I speak historically. Churchill called ULTRA the "golden hen that makes no noise" because if only it had made noise (aka the Germans had noticed) goodbye advantage ... ironically, as in the link I give, the Italian code WAS NEVER broken, but the Germans blamed the Italians for not using ENIGMA. As you say you need a little luck. If luck turned to the axis, as it had done so far, they would realize that ENIGMA was not so impenetrable. Now, if I remember correctly ENIGMA, it had 4-5 rotors if they had put 7-8 it would have been much more difficult, already with 5 rotors you needed various "machines" with 6 you needed the speed of light (aka the first real computer) obviously these upgrades arrived towards the end of the war (if I remember correctly from 42/43) when the game was over. If instead this had been done since 40 ... luck, dear user is VERY IMPORTANT, one who has lost the best games because of the dice against ... you can also have 20 troops against 1, but if like Xcom even if you have a 99% chance of hitting the target you have bad luck ... (someone who often has lost double / triple units due to this factor due to bad luck speaks to you) you are not going anywhere. For this, I personally avoid games where luck is an important part of the gameplay.
edit: what the user Emperor_napoleon says is right: Luck! What if those Australian soldiers hadn't found the books?