxism and Stalinism...

Thorny issue, thorny indeed, but Stalin did certainly consider himself a Marxist.

 

[unmerged(2539)]

On the other hand, the invasion of the USSR caused Stalin to enter a state of semi-paralysis and near-breakdown for a number of days, during which he apparently thought that some of the prominent Soviet apparatchiks or generals would depose him in response to the crisis. I think that the preponderance of evidence shows that Stalin had decided, absurdly, that he could trust Hitler more than anyone else and that the state of affairs in Europe made a Nazi invasion of the USSR in 1941 (but not necessarily in 1942) a complete impossibility, a conviction that wasn't shaken even by the repeated warnings from a variety of quarters that a Nazi invasion was imminent.

True, but does not Communism value the internal enemy as the most dangerous, his caution in acting can just as easily be seen in this light of waiting to see who needed stamping on before making a comitment on what certainly was a worst case scn for stalin.

I also dont think that he had convinced himself that he could trust AH, only that he had convinced himself that it was not logical for AH to stab at point in time, and this certainly shocked his own cult of infailability, there simply was no one else to carry the blame, which was why he loocked over his shoulder to see if the stood behind him, or to replace him.

HB

 

[Dark Knight]

I can't agree with you in some aspects, Dark. Stalin's trust was obviously wrong, but not absurd. He, as we all do up to a certain extent, judged others after his own character, and old Iosif was clever, patient and cold. He would never have attacked the Soviet Union before finishing Britain (a very logical idea) and he couldn't believe that Hitler was going to start of his own will a war in two fronts.

But Hitler can have been clever, but certainly he wasn't cold and he didn't have any patience whatsoever...

Stalin's reasoning that Nazi Germany wouldn't invade in 1941 wasn't absurd, but any trust that he may have had in Hitler certainly was. It was also absurd that he would continue to think this despite the accumulation of evidence showing that the USSR was on the verge of being invaded. Although the long period in which Stalin had been omnipotent within his own country and needed to deal with only imaginary or very weak enemies may have resulted in his not being able to cope well with a serious external threat.

True, but does not Communism value the internal enemy as the most dangerous, his caution in acting can just as easily be seen in this light of waiting to see who needed stamping on before making a comitment on what certainly was a worst case scn for stalin.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Who is it who "needed stamping on"?

I also dont think that he had convinced himself that he could trust AH, only that he had convinced himself that it was not logical for AH to stab at point in time, and this certainly shocked his own cult of infailability, there simply was no one else to carry the blame, which was why he loocked over his shoulder to see if the stood behind him, or to replace him.

I said that he trusted AH "more than anyone else"; it's all relative. But Stalin really does seem to have placed some stock in the guarantees of Hitler.

I agree that the failure and ensuing crisis resulted in Stalin's thinking that he would be deposed until he realised that those in a position to remove him were actually looking to him for leadership.

 

[Exel]

Stalin did certainly consider himself a Marxist.

Maybe. But that doesn't mean that he actually was a Marxist the way Marxism is usually interpreted. His views of the world and himself were, uhm, peculiar. After all, he did nick himself Stalin...

 

[unmerged(18269)]

And Lenin named himself after a river and Kamenev after a rock.
So ?

 

[unmerged(33990)]

After all, he did nick himself Stalin...

What does "Stalin" mean?

 

[Finnish Dragon]

What does "Stalin" mean?

Man of Steel, IIRC.

 

[Exel]

And Lenin named himself after a river and Kamenev after a rock.
So ?

Don't you agree that naming yourself the "Man of Steel" is a bit egoish?

 

[unmerged(18269)]

I think its cool.
Alot cooler than Trostky of Lenin for example.

 

[unmerged(33990)]

Don't you agree that naming yourself the "Man of Steel" is a bit egoish?

Can you say that he wasn't one?

 

[String]

Can you say that he wasn't one?

indeed.. quite a suitable name if you think of that...

 

[unmerged(10416)]

LOL
consider the consequences had both stuck to their bourgeois names... The political theory behind the revolution would now be called Marxism-Ulyanovism and the loathsome totalitarian system that followed would be called Djugashvilism. Impossible, I say.

 

[unmerged(5934)]

Man of Steel, IIRC.

Only 'Steel', I think (but I could be wrong; perhaps 'Steely' would be best? We need a russian)

 

[unmerged(2539)]

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Who is it who "needed stamping on"?.

The more important internal threat, he didnt know who that was, but this was the moment they would strike whoever they were, he waited to see before acting if and who they were. Another example of this is in lennigrad siege when he replaced the mil command when Stalin feared lenningrad would fold, and create a seperate peace. I think your correct when you said he looked to see what those in a posistion to remove him were thinking, finding that they thought he did not require removing and instead looked to him to lead, he then acted with asurance.

HB

 

[unmerged(2833)]

And Lenin named himself after a river and Kamenev after a rock.
So ?

Lena river?

 

[unmerged(9882)]

Kamenev after a rock.

"Stone" is more correctly.

Good English surname