How to avoid English response to Greek failures/1940?

[HeisenbergMastermind]

I'm on about my tenth playthrough as Germany. Every time I focus on the Soviets first to inherit their industry.

Italy always succesfully annexes Greece without Allied responses/declarations of War - which frees up my ground/air campaign against the Soviets.

Now my save file seems to be locked that no matter what, Greece will now join the Allies and begin the Western War instead.

The only change in my national focus strategy is that this time I decided to annex Yugoslavia instead of ally them.

Is there any way I can avoid this in a future save file that is anyone is aware of?

Dankeschon

 

[Synicus]

Might have to do with world tension, would be the biggest difference between ally and annex. I think in historical, Axis can pull off ONE side war vs a minor Democrat or neutral with out intervention. I used to always take Sweden before Poland. Great idea to deal with Russia before the endless war.

 

[GrandVezir]

I think in historical, Axis can pull off ONE side war vs a minor Democrat or neutral with out intervention.

Two, if you time them right. Declare both wars at the same time (ideally, while paused). The first declaration would normally push world tension to the point where the Allies start handing out guarantees, but they won't guarantee a nation already at war. So two at once is best.

 

[brainiac1530]

There are two possible mechanisms. Greece can get guaranteed by a Democratic major, e.g. U.K., or it can join a faction, e.g. the Allies. An AI democracy won't guarantee unless the aggressor has generated 10% world tension themselves, in addition to any world tension requirements to unlock the guarantee action itself (25% default.) They also need to have sufficient PP to grant a guarantee, which is why the U.S. never guarantees anyone. Now, in your case you are above that 25% threshold. However, it's not clear if Italy has generated 10% tension.

The other possibility is Greece simply joining the Allies on their own initiative. As a nonaligned nation, that usually requires 40% world tension, so it probably isn't the case here. It doesn't look like Greece has any modifiers to this by default.

Logically, I think Italy somehow generated 10% or more world tension. Check the world tension log to see if that's the case, and what might have gone differently this game to cause that. However, from what you've given us so far, it looks like the real difference is being over the 25% threshold, and annexing Yugoslavia could totally have led to that.

Wait, I took another look at that screenshot. Italy joined your war on Yugoslavia, didn't it? Otherwise, I don't think you could have given them territory. That's probably what did it right there, joining the war and subsequently making demands.

 

[GrandVezir]

Looking at the screenshot, it's already October 1940. UK should be handing out guarantees to anyone the Axis threatens by that point.

 

[desphorin]

Logically, I think Italy somehow generated 10% or more world tension

The 10% threshold will count for all the tension generated by members of the same faction. So if Italy and Germany generated 5 separately and they join together in the Axis in the future, the allies will start dishing out guarantees to the next Axis-threatened nations.

 

[HeisenbergMastermind]

Thanks guys. Those tips did help me update my strategy. Since changing my actions around, I was able to go through to focus tree to force both Yugoslavia and Greece into the Axis without prompting Allied response. All of Europe is now occupied, except France/British factions, Benelux and the Soviets.