I:R comparative performance with other GSG

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IsaacCAT

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And we are finally on the week of Victoria 3 release. The total 24h peak players for GSG games is 333,290 as expected, the OP chart has been updated accordignly.

The most played GSG list has eight games now, with Victoria 3 taking the top spot with difference. Let's hope that Victoria entice many management games players to the GSG genre and they stay with us. It does not look like the other GSG top games have been severly affected by Victoria 3, but it is only 24h since release.

1666779439562.png

I:R 24h peak players were 463. The number is a bit lower than the average 565.

(I did my part and yesterday I played I:R before the servers made impossible to continue playing, probably because Vic3)
 
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IsaacCAT

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A complete week has passed since the release of Victoria 3 and total 24h peak players for GSG is 309,483. Not a huge increase from the previous weeks average of 300,000 24h peak GSG players.

The eight most played GSG show a significat decrease of Victoria 3 players from the starting peak, something to be expected, but also a decrease of HOI IV players. Maybe those players are now focused in Victoria 3. Stellaris has increased its players probably due to the Halloween event.

1667391490034.png

I:R recovers some of its historical trend players to 492 24h peak players this week.
 
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IsaacCAT

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Two weeks after Victoria 3 has been released and the total 24h peak players of GSG category is down to 265,019, well below the average number of 300,000.

If we look at the seven most played games, we can see a huge weekly decrease of number of players in Victoria 3 (somewhat expected from its peak) but also a weekly decrease in all other GSG. We do not know if this is a trend or a blip but we can confirm that for now the release of Victoria 3 is not bringing new players to the genre:

1667992150600.png

I:R is also down from the average to 473 24h peak players today.
 
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IsaacCAT

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Three weeks after Victoria 3 was released and the total 24h peak players of GSG category is at 295,160 players, back to the average number of 300,000. The recovery to average is consequence of the increase of Civilization VI players thanks to their Leader Pass offer. All things PDX, the best performance is for CK3 and HOI IV, with all the other 8th more played GSG losing players. One could say that some players from VIC3 have came back to CK3 and HOIV:

1668612782527.png

On the other hand, I:R recovers from last week to 494 24h peak players.
 
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IsaacCAT

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Thanks for the stats. I wonder where Victoria 3 will land in let's say 2 months compared to other PDX games.

If we look at past releases, Victoria 3 looks similar to Stellaris, so we can risk and say that VIC3 will stabilize around 10,000 24h peak players after 60 days. This number is also similar to HOIV after 60 days of release.
1668694834773.png
In comparison, I:R had 1,000 24h peak players 60 days after release.
 
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IsaacCAT

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This week total GSG 24h peak players is down to 287,232 players. The CIV VI crazyiness stills goes on and it has clocked 72,599 players. This is a game from 2016 from a long saga of games back to the original 1991 civilization game. The other big 8 (above 10,000 24h peak players) remain stable or lose players. Biggest loses for Victoria 3 (-5,009 players) that seems to follow the same curve as Stellaris at release. We will see if it can hold to the 10,000 24h peak players ranking. The other winner besides Civ VI is Europa Universalis IV (+768).
1669203206217.png
I:R also descends a bit to 472 24peak players (-22).
 
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IsaacCAT

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What is key for Paradox is to determine if the Vicky 3 players won't cannibalise too much on existing games
I have updated the OP (oppening post) with the chart of all GSG 24h peak players with the PDX GSG 24h peak players to compare both trends:
1669457699702.png
It seems that all GSG from PDX have a slightly better trend line than all GSG if we consider the period I started plotting. If new PDX GSG games would cannabalise existing games, the trend line would be flat. We need more time to confirm this. With new GSG from PDX to be announced and published next year, this will be a great experiment to track.
 
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R.Graymarch

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Does the blue line contain all GSG, or just the "Non PDX"? Because I tend to think that two lines where PDX has a total influence on one and a minor on the other could be misleading.
With a "PDX" and a "non PDX" line, we could estimate when the lines will cross, at this pace (I'm almost joking because we have not enough data for this^^ and also I'm not sure that the line represents well the plots)
 
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IsaacCAT

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Does the blue line contain all GSG, or just the "Non PDX"? Because I tend to think that two lines where PDX has a total influence on one and a minor on the other could be misleading.
With a "PDX" and a "non PDX" line, we could estimate when the lines will cross, at this pace (I'm almost joking because we have not enough data for this^^ and also I'm not sure that the line represents well the plots)
Blue line represents all GSG 24h peak players trend including PDX.

Yes, PDX orange trend line influences the blue line, the slopes of both lines are correlated, but can be different as you can see on the chart.

I could separate both lines but then we would not have the total GSG 24h peak players, unless we added both quantities.

What we want to observe is two things:
  • slope for PDX orange line
  • slope for all GSG blue line
Difference on both slopes is enough to gauge PDX performance against the market, even if they will never cross.

The line represents a linear aproximation and is calculated by EXCEL. We could use a non linear aproximation but I do not think it will be better.

I:R 24h Peak players are added to the orange line alongside all GSG from PDX.

PS: I will add the linear equation to the chart to see the slope and R^2 value
1669568839994.png
 
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