How to "Win" realistically as Japan

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Grallak

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Ok so, we have seen some action from Japan during the WWW video with Daniel, but there hasn't been a topic as of yet on how Japan is supposed to deal with the US. In HOI3 it was an inevitable fact that the US would sooner or later come and attack Japan, so you had to make preparations and glitch your way through the game or use unrealistically good Yamatos to be able to take out the US. We know that historically Japan could never have beaten the US, or even the UK; the former having 10:1 times as many factories and the latter 3:1.

Basically, Japan crawled into a corner by continuing to expand into south Vietnam to take resources from there somewhere in July 1941. The Oil Embargo which would cripple their economy would come after that in september 1941. Now there are many ways we could have Japan make better diplomatical decisions and therefor delayed if not prevented and even joined with the US to protect against the threat of communism. Without pearl harbor, no US intervention, and no Hitler declaring war on the US. Communism would grow much larger before the US would even have a chance to get into the war, and the world would have looked different from our current one.

Since this is a game, I won't get into the details, but instead focusing on how to make Japan grow as large as possible without having to provoke a conflict with the US. I will then see how an inevitable conflict with the US could be won, or atleast turn into some sort of stalemate.

We know that Japan can pretty much declare war right away after the game start, regardless if China secedes territory or not, since we need the xp and resources. I am assuming since this is a game, the player will make better decisions and perhaps manage to control china in around 1937-1939ish. That would give the player plenty of time to move his army to take the fight to the soviets and harass them in order to help Germany, aswell as invade the Raj (and of course Australia cus why not). Taking all of china would definitely spark a lot of tensions, so Japan should start to build up it's navy to confront the US. The real question of this topic is how to tackle the US.
Should appeasement be used or should Japan just try to attack their coasts and panama canal? Should Japan redirect it's fleet to Europe by going through india > south africa > england > US mainland? The last option would seem more reasonable since we would have about one or two years more time if we work fast to establish ourselves in europe from where we can attack the US. Since the US probably wouldn't take the fight to the brittish (although I am not discarding the possibility), Japan could find itself at war with the US around 1939ish. While the US wouldn't be strong at first, it would become difficult to invade them and still hold onto islands in the pacific and the mainland for more than two years, so you should be ready to invade New York in around 1942. The Italian Navy aswell as the German fleet (assuming Germany beats the SU before 1942 and has begun build a stronger navy, should now be prepared to invade the US. Another option is to just wait for Italy and Germany to try and take England then the US, making an assault on the US from both sides, again, very hard. The real question is whether the US will ally with Britain or wait until it is the last one standing before going to war. The only option that represents an "easy" victory is if the US is still not at war when the SU and UK has fallen, and that the remaining axis countries are preparing to invade it from both sides (Not sure if this is possible with AI in SP but we'll see).

So what do you think? How would you go about to become masters of Asia?
 

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as you pretty much state in your post, Japan will always lose a 1v1 against the us, so avoiding war with the us should be top priority, or at least postponing as long as possible. if japan manages that, most scenarios are winnable for them.
 

Grallak

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as you pretty much state in your post, Japan will always lose a 1v1 against the us, so avoiding war with the us should be top priority, or at least postponing as long as possible. if japan manages that, most scenarios are winnable for them.
Yes, but if we want to create our own faction and rule the pacific with India and such countries with it then we will most likely have to fight the US, sooner or later, which is what this topic is focusing on.
 

Alexoren

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Of course there is always the potential of trying to yoink one of the South American states into the Axis faction just to distract the US for a while longer. Also, if you can force China to capitulate quickly enough without expanding too deep into the Pacific you may be able to keep the US from acting rash.
 
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Swinds

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Germany is the Best way for Japan to Win.

If Germany can win in Russia and then invade GB then this means the US has two coasts to defend and this splits the resources. The US Atlantic Fleet suddenly needs Carriers and BBs to protect the eastern sea board.

How likely is the US in the game to defend Java or Australia? From what I have seen the allies do not help each other much. I think this is why they got two human players to play the US and Japan in the WWW.

So Japan could get the oil from Java and Brunei and the metals from China. These can be increased if Japan helps Germany against Russia.

After all this it depends on how aggressive the US AI is. If the US use subs against Japanese supply lines then Japan is in trouble. If the US builds a massive fleet in the Pacific and marines to invade the Islands then Japan is in trouble. If Japan can put large amounts of aircraft to tackle the US ships, Germany becomes a threat to the US mainland and Japan gets the factories and resources from conquest it might be possible.
 
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PlacidDragon

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Well... as said, Japan simply cannot beat the US in a straight up fight, they outproduce Japan by far too much. So the Japanese player has to be smart (and probably very lucky) to pull off a successful game. This assumes that the US regardless of the political climate in the world would always want to put a severe break on Japanese Imperial ambitions.

Since we have the benefit of hindsight, nobody in their right mind would pull a "Pearl Harbor", which probably means that at some point it will be the US declaring war. If Japan in that time has managed to secure China, and have harassed the Russians enough for Germany to perform better than historically, i think Japan would be in a great position to defend themselves (as i see it, after a brief spurt of offense, like taking the Philippines, etc, its going to be a defensive war for Japan).

But for Japan to "win", it would need help from the Axis (primarily Germany), standing alone would doom them as i see it.
 
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Grallak

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Well... as said, Japan simply cannot beat the US in a straight up fight, they outproduce Japan by far too much. So the Japanese player has to be smart (and probably very lucky) to pull off a successful game. This assumes that the US regardless of the political climate in the world would always want to put a severe break on Japanese Imperial ambitions.

Since we have the benefit of hindsight, nobody in their right mind would pull a "Pearl Harbor", which probably means that at some point it will be the US declaring war. If Japan in that time has managed to secure China, and have harassed the Russians enough for Germany to perform better than historically, i think Japan would be in a great position to defend themselves (as i see it, after a brief spurt of offense, like taking the Philippines, etc, its going to be a defensive war for Japan).

But for Japan to "win", it would need help from the Axis (primarily Germany), standing alone would doom them as i see it.
I have actually considered the idea of trying to incite revolts in dutch and french indo china, since that would make it possible to have independent nations which both the US and Japan could trade with for their rubber and oil, and make a confrontation rather pointless. (Unless USA wants to fight for democracy :) ) We know Portugese, Dutch and french grip on their colonial nations were, weak, so I don't see why that wouldn't be a realistic option. Why fight them when you can just trade with them using surpluss stuff you don't need? Since you supported their glorious revolution for independence, they will most likely be more than happy to oblige. We know that we are able to create coups in countries, so inciting native population against their overlords should also be an option. The Japanese supported the Thai during the franch-thai war, and by doing so managed to mediate between them. I don't see why they couldn't have done something similar in indonesia.

If they just incited revolts (Nationalism was really high and many were against the Dutch government for being cruel to muslims and refusing them rights) would make the entire pacific war meaningless since there would no longer be any incitive to declare war on the countries, or atleast not any time soon since they could just get most of their needs by doing this. The US government would be most likely unable to intervene since they would not have a mandate to do so. Since the Japanese would be fighting communism and western imperialism, the US wouldn't have any grounds to be at war with them other than China, which had already been going on for quite some time and didn't interest a lot of people. The Japanese could then focus on drumming up more Anti-communist rhetoric and focus on building a better army and navy, aswell as improve ties with Germany and the US, possibly giving them a chance to cooperate more. In any case, the US would be left out of the war while Japan would have access to the resources it needs to build a stronger army, thus achieving the goals of this topic. We have had diaries on Political coups, but indepence revolts hasn't been really discussed. Judging however from Japan's focus, it does mention some kind of national indian army and Indonesian revolts of some sort. Perhaps this could be used to gain puppets in SE Asia while delaying the US from entering the war? Who knows.
 
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Mioman

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I wonder what happens if Germany chooses China instead of Japan in their NF-Tree. Will that mean, that Japan gets the US-support which was given to China IRL?
 
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Grallak

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I wonder what happens if Germany chooses China instead of Japan in their NF-Tree. Will that mean, that Japan gets the US-support which was given to China IRL?
Germany wasn't really a super huge thing at the time since it was fighting communism, and the US was more worried about losing markets than stopping facism. It wouldn't have made a huge difference though. Also, why would Germany support China who is weaker but not Japan? I don't see the reasoning behind that.
 

geogus

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Japan germany of the seas.

Starts strong against a more powerful but underprepared enemy and has to make early gains.

If war against US cant be avoided, which seems to be a consensus, I believe its is best to strike first, like in real life.

No point waiting US get stronger, and stonger.

U might try to pull a pearl habor-like attack, but do even better than IRL if possible, capturing Hawaii and wipping as many capital ships as possible.

Aftet that it has to keep winning naval batlles making the best of the windows the US will need to build new fllets.


If u re able to do so u might have very experinced troops facing more numerous but greener enemys. ( a small question, naval units get battle experience, as land troops)

If a japan player suceddes at pearl habor and a midway-like naval battle and get naval supremacy at pacific, even temporaly one, it should land at california and try to disrupt the some of US industrial capacity at west coast, in perfect dream going all the way to texas oil fields.

However, most likely it would be some pocket at california and force US to spend time defending while giving time to germany beat UK, since lend and lease would be affected.


I would be prepared to get the land divisions wiped eventually however. Sometime US will overproduce and run over the japanese pocket. I would not try to save these divisions, but to hold industrial provinces as much as possible.

U want to disrupt US industrial capacity, to lessen the gap while u keep spamming as much ships as possible.

The point is to reduce US as much as possible, while increse demand to build land forces to defend its territory, making it slower the build up a new pacific fleet


Besides a japan player should pay attention to US focus choise, if it goes isolationist it will take even more time to build up after attacked
 
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Grallak

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The question is what Indian National Army and Improved national spirit does. Do they allowed me to intervene in dutch colonies without provoking the US? Aswell as India? The developers haven't mentioned whether you can support independence movements, which I think is a shame, because it is rather important.
 

Mioman

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Germany wasn't really a super huge thing at the time since it was fighting communism, and the US was more worried about losing markets than stopping facism.
[...]

Well, that would depend on when exactly the war between China and Japan started and how high the world tension generated by Germany is (in ingame-terms). If germany goes super aggressive early on, the USA might just be concerned enough to support Japan over China.


[...]
Also, why would Germany support China who is weaker but not Japan? I don't see the reasoning behind that.

It is a part of Germany's NF-tree, so there is a possibility of that happening.
 

Grallak

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Well, that would depend on when exactly the war between China and Japan started and how high the world tension generated by Germany is (in ingame-terms). If germany goes super aggressive early on, the USA might just be concerned enough to support Japan over China.




It is a part of Germany's NF-tree, so there is a possibility of that happening.
We are trying to focus more on how a SP Japan could realistically "Win" in the pacific or avoid a major conflict which will cause it to fall. If they manage to grab China and get resources from colonial nations without having to invade them and bring in the US and the UK then it should be considered a "Win" in my eyes, unless you want to go bonkers WC for whatever reason. This option should atleast be rather easy to achieve for anyone.

Japan would be on par with the US during the cold war with the manpower and resources they would have available to them, and easily be able to outproduce them by the sixties or seventies or so. Now we don't know whether we will be able to incite revolts in a country, but if we aren't able then I am going to be angry. If not in the release then definitely in a DLC. It's a realistic alternative to an more aggressive Japan. It should however require that a nation is already very weak, so maybe not in India but definitely Dutch indonesia and French Indochina.
 

Woolly Mammoth

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Could it be possible in SP to pull the UK onto Japan's side? The combination of British and Japanese navel power could probably keep the US from landing substantial forces in Asia. Of course this may be stretching 'realistically' winning as Japan. Just pretend you're a much gentler Japan who wanted the Anglo-Japanese alliance back.
 

Daddl

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I don't know what you count as realistically, but if you mention HoI3, it was totally possible as Japan to beat all the Allies on Very Hard, even the US with their 2500 IC compared to your 200 or so, so I don't see why it shouldn't be possible in HoI4.

Invade China, invade Malaysia/Indonesia/India, Puppet Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, invade every single island in the Pacific and sink all US carriers on your way, invade Middle East/ African East coast, invade Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego and Panama before USA gets 20 new carriers. Now the Allies can't have any fleets from South Africa to Suez to US West Coast. Do Sea Lion yourself if Germany is too dumb, roll over USA before they spit out 50 new tank divisions, be finished in 1942, actually before Germany might have started Barbarossa.

But yeah, I wouldn't quite call that "realistically" as well. But it was possible, so I doubt you can't do similar things now.
 
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Caesar15

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Since we have the benefit of hindsight, nobody in their right mind would pull a "Pearl Harbor"

Or maybe..they would? Make Pearl Harbor much worse than it was, smash the pacific fleet, take hawai, take all the islands in one giant swoop and hopefully catch the carriers as well. Who knows.
 
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Thanik

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How to win?
1. Help axis friends to beat Soviets, and UK colonial empire.
2. Produce more nukes, and secure strategic bombers(or if possible figthers) range.
3. Be sure you have 2000 naval bombers(from CV, or land bases) when any naval battle happen:)
 

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As far as i have seen game footage the score system is a bit different from HOI3. You dont have winning conditions like in HOI3 but it is the faction with most score (i dont know exactly how this is determined but properbly something like a ticking score influenced by a number of things like in EU4). So for Japan to win she must join or create a faction which is strong enough.
I would personally go for joining the Soviet faction. Combined they can hold Germany back and when Soviets has build up massively the combined might of Soviet and Japan could be dangerous for US.
 

Grallak

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Why does people not settle for anything but WC? Japan didn't have to have a war with the US to win. Either they could have allied with germany after they won over the SU or the US in defending against communism.
 

PlacidDragon

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Or maybe..they would? Make Pearl Harbor much worse than it was, smash the pacific fleet, take hawai, take all the islands in one giant swoop and hopefully catch the carriers as well. Who knows.
hehe, why i said that is because "why poke the bear".. even if you sink every last US ship, they'll come back with an even bigger fleet 12/18 months later. Unless the AI commits the cardinal sin of sending them out piecemeal, chances are not in Japan's favor even with air superiority (and dont count on having that either, hehe).

Japan, even if brilliantly played, should not have a prayer against a US that is fully mobilized against it, the difference in factory output is simply too great (at least 10 to 1 i'd think). A US that has its attention split between the Pacific and Europe on the other hand, can be "dealt with", or at least stalemated (with some luck). But since you cannot really conquer the US, they'll just keep pouring it on until you fold from attrition.

That said, aggressive playstyle absolutely has its appeal :)
 
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