How to predict AI diplomacy and military actions?

[Morphine01]

Is there any efficient way to predict future AI moves, diplomatic and military actions.

In my example with Yugoslavia (axis) campaign i did a big mistake. After anex of Bulgaria my border with neutral Turkey (joined axis later) had almost no protection since i saw them as a buffer between SSSR. After Turkey joined the axis Rusia had easy time to invade my land.

My question is: How to predict those situations through inteligence, diplomacy and main map?

 

[Bevertails]

Well I personally have never played as a small(er) country like Yugo (especially a powder keg country) but nonetheless what I can suggest is.

Mainly because the AI is absolutely unpredictable (from my eyes at least) i've played games where the NETHERLANDS have annexed Ireland and Belgium.
-Not influence turkey if you were doing so. (that's your big hole right there)

-Not join axis and stay neutral,

- Support ruling party in turkey (if it's not fascist)

That's really the most help I can give you because i'm not one of the couple year vet's who know their stuff.

 

[GrandVezir]

The best way to monitor whether another nation is likely to join a faction (OP's problem) is to watch it in the diplomacy tab. You can filter for "Neighbors" to weed out the bulk of countries you don't care about.

Unfortunately, this is tedious, and there is nothing much you can do as Yugoslavia to prevent Turkey from joining the Axis if you are in but don't want them to be. Using espionage to support a non-fascist ruling party, as Bevertails suggests, is the only one I can think of. IIRC, neutrals and minor nations cannot influence others via diplomacy: your country has to be in a faction and meet the IC threshold (85? 100?) in order to use diplomatic influence -- and in any case, you can only influence a nation toward your chosen faction, not away from it.

 

[sgt.stickybomb]

declare war on Turkey before they join?

 

[GrandVezir]

declare war on Turkey before they join?

True, that would prevent them joining the Axis. But it would fail to prevent the Soviets from invading Yugoslavia through Turkish territory, which is probably what the OP really wants to prevent.

 

[21oliver]

Play a few games and you wont have to predict, youll be bored with how predictable the AI is...