How to find out EU4's popularity when it is released.

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ABookshelf

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The same reason CoD is (or was) so popular.

It has a really low skill ceiling and the depth is incredibly shallow so it's easy to get into and people pretend it's hard to master.

Keep riding that high horse. In the end all game developers rely on money and you can't argue with user popularity or revenues. CoD is popular because its fun.