How much stronger was Germany VS North German Confederation

[Pellaken]

I know there are intangibles, things like morale, belief in one's country and cause; but in terms of provable things (industry, manpower, etc) how much stronger was the united "German Empire" compared to the smaller "North German Confederation"?

If the NGF had managed to, through some quirk of Alternate History, survive to WW1, how much of a difference would we have seen if most of the other decisions (like where to focus on in terms of economic growth) had remained the same? If the South German states had remained Neutral, would North Germany alone have been able to hold up as well as Germany did? If the South German states had joined the war, would the lack of "Prussian Leadership" mean the whole is much weaker than in our timeline?

In particular I'm interested in things that can be easily shown and proven, statistics and numbers would be great, as I already have a bit of a grasp on the psychological impact having "only half a country" would have on it's factory workers and fighting men.

 

[Finnish Dragon]

The combined population of Bavaria, Baden and Wurttemberg was more than 10 million inhabitants in 1914. Here are some figures from Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Duchy_of_Baden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Bavaria
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Württemberg

Both Baden and Wurttemberg provided one infantry corps to the German Imperial Army. Bavaria provided 3 infantry corps and about 17 divisions:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XIV_Corps_(German_Empire)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavarian_Army#Raised_during_World_War_I
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_of_Württemberg

It would have been much more difficult for Germany to fight without Baden, Bavaria and Wurttemberg. They provided Germany more than troops to build one German field army. If we assume that the German army would not have those troops then the German strategy would most likely have been more defensive. Launching the Schlieffen plan in 1914 would have been out of question because of lack of troops.

Bavaria at least was an economical powerhouse in Central Europe. BMW was founded in 1916 and that hints that there was already some heavy industry in Bavaria, most likely near Munich:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW

My final assumption is that independent and neutral Baden, Bavaria and Wurttemberg would have changed the WWI outcome a lot favoring the entente nations. The combined military and economical strength of these three nations strengthened the German Empire a lot allowing more aggressive strategies in the early WWI like the mentioned Schlieffen plan.

 

[Pellaken]

Hum. Looks like, if my numbers are right, that there was 21 prussian corps, and 3 bavarian; with 42 prussian divisions compared to 6 bavarian at the time the war broke out. This is 12.5% of the army from Bavaria alone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army_(German_Empire)

In terms of economic strength I'd always been lead to believe that Bavaria was far behind the rhur and areas like silesia and berlin?

 

[Finnish Dragon]

You should also look at the history of Bavarian railroads. There were more than 8500 kilometers of railroad under the control of the Royal Bavarian State Railways in 1918:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Bavarian_State_Railways

That kind of railroad network hints that it was needed to support the local economy not just moving passengers.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Without German unification there will never be much prussian-German support for Austria-Hungary, as the two would still be rivals for hegemony over the southern German states. France wouldn't be nearly as antagonistic towards Prussian-Germany. Prussia-Germany wouldn't acquire colonies and wouldn't try to build a navy to match Britain. WW1 as we know it would never happen.

As for industrialisation of Bavaria: yeah it had some centers of manufacturing, but it had almost no coal deposits, and access to world markets (i.e. incentive to develop what was by 1914 standards a quite specialized machine factory like BMW) only via the customs union with Prussia and the northern Hanseatic port cities. Northern German banks provided much of the starting capital needed to make BMW, Maxhütte etc big. Historically the Bavarian industrialization only really took off after the unification. An independent Bavaria would have had an incomparably harder time developing industry. Austria would likely have tried to pull them into a customs union of her own, one much more geared towards protectionism that the Berlin-led customs union of Imperial Germany.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Hum. Looks like, if my numbers are right, that there was 21 prussian corps, and 3 bavarian; with 42 prussian divisions compared to 6 bavarian at the time the war broke out. This is 12.5% of the army from Bavaria alone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army_(German_Empire)

In terms of economic strength I'd always been lead to believe that Bavaria was far behind the rhur and areas like silesia and berlin?

Most of Bavaria was rural and agricultural until recent times. But Munich, Nuremberg, Augsburg and afaik also Aschaffenburg were regional centers of manufacturing.

 

[Pyoro]

For Württemberg WW1 was probably too early to make a massive difference terms in raw numbers. It had few people, most still lived in villages, and most businesses never outgrew small or medium sizes (arguably one of the reasons the economy there nowadays is so strong). No raw resources of note either.
Transportation had improved in the previous 19th century and some companies like Bosch and Daimler were around, so perhaps it added some technological expertise to Germany, but I doubt it was much that was really crucial.

Situation for Baden was probably similar. Like, Mannheim thanks to harbor and train connections could start some industries (BASF was originally there) but like in Württemberg most produced for the local markets or small luxury items like music instruments or clothes and such, really nothing that screams "we need those guys to wage war!"

 

[MontanaPrussian]

Without German unification there will never be much prussian-German support for Austria-Hungary, as the two would still be rivals for hegemony over the southern German states. France wouldn't be nearly as antagonistic towards Prussian-Germany. Prussia-Germany wouldn't acquire colonies and wouldn't try to build a navy to match Britain. WW1 as we know it would never happen.

That is exactly it. With no Kaiserreich,no WW1.

 

[DoomBunny]

I know there are intangibles, things like morale, belief in one's country and cause; but in terms of provable things (industry, manpower, etc) how much stronger was the united "German Empire" compared to the smaller "North German Confederation"?

If the NGF had managed to, through some quirk of Alternate History, survive to WW1, how much of a difference would we have seen if most of the other decisions (like where to focus on in terms of economic growth) had remained the same? If the South German states had remained Neutral, would North Germany alone have been able to hold up as well as Germany did? If the South German states had joined the war, would the lack of "Prussian Leadership" mean the whole is much weaker than in our timeline?

In particular I'm interested in things that can be easily shown and proven, statistics and numbers would be great, as I already have a bit of a grasp on the psychological impact having "only half a country" would have on it's factory workers and fighting men.

Seems a bit of a stretch to erase 44 years of history and expect things to be the same...

Hum. Looks like, if my numbers are right, that there was 21 prussian corps, and 3 bavarian; with 42 prussian divisions compared to 6 bavarian at the time the war broke out. This is 12.5% of the army from Bavaria alone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army_(German_Empire)

In terms of economic strength I'd always been lead to believe that Bavaria was far behind the rhur and areas like silesia and berlin?

Note that those 'Prussian' formations were only considered Prussian because Bavaria was the only group excluded from the 'Prussian' part of the army. I.e., many of them were actually from the South German states or other areas with distinct regions (Saxon troops for example).

Thus the Bavarian figure is not wholly representative of the role the Southern Germans played in 'German army' at the outbreak of WW1.

Here is a map to demonstrate this a bit. Divisions were (as far as I know at least) quartered locally due to the localisation system used. To these formations should be added the Reserve and Landwehr formations which formed a second and third line.

 

[AegonVLLI]

You also shouldn't forget the much larger internal market Germany had thanks to the southern kingdoms. They weren't that much of a industrial location back then, but their population still consumed and thanks to their numbers alone, this wasn't a negligible factor. So industrialisation in Northern Germany wouldn't be as strong as it was in OTL, even though Bavaria, Baden and Würtembergwould suffer more.

 

[Pellaken]

You also shouldn't forget the much larger internal market Germany had thanks to the southern kingdoms. They weren't that much of a industrial location back then, but their population still consumed and thanks to their numbers alone, this wasn't a negligible factor. So industrialisation in Northern Germany wouldn't be as strong as it was in OTL, even though Bavaria, Baden and Würtembergwould suffer more.

humm. I'd not considered this.

 

[keynes2.0]

Maybe without the French-German rivalry there would be a French-British rivalry. The focus on naval affairs would lead to a very different state of global markets. Could be good for the German coast.

 

[JodelDiplom]

Here is a map to demonstrate this a bit. Divisions were (as far as I know at least) quartered locally due to the localisation system used. To these formations should be added the Reserve and Landwehr formations which formed a second and third line.

That's a cool map! But I would like to point out, that the distribution of garrisons shown there does not match the population density at all. Alsace-Lorraine and the Russian border in particular weren't nearly as populous as the map would indicate if they matched.

 

[DoomBunny]

That's a cool map! But I would like to point out, that the distribution of garrisons shown there does not match the population density at all. Alsace-Lorraine and the Russian border in particular weren't nearly as populous as the map would indicate if they matched.

This is because whilst the population density and positioning of troops does match to an extent it is not necessarily perfect due to military concerns. It would make little sense to garrison several divisions along the Baltic coast when there is little there to protect and little threat. Nor would it make sense to garrison a proportional number of formations in the Ruhr when the Saar both protects the Ruhr and is under greater threat.

Essentially within the wider region which they are recruited, troops tended to be garrisoned. So for example all the Bavarian formations are headquartered in Bavaria, Saxon formations in Saxony, etc... (though regiments are posted elsewhere in cases, see the 3. and 4. Bayerische Infanterie-Division for example). Hence why the disparity mainly occurs in 'Prussian' regions; these troops being easier to redistribute than say, Bavarians or Saxons. Note that the localised recruitment was probably not set in stone (though did occur to a large extent), I'd imagine professional volunteers might be posted to the division that needed them most, similarly with officers.

For the sake of our argument, we can see that the 24., 26., 28., and 29. divisions together with supporting assets would also be struck from the German OOB.

 

[Teep]

That's a cool map! But I would like to point out, that the distribution of garrisons shown there does not match the population density at all. Alsace-Lorraine and the Russian border in particular weren't nearly as populous as the map would indicate if they matched.

To add to what DoomBunny said another reason why there would be a lot of divisions in those areas would be the fact that the Poles, Alsatians and Lorrainers were not seen as completely reliable (on their respective fronts at least) and so would have elements from other regions to make sure their combat effectiveness did not suffer or would be transferred to other units. For example during WWI both the 1st Regular and 1st Reserve divisions were nominally recruited from East Prussia but due to a small population in that area were supplemented with Alsace-Lorrainers and others depending on the front. Some info from US intel estimates in 1917 confirms this:

Theoretically, the regiments of the 1st Division are recruited in East Prussia, but since the 1st Corps District, sparsely populated and of restricted size, could not keep) it up alone, the elements coming from outside this district are numerous. During the stay on the eastern front Alsace-Lorrainers were used in considerable number. While in France the division's ranks were filled up with the aid of the abundant resources of Brandenburg and Silesia (3rd and 4th Corps Districts); consequently, the division does not display to any degree the local character like the majority of the German divisions.

The division was recruited in East Prussia and, as a result of insufficient local resources, from divers (sic.) other localities—a great many Alsace-Lorrainers during the sojourn on the Russian front.

The 1st Reserve Division has taken part in all the important attacks which have taken place on the eastern front since the beginning of the war. It seems, however, from interrogation of deserters (in Champagne, November, 1917), that the cadres and men were little prepared for war as it was waged on the western front.

 

[DoomBunny]

Indeed. Sometimes such action proved somewhat justified, at other times it didn't. In the German case, there's very little evidence that the Alsace-Lorrainers were genuinely disloyal, at least at the start of the war. After several years of hardship and being told that they were traitorous things changed somewhat and desertion increased, but this was largely the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy; the authorities attempts to stop desertion by an alien minority simply resulted in the alienation of said minority.

However, in the Austro-Hungarian case there was substantial evidence of desertion by minorities. Later on the authorities attempted to counter this by mixing supposedly more reliable German units in with the minorities. In traditional Austro-Hungarian fashion, this simply resulted in all formations becoming unreliable.

 

[Teep]

Though to some extent that would be down to and likely necessitated to some extent by the decline of the multi-lingual pre-war officer corps in Austria-Hungary where the replacements didn't speak the two or three languages that their predecessors were required to and able to learn before the war. A similar issue had occured in earlier wars (there is a rather amusing story about some Austrian officers using mime to order their troops at Koeniggratz which was effective until night fell) and the teaching of languages was intended to fix that problem but it failed in a long war.

 

[Pellaken]

Just want to say a quick thanks to everyone who has posted in this thread; this is more in depth than I expected and fascinating!

 

[Sarmatia1871]

Not including the southern states is also going to have a large impact on German national politics, as the Catholic Centre Party (which was historically usually the biggest single grouping in the Reichstag, averaging between 90-100 seats out of c.400) is only going to be half its size without the constituencies in the Catholic south.

This means that the Reichstag is initially going to be easier to manage in the Bismarckian period through conservatives and national liberals, and potentially also means that the Kulturkampf might become more extreme or successful. However, it also means that the post-Bismarck realignment, where the Centre starts supporting the Reich government, couldn't be a particularly strong or solid block. So the Reichstag jamming up as the SPD become the largest party is going to happen earlier than it did historically, with the associated instability that this is going to cause.