With winning the wars, the problem is Hungary dying. You can reliably stop the Ottomans from sieging you down, but Hungary will die before you do unless you go way above FL, get a good general (not likely initially) or Hungary gets smart and figures out how to engage correctly along with you (far easier said than done).
Hungary is just a crappy ally in general because everyone and their mothers has direct access to their capital and it's a level 1 farmland defense.
If you look outside the window to admire a sundown, then look back at the monitor, Hungary already surrendered.
You haven't even declared war and they've already surrendered. Sometimes I don't even need to turn on my PC. I just get a text message saying "Hungary surrendered".
Though there were a few pathing options on every patch so far where you got a good engage pretty much guaranteed.
30%-40% isn't my experience, but you have a chance either way. Too many diplomatic relations is guaranteed to show up, turning +0 if you really need it into -20 no matter what you do.
Reminds me of the introduction of favors tbh. The region got a bit more tricky and some people can't handle it.
On the plus side: Ottos on the current patch are being delayed a ton, which equals it out a bit.
Have you tried allying Poland(no galleys this time

) which rivals Hungary? You are basically next to them thanks to Moldavia
Allying Poland is like eating plastic. Serves you in the short run, but you'll probably die.