How to tell if the Scourge are coming?

[Mitchz95]

The way I understand it, whether or not the Scourge will invade is determined at the start of the game and it's just a countdown from there. Assuming it's not canceled by another crisis happening first.

If this is correct, is there a way to see in the save file how long it will be until they arrive? If they arrive?

 

[Pchang]

My understandIng was that after 2400, there was a small probability each month (die roll) that resulted in a mean time to happen. Thus, no countdown.

 

[The Shacks]

Eeer sorry fella, I've had it well before 2400, forget when exactly but was certaintly within the first two hundred years. I'd thought the trigger was something relating to overall pop density in the galaxy. Could be wrong though.

 

[Iviker]

Wiki:

• 10% chance of occurring about 170 years after game start
• 20% chance of occurring about 200 years after game start
• 30% chance of occurring about 250 years after game start
• 15% chance of occurring about 300 years after game start
• 25% chance of never occurring

If another crisis happens before their allotted time, they will not appear anymore.

It goes on to say:

"The arrival of the Fleet is entirely random luck based and is set during Galaxy initialization. The MTTH is between 170 and 300 years, with a 25% chance of them not happening at all."

I've actually had it occur as early as 2300 though, but there you go. You should be able to find the arrival date somewhere in the save file, since it's predetermined. Unsure what it would look like though.

 

[Mitchz95]

I finally had the first Scourge event occur in 2400.08.

Although the follow-up, which is supposed to come 2.5 years later, seems to be a bit tardy...

EDIT: Never mind, they've arrived.