How to "Win" realistically as Japan

[CharlieFox]

But at this point in U.S. history, without a congressional declaration of war, I don't think the U.S. would have become fully involved. Maybe increased "volunteers" and material support, but not outright warfare.

Would Congress have declared war on Japan had they not attacked the U.S. directly, and in such a shocking manner? It's an interesting what-if. But I maintain that without the Japanese surprise attack (and subsequent German declaration of war), U.S. involvement in WW2 would have been significantly different.

I agree though, that obviously, the U.S. wasn't going to do nothing while Japan swallowed up European colonies in East Asia. The question is: what would that involvement look like?

Yes, It's hard to guess the specific response of USA to a Japonese Dow to the allies as congress might still have been redundant to declare war. Perhaps USA migh have established a naval exclusion zone (I don't know if this is the correct term) around Philippines and East Indies. Basically, US vessels migh patrol the area and warn any Japonese vessels they encountered to leave the exclusion zone and engage if they failed to comply similarly to the undeclared war in the Atlantic.

 

[ruzen]

Japan can declare war very easy and expand, yes. But even japan needs some time to prepare for fast invasion of China. I think the skill would be mesured by how fast you can conquer China 100%. If not prepared enough war can dragg too long. but no mather how you try. The easiest nation USA, will bring you down. Cuz they are OP during that era

 

[Commissar Yossarian]

In HOI3 it's trivially easy with Japan to take and own the USA along with India and the rest of the East.
The AI does a shite job of handling Naval invasions, so the longest part about conquering China is waiting to change the war goal to full conquer.

While not realistic, Japan only researches and produces Carries, Light Cruisers, CAG, Marines, LCI and lots and lots of convoys. By rapidly sweeping through the South Pacific in 1939 microing your invasions you can have an infinite resource pool, with a pure focus on pushing out the naval bases to keep your convoys safe. If you focus on the various straight bonuses you get a huge bump to your research and you can rapidly max out your navy techs. Japan's initial land army is more than sufficient to steam roll Mainland Asia. End of 40 should have all of India and the South Pacific short of the American holdings under your control.

41 is prep for the Naval war which once commenced requires Japan to hold every Pacific base inside a month allowing you to base your Carrier groups out of Hawaii without any ships killing your transports.

42 you use your two maxed out Carrier groups (4 CV, 8 CL, + 2 sets of CAG's to cycle) to end SD and SF as functioning ports and build German Armoured Divisions by production licence.

43 see's the invasion of Vancouver and Alaska. 44 USA capitulates.

If it's a custom start you can do the above, but also take Egypt followed by the Caucus to give Germany AI an easy win over Russia.

I'm hoping HOI4 makes it a little more difficult, but from Dan's WWW I doubt it.

 

[Vukodav]

Well, Japan was placed on war path with USA after series of embargoes, including scrap iron and oil. All of that started after Japan's annexation of Indochina - that closed USA help to China that was going through North Vietnam.

So, no Indochina invasion before taking care of China and USA should not be agitated enough to go to war.

And Japan's end goal was Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere that was less about conquering, more about puppet governments - and most of them included lands of colonial forces like France, UK, Netherlands.

So, in a way, for Japan to win, it must go the North Way that Army wanted instead of South Way that Navy wanted. Combined German-Japanese attack on Soviet Union in 1941 might be just the thing needed, as Soviets stopped Germans with those Far Eastern divisions in the end of 1941. Combined two way pressure might be the winning thing. Only then, with resources Germany needs, they might turn back to UK.

With two crumbling empires (France and UK), the biggest threat to Axis (Soviet Union) eliminated, and the rising nationalism in the colonies - there might be a chance for Japan to fulfill its goals.

USA would not stand idly, but its entrance to the war could be delayed for a year or maybe even more. Let it send supplies to Allies but not get involved or mobilize its entire industry.

I can see how that might work, but all of that is one big IF.

 

[ruzen]

Oh If we talking about AI I have zero confidence that It's going to be any problem. From what I see from all these streams, the AI is on life support. I was thinking about multiplayer when I was thinking.

 

[Sharp163]

Japan had been making massive industrial, technological and economic gains since the Meiji restoration, but the truth is that they realistically wouldn't be 100% ready until 1950 or 1960.

If you're ready to charge in anyways though, there's another problem looming: the absence of stockpiles. If playing hoi3 or darkest hour, it's much easier to start in 1933, smash China while they're weak, stockpile tasty American oil, and then invade Siberia and India. You can dominate Asia in no time.

In HOI4, we have yet to see how this will play out, or even if the pacific theater is fixed this time.

 

[TheRomanRuler]

Idea of igniting rebellions somewhere where USA wants to fight them and then dow them so they will seek help from axis sounds like great way to keep USA friendly to you. Genius! That would actually work in rl, and it did during ww2: USA is enemy of Soviet Union, but when Japany and then Germany dow USA, Usa allied with SU. But like is the case with Japany, alliance only lasted for duration of conflict when it became USA vs SU

 

[Super-Soviet]

Spend all your political points, and I mean ALL of them, on supporting Fascism/Communism in the United States so they have a civil war. Attack them when vulnerable. A House Divided cannot stand.

 

[KaeI]

I don't know if it's rignt but I read somewhere that Japanesse wanted to signa peace treaty with the US in case of a victory in Midway. But I don't know if the American will sign it.

 

[ramius3443]

A full out victory over the US is highly ahistorical and was never likely to happen: it was also never the objective. The Japanese leadership knew this, which is why their real objective was to make it so difficult/bloody for the US to pry back the western Pacific that we would just conceed and let them have it. You can see this in their choice of targets: they immedietly went for the Pacific fleet and ALL of our Pacific Naval Bases (with the exception of Midway, which didn't have real port facilities) within a week of the conflict. Once they had all the bases, along with pushing the assault on the other islands in their perimeter set about fortifying those islands against the expected future US counterattack. There were also plans to strike at the Panama Canal using submarine carriers (i dont remember what happened to that plan)

So long as Japan stubbornly held onto those tiny specks, we would be unable to channel our full force into the areas Japan really cared about (China, Dutch East Indies, maybe Philiphines???) and the idea was that we would eventually tire ourselves out uselessly attacking fortified islands and sue for peace.

This strategy had two problems: one, it kinda depended on Japan keeping momentum for at least a year (they lost it within 6 months), and it also required the US public to clamor for peace. However, due to the war with Germany ongoing simultaneously the US Public was in a crusading mood anyway, so this was unlikely to happen regardless. So the strategy would probably have failed regardless. But it was a valiant effort

 

[CrasherZZ]

I don't know if it's rignt but I read somewhere that Japanesse wanted to signa peace treaty with the US in case of a victory in Midway. But I don't know if the American will sign it.

Not after a Pearl Harbor event, IMO. Good question, though, would an AI US agree to peace with Japan if there is no Day of Infamy event? Japan's goal was to negotiate a peace with the US but they went about it completely the wrong way historically...

 

[WeissRaben]

Not after a Pearl Harbor event, IMO. Good question, though, would an AI US agree to peace with Japan if there is no Day of Infamy event? Japan's goal was to negotiate a peace with the US but they went about it completely the wrong way historically...

An isolationist US who can't get a hold of a Japan playing the cards close to their chest will eventually go "you know what, fuck it" and go for a white peace, like in 'Nam. That requires no Day of Infamy rhetoric, though, so no Pearl, which makes the war harder to fight if the IJN insists for GRORIOUS BATTRES.

 

[CrasherZZ]

So long as Japan stubbornly held onto those tiny specks, we would be unable to channel our full force into the areas Japan really cared about (China, Dutch East Indies, maybe Philiphines???) and the idea was that we would eventually tire ourselves out uselessly attacking fortified islands and sue for peace.

This is exactly how I beat the US as Japan in one game, but in HOI3 the US doesn't sue for peace so I had to invade it. As long as the IJN can avoid a Midway type defeat, and Germany defeats the SU, Japan can avoid defeat.

 

[Amur_Tiger]

I'm not sure if a limited victory against the US is impossible. Assuming you can recreate the results of Pearl Harbor there's a fair bit if opportunity to improve the Japanese stretegic position over what was done historically.

In particular, besides the somewhat infamous 3rd wave attack there's also the potential if backing up the carrier attacks with a battleship bombardment. Letting the Kongo class tag along with the the carrier strike group and then pull up to Pearl shortly after the second attack wave and proceeding to unload their magazines on the remaining ships present. Given the effects of being caught up in the carrier attacks and barely mobile inside the confines of the port the Kongos should be well enough equipped to demolish all remaining major ships and spare some damage for the oiling and port facilities.

With sufficient damage done there the US fleet that remains should be stuck operating out of the west coast, giving the Japanese room to establish themselves in the central pacific and from there leverage land-based airpower to help them in any future carrier contests.

Committing the resources poured into the Yamato class into 4+ additional Shokaku or Taiho class should maintain sufficient force to combat the US until late 43 or 44.

In this time the goal would be to achieve enough elsewhere to give Japan a fighting chance industrially or further bloody the US, with a particular focus on any attempts to rebuild the US fleet in the Pacific. With enough achieved in war and a willingness to give up a fair bit ( though not all) territory for peace then I think there's a window for opportunity for Japan, though obviously a narrow one.

 

[KaeI]

Maybe with a system of victory pointor objetif like sunk the US Navy? Even if the Pearl harbor happen and Japan win at Midway, how US people will react to a possible invasion? Will Rooswelt loose the support and dissident rise or will the american resolve be stronger?

In both case, this will be really bad for Allies. The lend lease for UK will be decreased and U-boot can send larger operation in east cost.

Some country in the South America can also see the US as weaked and restart commerce with Germany or start war for their claim and seek help with Japan and/or Germany, this will go against the Monroe doctrine. The world war spread in Sud america and a new front open, but it's not the subject.


Edit: like Amur_Tiger Says, the pearl harbor attack can be more devastating that IRL. The Yamato class can also be converted in carrier like Shinano.

The US fleet in Midway was the survivor of Pearl Harbor or it was the Atlantic fleet?

 

[MonkeyFuzz]

I would wonder what the outcome might be like if Japan eschewed battleship construction in favor of a strict carrier/destroyer/submarine program. Carriers would address how naval capital ship combat technology progressed in the Pacific, destroyers to counter the inevitable US submarine campaign against Japanese shipping, and submarines to enact a counter blockade east of Hawaii.

 

[WeissRaben]

I would wonder what the outcome might be like if Japan eschewed battleship construction in favor of a strict carrier/destroyer/submarine program. Carriers would address how naval capital ship combat technology progressed in the Pacific, destroyers to counter the inevitable US submarine campaign against Japanese shipping, and submarines to enact a counter blockade east of Hawaii.

An all-carriers discipline is going to be devastating... for the Japanese. The Japanese tried, IRL: the Americans just had too good of an AA to make it viable. As a matter of fact, battleships in WW2 weren't nearly as outclassed by carriers as popular culture believes: Japanese anti-air was just that horrible. American battleships from '43 onwards regularly trounced air wings.

 

[MonkeyFuzz]

Certainly. Perhaps player upgraded carriers and escort screens can be better focused towards anti-air.

It also didn't help that the US could vastly outproduce Japan with something like ten fleet carriers and dozens of escort carriers by 1944, a time when Japan was finally replacing its carrier losses from 1942.