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Sunforged General

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I spell it out for you: little would change. Hitler would expect France to not be allied with britain, consider the "weakness of marxism", decide he can take on France, offer guarantees to USSR via MR, get on with it. Maybe start Barbarossa in 1940, because of the winter war results.
If Britain is democratic, its almost guaranteed they will ally with France. Because Britain has guaranteed Belgium since the Treaty of London, and Belgium is the only way Germany can go around the Maginot Line. Well, other than Switzerland, and attacking Switzerland was deemed too difficult even at the height of German power.

I dont see why you think its impossible for the Soviets to honor their Alliance with France, all France has to do is offer better terms than Germany, like say, let the Soviets have gains in Poland and Romania. A small price to pay to defeat the Reich.
 
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Ffire

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I spell it out for you: little would change. Hitler would expect France to not be allied with britain, consider the "weakness of marxism", decide he can take on France, offer guarantees to USSR via MR, get on with it. Maybe start Barbarossa in 1940, because of the winter war results.

I don't think Hitler would decide he can take on France, even if he hated them. In 39 french army was still living on its 1918's reputation, everyone saw them as the best military around the world. Hitler wanted to avoid fighting France as much as possible, and never expected taking them out as fast as they did in 40.
 
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kettyo

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If Britain is democratic, its almost guaranteed they will ally with France

No. From a balance of power viewpoint (the main British viewpoint of the time) a Soviet-French alliance is more of a threat than Germany. So Britain would probably try to stay neutral or even would try to contain the Soviet-French alliance instead of Germany.
 
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Zauberelefant

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If Britain is democratic, its almost guaranteed they will ally with France. Because Britain has guaranteed Belgium since the Treaty of London, and Belgium is the only way Germany can go around the Maginot Line. Well, other than Switzerland, and attacking Switzerland was deemed too difficult even at the height of German power.

I dont see why you think its impossible for the Soviets to honor their Alliance with France, all France has to do is offer better terms than Germany, like say, let the Soviets have gains in Poland and Romania. A small price to pay to defeat the Reich.
That's the point: the french giving Up poland and romania would sort of alienate the british. If Hitler offers poland, Stalin knows that the french would fight the Germans anyway, without him having to.
So, he can just hedge his bets.
 

Vlad123

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Speaking of this scenario, I think the UK would be afraid of an openly Communist France, and would be allied with Germany, because it would be proof that Communism is spreading in Europe, hypothetically in this Communist France scenario, maybe it even sent troops. in France by making Spain Communist, therefore already another companion of alarm. Presumably the UK would revive the centuries-old Anglo-French rivalry (and ended only after the Fashoda episode in 1898, therefore relatively recent) perhaps to "recover the lands lost in the 100 Years War", Italy would join friends Germans and French for the "irident land" and Germany could pass through Belgium with English permission. If France capitulated after 1 month against the Germans, in your opinion, how long does it take to capitulate:
1) without British troops to help them.
2) with the British landing in the north
3) the Italians (this time well prepared) attacking from the south, in Corsica and Tunisia
4) the Germans bypassing the Ardennes while one side stays with the Poles on the Soviet border.
I simply assume the time to enter Paris (two weeks?). France liquidated in record time all against the USSR.
 

kettyo

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@Vlad123 I think we're not talking about an openly communist France here but one that is going to ally with them. Of course in such an alliance France would most probably be the underdog and communist influence could spread much more rapidly so in time France could indeed become a pro-bolshevik communist state itself but it wouldn't go smooth i think as many in France were anti-communist.
 

Harin

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Is it possible that if France had gone communist, or more likely a hard left side of socialism, it would not have been quit like what we saw in the 1930's USSR, but something much more self-centered? I suspect the French people would think of themselves first, such as workers rights, better working conditions, health, etc... Such me-first movements tend to reduce military budgets while social spending goes up dramatically, for years at least. If we present no threat to others then surely no one will attack us, right?

A French experiment with communism would make Europe less stable as this major power left the world stage to deal with its unhappy citizens. It is hard for me to see the French getting stronger from going communist as any such major change in politics tends to create weakness, even if only temporarily. This weakness for France could possibly be the strengthening of communism in other countries, like Spain, the Balkans, US, and the UK as those movements are motivated by success in France. While these other countries may not fall to communism, it would add to their burdens in countering its increasing influence.

A weakened France, might upend the powers that Europe counted on to contain Germany, or any other nation's, appetite for revanchism. The UK in particular might very well feel threatened from the expanding communist threat and see itself as the last major European power that has not lost its mind. It might start looking inward, too. The British Empire had more than a few movements it was dealing with. Seeing France succumb, could make the UK get very serious about its own issues and feeling very much alone.

What would Germany do then? It might feel much more emboldened to do exactly what it did do up until September, 1939. Hitler's confidence that the old Entente would do little to nothing would only be reinforced. The biggest decision would most likely come between, who do they invade first, Poland or France, because neither could be left standing now. Communism was to great a threat to Germany to let it fester at its borders in the west and Poland was unfortunately in the way as it looked east.
 
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Vlad123

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@Vlad123 I think we're not talking about an openly communist France here but one that is going to ally with them. Of course in such an alliance France would most probably be the underdog and communist influence could spread much more rapidly so in time France could indeed become a pro-bolshevik communist state itself but it wouldn't go smooth i think as many in France were anti-communist.
very many officers were either fascists or fascist sympathizers. So I think, they have to do a purge like Stalin's. If not done, a Vichy France could be formed more easily, with much more collaboration. The UK could only do two sensible things:
1) accept the fait accompli as a neutral state and recognize vichy as the only true france (with all france less alsace lorraine and maybe luxembourg, with the german promise to reform belgium).
2) Give Germany permission to pass over Belgium while she lands in the north and take back the territories to the north as a perfect vulture, and then attack the USSR with Germany
 

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No. From a balance of power viewpoint (the main British viewpoint of the time) a Soviet-French alliance is more of a threat than Germany. So Britain would probably try to stay neutral or even would try to contain the Soviet-French alliance instead of Germany.
Britain has no choice but to ally with France if Germany attacks Belgium. And how else will Germany get past the Maginot line without going around it?

By the treaty of London Britain is bound to defend Belgium, it's the reason she fought WWI after all.
 

DystopianAlphaOmega

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We all know how trustworthy are the British when it comes to the deals and guarantees. Ironically, we know that from the context of IRL late Interbellum and WW2.

There’s a difference between abandoning Central/Eastern European nations and abandoning the Low Countries. Leaving a hostile power in control of the Low Countries was long described like leaving a dagger thrust straight towards the heart of Britain (At least since Napoleonic Times, where Towards the end some British diplomat was willing to accept a peace where France kept Belgium and the British Government freaked out). Not to mention much closer trading relations, the issue of colonies, and that Belgium has the same ruling dynasty as the UK. There’s a reason Germany invading Belgium is what caused Britain to immediately jump in WWI.
 

kettyo

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Britain has no choice but to ally with France if Germany attacks Belgium. And how else will Germany get past the Maginot line without going around it?

By the treaty of London Britain is bound to defend Belgium, it's the reason she fought WWI after all.

That's correct but why Germany would attack France in this case?

Even if the British still ally with Poland to protect them - which is far from certain - the French certainly won't as allied to Moscow.
 

Haresus

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If France and the Soviet Union publicly formed an alliance, I can only imagine that the British (and French!) public would be shocked.

I could possibly see the UK stay neutral in a continental conflict where it is France and the Soviet Union united against Germany in 1939, although Belgium complicates matters.

Without a Molotov Ribbentrop Pact, it makes little sense for Hitler to create a land border with a likely hostile Soviet Union while his western flank is open. A German-Polish deal might be more likely, where Germany attacks France first, and Poland promises to not let Soviet troops through their country. A 1939 invasion of France could very well be a disaster, since the German army would not yet have learned the lessons from Poland... Or it could be a success, with the French being even less ready for such an invasion.

The question now boils down to whether Stalin would try to rush to the aid of his ally, likely by invading Poland (which, considering the Winter War, could go very poorly), and if the UK would intervene to protect France and Belgium.
 
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Sunforged General

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If France and the Soviet Union publicly formed an alliance, I can only imagine that the British (and French!) public would be shocked.

I could possibly see the UK stay neutral in a continental conflict where it is France and the Soviet Union united against Germany in 1939, although Belgium complicates matters.

Without a Molotov Ribbentrop Pact, it makes little sense for Hitler to create a land border with a likely hostile Soviet Union while his western flank is open. A German-Polish deal might be more likely, where Germany attacks France first, and Poland promises to not let Soviet troops through their country. A 1939 invasion of France could very well be a disaster, since the German army would not yet have learned the lessons from Poland... Or it could be a success, with the French being even less ready for such an invasion.

The question now boils down to whether Stalin would try to rush to the aid of his ally, likely by invading Poland (which, considering the Winter War, could go very poorly), and if the UK would intervene to protect France and Belgium.
Why would the French and British public be shocked? The Franco-Soviet Alliance actually happened in 1936. No one except Hitler freaked out about it, he used it as a pretext to invade the Rhineland. The only problem was this Alliance fell apart in 1939. however the scenario I'm proposing is simply one where this Alliance does not fall apart in 1939.
 

Zauberelefant

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Why would the French and British public be shocked? The Franco-Soviet Alliance actually happened in 1936. No one except Hitler freaked out about it, he used it as a pretext to invade the Rhineland. The only problem was this Alliance fell apart in 1939. however the scenario I'm proposing is simply one where this Alliance does not fall apart in 1939.
I think the Problem with the Franco soviet pact was it being a very hollow threat. The treaty required the powers of the Locarno treaty to unanimously declare an unprovoked aggression, and those powers were UK, italy and belgium, neither of the three willing to have dead soldiers on behalf of the soviet union.

So, there goes that theory out of the window.
The same would be the case for an actual alliance deserving the name.
Depending on events, britain might end up defending poland against the USSR, blockading pro soviet France and stay neutral or become even allied to Germany.
 
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Sunforged General

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I think the Problem with the Franco soviet pact was it being a very hollow threat. The treaty required the powers of the Locarno treaty to unanimously declare an unprovoked aggression, and those powers were UK, italy and belgium, neither of the three willing to have dead soldiers on behalf of the soviet union.

So, there goes that theory out of the window.
The same would be the case for an actual alliance deserving the name.
Depending on events, britain might end up defending poland against the USSR, blockading pro soviet France and stay neutral or become even allied to Germany.
Britain helping Germany with anything is far more unlikely than a true Soviet French alliance, Britain hardly wanted to help Democratic countries like Czechoslovakia, what makes you think they'd want dead Sons to help fascist Germany.

Nothing is going to change the fact that eventually Germany wants to beat France and to do so they have to invade Belgium, which is guaranteed by Britain. Unless Britain goes fascist, they will always end up allied to France. Either that or Germany tries to attack the Maginot line head on, which would be fun to see them try.
 
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DicRoNero

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No one except Hitler freaked out about it, he used it as a pretext to invade the Rhineland.
Invasion is such a strong word for something in fact involving moving 3 (!) battalions (!!) within your own territory.

Although 'remilitarization of the Rheinland' aint much better in its sky-high hypocricy, it at least disguises the actual happening under bombastic and scary terms.
 
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Sunforged General

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Invasion is such a strong word for something in fact involving moving 3 (!) battalions (!!) within your own territory.

Although 'remilitarization of the Rheinland' aint much better in its sky-high hypocricy, it at least disguises the actual happening under bombastic and scary terms.
Germany swore on her honor to not station troops in the Rhineland, she dishonored her self by going back on her word. And I see it as no different than an invasion, the end goal of moving troops into the Rhineland was to eventually invade France and Belgium.
 
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DystopianAlphaOmega

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Germany swore on her honor to not station troops in the Rhineland, she dishonored her self by going back on her word. And I see it as no different than an invasion, the end goal of moving troops into the Rhineland was to eventually invade France and Belgium.

This was certainly part of it, though also was to be secure against easy French/Belgian reprisals. When Germany previously was having issues with debt repayment issues, France and Belgium just occupied the Rhineland to force the issue. German troops being there made any such intervention a much more complicated and risky calculus.

Also the Rhineland was still administered civilly by Germany even when it was demilitarized, and certainly offered no military resistance, so it wasn't really an "invasion" per se.
 
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