In most strategy games, you choose an action and it's either acted upon immediately, or else there's a timer before it happens. Research is like that in a lot of games, where it takes "X" number of research points or days to unlock some bonus. When you activate it, you know that it will take a certain number of game turns or time at the current rate of research before it happens. In reality, you are NEVER certain how long it will take to develop something, even if it seems plausible in theory.
In a few games, like Crusader Kings or EUIII, you don't know when something will occur, but you may know the odds of it happening and that it will AVERAGE out to roughly some given time over enough cases (Mean Time to Happen - MTTTH). The problem with that is that it may NEVER happen in your game if the random number check just doesn't happen to hit the "lucky" number. Then again, it may happen the first day after you select it, which seems unrealistic at the very least.
There are several possible solutions, one of them being to set a random number loosely based on the same values used to calculate that MTTH figure and have it count down from there. For instance, for a value of 1000 time units, it could use a random number from 500 to 1500, count down from there, and it would occur when the counter reaches zero, giving a + or - 50% variation to the result but guaranteeing that it WILL occur. Another possibility is to use MTTH up to the listed mean time, and then begin reducing the MTTH by some increment with the passage of time, making it increasingly more likely to happen after that point. Using the same example, with a MTTH of 1000 time units, if it didn't occur by 1000 time units, the game would then start decreasing the MTTH by 1 each time unit, guaranteeing that it would fire within 2000 time units.
You can improve that from a "realism" perspective by starting with double the MTTH and decrementing it from the start down to some minimum value, making it only half as likely as normal to occur on day one, but several times as likely to occur on or after some minimum cutoff point if it hasn't already occurred, with the mean time still remaining roughly 1000. You can also have events or dedicated efforts slowly but steadily erode or raise the MTTH over time, making things more likely to occur earlier than later, or more likely later than earlier, but still possible at any time. With a little juggling of minimum and maximum values, plus a few modifiers for things which would realistically have affected it, the timing of the event can be set to more realistically mirror whatever the real life conditions were at the time.
Just pointing out that there are several interesting options besides having events occur after exactly 60 days of Fuhrer Manna points, time increments, or the like, without making it totally random as to whether it happens at all. Sometimes, making things MORE complex "under the hood" makes them behave more realistically, without introducing any more visible complication for the player.
I want a more complex game that reacts and behaves realistically according to the events, but I don't necessarily want a COMPLICATED game to have to micromanage. The game itself should handle the complexity, and give me relatively understandable options with at least somewhat realistic consequences. I believe that Paradox is one of the few game companies capable of meeting that challenge.
In a few games, like Crusader Kings or EUIII, you don't know when something will occur, but you may know the odds of it happening and that it will AVERAGE out to roughly some given time over enough cases (Mean Time to Happen - MTTTH). The problem with that is that it may NEVER happen in your game if the random number check just doesn't happen to hit the "lucky" number. Then again, it may happen the first day after you select it, which seems unrealistic at the very least.
There are several possible solutions, one of them being to set a random number loosely based on the same values used to calculate that MTTH figure and have it count down from there. For instance, for a value of 1000 time units, it could use a random number from 500 to 1500, count down from there, and it would occur when the counter reaches zero, giving a + or - 50% variation to the result but guaranteeing that it WILL occur. Another possibility is to use MTTH up to the listed mean time, and then begin reducing the MTTH by some increment with the passage of time, making it increasingly more likely to happen after that point. Using the same example, with a MTTH of 1000 time units, if it didn't occur by 1000 time units, the game would then start decreasing the MTTH by 1 each time unit, guaranteeing that it would fire within 2000 time units.
You can improve that from a "realism" perspective by starting with double the MTTH and decrementing it from the start down to some minimum value, making it only half as likely as normal to occur on day one, but several times as likely to occur on or after some minimum cutoff point if it hasn't already occurred, with the mean time still remaining roughly 1000. You can also have events or dedicated efforts slowly but steadily erode or raise the MTTH over time, making things more likely to occur earlier than later, or more likely later than earlier, but still possible at any time. With a little juggling of minimum and maximum values, plus a few modifiers for things which would realistically have affected it, the timing of the event can be set to more realistically mirror whatever the real life conditions were at the time.
Just pointing out that there are several interesting options besides having events occur after exactly 60 days of Fuhrer Manna points, time increments, or the like, without making it totally random as to whether it happens at all. Sometimes, making things MORE complex "under the hood" makes them behave more realistically, without introducing any more visible complication for the player.
I want a more complex game that reacts and behaves realistically according to the events, but I don't necessarily want a COMPLICATED game to have to micromanage. The game itself should handle the complexity, and give me relatively understandable options with at least somewhat realistic consequences. I believe that Paradox is one of the few game companies capable of meeting that challenge.