How to "Win" realistically as Japan

[CharlieFox]

IRL all Japan could hope to achieve is to inflict enough loses that USA agrees to a white peace and lifts the oil embargo (and I think even that is far fetched)

I don't' know in Hoi IV (obviously) but if AI is competent the only (slim) chance should be to sink their fleet to achieve full naval superiority in the pacific in the first months of the war and invade them while their army is still weak. If you give them enough time to switch civilian factories to military factories or to rebuild/reinforce their navy they will drown you on planes, ships, tanks and artillery. And that strategy might be very hard to do since a) invasions take time to plan b) with new naval mechanics forcing a decisive battle to achieve naval superiority migh be difficult.

Alternatively , you migh wanna dig in in the pacific, tie as many USA resources as possible, try to help Germany against the Soviet Union and pray that Germany wins with some manpower intact and starts to build a serious navy to help you invade USA before Uncle Sam comes knocking to mainland Japan with strategic bombers and nukes.

 

[Alexander Suvorov]

My post refers to what is possible in the upcoming game, not historically or realistically.

Japan starts with synthetic oil tech researched. This is the developers subtle way of showing you the path to success. by focusing on naval dockyards and synthetic refineries, you'll start to quickly produce much faster both planes and ships. you could spend the time needed to construct a dockyard and have it work at two thirds efficiency because you lack oil, or construct a refinery for roughly 3x the construction time and have 2 existing naval dockyards an 1 existing airplane factory (2 oil and 1 rubber) increase their outputs of war material by 1/3 each (worth a full factory). I have assumed in the preceding example that you have the other resource needed, steel or aluminum for ships or planes respectively I think.

Now you might think that means you should build naval dockyards and factories till you are running out of steel and/or aluminum and then build refineries to maximize the real factory output increase you get from your construction projects. but this overlooks your imminent conquest of China. China (soon to be Japan) has loads of steel and aluminum and like 2 oil... so yeah it makes sense to start building some refineries soon because you are going to add tons of everything else by early conquest (including both dockyards and military factories) but no rubber or oil. If you're thinking you can get the oil or rubber by later expansion elsewhere, well... good luck. You won't have enough yourself, and your expansion, whichever direction you choose, will bring you to war with someone bigger, who has lots of resources.

If you construct your scarce resources yourself, you can keep expanding into the softer targets and the factories you acquire can work effectively, supplied by your refineries. Continue to build until you have massed enough strength to do... stuff. (if I say anything specific people will just argue that the specific thing I said was impossible for the following reasons...)

 

[adam_grif]

Get the generals under control and don't go to war with China again. Just stick with developing Manchukyuo and sit the war out.

Maybe not so interesting, but probably the best long term strategy for Japan

 

[Mannstien]

Try the Northern Route? At least it was a possibility and in conjunction with a strong start to Barbarossa would allow you to build up an experienced army while fighting in China but the problem is always going to be where to get the resources you need without pissing off the US and anything aggressive is probably going to do that.

I'm thinking of the Southern Strategy also without touching the Philippines or Pearl for that matter to see how long the US can be kept out of the war while gobbling up some resources which my guess won't be long if Japan goes to war with the Allies still so really the best strategy to win the war without having touched HOI4 is for Japan to stay out of it as long as possible.

 

[Jeremy971]

Dear Grallak (is that a real name ???),
to answer your question you have to remember the Mighty Johan Andersson playing in World War Wednesday. The best way to win in playing Japan is
First,

Then,

Finally,

Because you have to remember the meaning of playing HOI4 is to NUUUUUUUUUKKKEEE THEM ALL !!! Follow the Kim Jong Un spirit bro !

 

[CrasherZZ]

In HOI3, I have never won as Japan when Germany was defeated by the SU. Japan and the Axis can win even if the US joins the Allies as long as Germany defeats the SU. Therefore a winning strategy has three objectives, IMO.

1. Deny the Allies access to the resources in their Asian colonies
2. Assist Germany in defeating the Soviet Union
3. Either keep the US from joining the Allies, or defeat the US in the Pacific

Japan should ignore China from the outset but go to war as early as possible against the Allies. In fact, if possible, it should try to get Germany to chose the China national focus by avoiding war with China. If it's possible in HOI4, Japan needs to get China to join the Axis, so that they can completely surround the SU. This is not historically implausible because Germany and China had a long period of cooperation. and Germany actually would have very much preferred to be allied with both Japan and China at the same time, but Japan forced them to chose one or the other. I don't know if this can happen in HOI4 SP though.

The problem with this strategy is that Japan has to wait for Germany to makes it moves. Will it chose China, when does it attack the SU, or when does the SU attack Germany? Does Germany attempt Sea Lion? Perhaps Germany will attempt Sea Lion only if Japan joins the Axis early?

If Japan choses to try to conquer China it can win only if Germany does very well against the SU. If Japan stays out of the Axis but fights the SU, the Allies would've sided wth Japan against the SU as long the Axis isn't at war with SU yet.

In a nutshell Japan/Axis must defeat the SU, or Japan/Allies must defeat the SU or the Axis. The Axis cannot win without Japan unless the Allies are also at war with the SU. The SU cannot win unless the Allies are also at war with the Axis. The SU is both the biggest threat to everyone and in the weakest position without partners. The trick in a three-sided conflict is to get to be on the right side of a 2 against 1 match-up.

It's going to be interesting to see just how much of "sandbox" HOI4 is going to be.

 

[uther4117]

I don't think there is any realistic way of Japan to defeat US..

In game terms though it's always possible even without breaking game mechanics.. Without Pearl Harbor US going aggressive and you have a population who doesn't support your war efforts completely.. Not as gigantic and glorious as in reality but game can't simulate that so a US in war always a powerhouse.. So Japan shouldn't but can in the game that's it.. And it's nowhere realistic..

We need to see our options, if you keep British from doing the tizard mission then maybe by small amounts of gains as such.. You can win.. Also irl Japan's code was cracked and US knew their everystep.. They lost the war after 6 months in Midway with an unrecoverable blow.. Also admiral Yamamoto s plane shot down on his way and US could so much Intel that they could do it.. For 1940s that's incredible..

 

[Procyanide]

Yes, but if we want to create our own faction and rule the pacific with India and such countries with it then we will most likely have to fight the US, sooner or later, which is what this topic is focusing on.

I cant think of a scenario where this would end well for japan. Even if they manage to capture the dutch east indies, indochina and mainland china. The US can produce so much, so fast that Japancan simply not keep up. Combine this with any potential allies the US may have and my conclusion would be: war with the US means your game is effectively over.

 

[SchwarzKatze]

The problem is: Is there a realistic way to make US lose?

 

[Wyrm]

How much of a strategic loss would it be for the US to lose access to the Panama canal? It would probably be hard to capture and hold, but it would be vulnerable to sabotage if taken for a limited time...

 

[Grallak]

Gentlemen, it was never my intentions to have a conflict with the US until the very end game where the UK and SU had already been dealt with. Having a conflict with the US before those two nations have been dealt with and preparations have been made are off the table.

 

[uther4117]

We definitely need DLCs to make it more in-depth such that USA can't go full on war machine unless it has full public support such that it needs to be provoked.. If they enter war without that, they can't role as happened IRL. If we have it in game then things can be more interesting..

 

[Loke]

Like some ppl has mentioned earlier, help Germany win in Russia, thats the Axis only chance.

 

[Saint Gwynllyw]

Try the Northern Route? At least it was a possibility and in conjunction with a strong start to Barbarossa would allow you to build up an experienced army while fighting in China but the problem is always going to be where to get the resources you need without pissing off the US and anything aggressive is probably going to do that.

I'm thinking of the Southern Strategy also without touching the Philippines or Pearl for that matter to see how long the US can be kept out of the war while gobbling up some resources which my guess won't be long if Japan goes to war with the Allies still so really the best strategy to win the war without having touched HOI4 is for Japan to stay out of it as long as possible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol

 

[TheCrimsonMajor]

Well, I think there's a significant question as to whether the U.S. would have gone to war with Japan at all without Pearl Harbor. If that is well represented in game, then it may take much longer for the U.S. to join the war at all. I imagine a lot of Japan's success will come down to careful management of its contribution to world tension early on.

 

[CharlieFox]

Well, I think there's a significant question as to whether the U.S. would have gone to war with Japan at all without Pearl Harbor. If that is well represented in game, then it may take much longer for the U.S. to join the war at all. I imagine a lot of Japan's success will come down to careful management of its contribution to world tension early on.

I believe that before Pearl Harbor, Roosvelt had "extraofficially" agreed with Churchill that USA would DoW Japan if they attacked the allies (likewise the UK also agreed to DoW Japan if they attacked the USA). The USA was already very unhappy with Japan expansion into China and Indochina there was no way they would have sat idle while they went on a rampage against the allies. In game this is most likely represented through world tension and national focus.

However, without Pearl Harbor or a similar attack the USA migh not have been able to fully mobilize its industry and manpower (it's harder to sell a war when you are the aggressor fighting far away from home). I don't think this is represented in Hoi IV

 

[RVallant]

Get the generals under control and don't go to war with China again. Just stick with developing Manchukyuo and sit the war out.

Maybe not so interesting, but probably the best long term strategy for Japan

Pretty much my thoughts. Don't make the mistake of 'splitting' objectives, just seize China and look towards Russia perhaps. Leave the mighty USA alone. >_>

 

[TheCrimsonMajor]

I believe that before Pearl Harbor, Roosvelt had "extraofficially" agreed with Churchill that USA would DoW Japan if they attacked the allies (likewise the UK also agreed to DoW Japan if they attacked the USA). The USA was already very unhappy with Japan expansion into China and Indochina there was no way they would have sat idle while they went on a rampage against the allies. In game this is most likely represented through world tension and national focus.

However, without Pearl Harbor or a similar attack the USA migh not have been able to fully mobilize its industry and manpower (it's harder to sell a war when you are the aggressor fighting far away from home). I don't think this is represented in Hoi IV

But at this point in U.S. history, without a congressional declaration of war, I don't think the U.S. would have become fully involved. Maybe increased "volunteers" and material support, but not outright warfare.

Would Congress have declared war on Japan had they not attacked the U.S. directly, and in such a shocking manner? It's an interesting what-if. But I maintain that without the Japanese surprise attack (and subsequent German declaration of war), U.S. involvement in WW2 would have been significantly different.

I agree though, that obviously, the U.S. wasn't going to do nothing while Japan swallowed up European colonies in East Asia. The question is: what would that involvement look like?

 

[EmperorBatman999]

Wait how did people beat the USA as Japan in HoI3?

 

[WeissRaben]

Realistically? Kantai Kessen needs to go. American strategists were pretty leery about having to fight a war beyond the Pacific - the logistics would have been horrible - but Japan decided to bring the fight to America, and America won, easily. Declare war, avoid Pearl Harbor, get rid of the Philippines, and then play the guerrilla fighter. Without the Day of Infamy rhetoric, a complete mobilization (industrial, but mostly ideological) would be almost impossible; with some luck, the Pacific War might well turn into a 'Nam ante litteram. Of course, in actual history such a change would have been almost impossible; and I don't think how the war starts will have any effect in game. Still, Japan did have the navy to take on a shattered, far-from-home navy, no matter its original size; it just wouldn't accept "steeping so low".